I'm wrong almost half the time
South Bend, Indiana
Joined June 2020
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Reading @rxgamble Giona Fiore’s “Advantage Player” pre-release copy. I first met her 4 years ago in a blackjack seminar where she joked that she didn’t know perfect blackjack basic strategy and had edges more than 10% in 21. Sounds insane, but legit.
If @fliff legal tells you its TOS specifically prohibit shared devices as a basis for confiscating your funds, check the TOS. They don't. And if you resolve your case, every gaming/DFS/sweepstake site will require confidentiality in the release. This permits Fliff to arguably make a false claim to persuade you to settle for less. State Bars won't investigate it if it's still a civil dispute, and your confidentiality agreement deters you from making ethical complaints afterwards. If Fliff seizes your balance for any reason, you need to carefully review all their claims of fact. I have reviewed scores of cases against six different gaming companies in the last year, and none of the others so boldly flaunted the rules, seized so many balances, or had so many disputes.
Fed raises interest rates, my banks lower interest rates on savings. Kalshi raises interest rates to 3.5%. It's a stupid world where your money is better held at Kalshi than a bank.
If it's 4th and 2 from 40 yard line, you're down 1 in Q4. Your kicker will make this 65% of time. Based on time left, when do you go for it vs kick fg? Is there a score and time where punting is correct? Inspired by @coversvanzack and @robpizzola discussions today. Was discussing this today with a model programmer.
A not-so-theoretical question. You have 6 plays you like. The average price is -260, and you have a 4% edge on each. BUT you can only play in 3-team parlays. What is optimal full Kelly risk for all the parlays you put in combined as % of BR?
My opinion of prediction markets has shifted over the last month. Sportsbooks have to echo the PM consensus. In in-game, many of the PM consensus lines are pretty bad, even in very liquid markets. Efficient market theory for pregame is less lucrative than in-game with PM echo.
Q4 8:18 left, Atl receiving kickoff up 27-14. What are odds of a TD or FG for Atl on this drive? The drop is known as "the suckout".
In the gambling world, many people believe sharing ideas is at best a zero-sum game. In my experience, collaborating with others with no expectation of gain has been very positive. Tightly holding edges until they vanish is not nearly as valuable as sharing and exploring, finding out what you did wrong, and learning from others.
Interesting spot for math nerds in MNF. About 9 minutes left in game, Rams were about 120:1 favorite. Fair odds might be 240:1 fav. With $1m bank, what is optimal 1/3 Kelly wager? Some spots you have to be fearless.
Economics-gambling problem. What is our best guess that AI results in elimination of at least 50% of world population in the next 20 years? As an investor, how does this impact your risk of ruin? How do you mitigate it?