I’m out of town today and tomorrow taking in the great Fall sights in the Utah mountains so there’s no new Market Outlook, Market Outlook Live, or Free Friday video this week. I’ll be back Monday, October 19. Go Cougs! Beat the Irish 🏈

This is an important level for $QQQ. There are a LOT of touches here and not much volume below until it reaches $630. Considering the "fakeout" above $750 a couple of weeks ago, this is a little more vulnerable than the prior break in July.

The "selloff" at 1.99% off ATHs $SPX

The difference in returns over the past 16 days between $QQQ and $RSP is nearly 10%. Again, the last time we saw that was in July 2024. Interesting that both were hitting ATHS then but that's NOT the case right now with $RSP still 2% off its highs from 2 months ago.

The 10-day correlation between $SPX and $RSP is down to nearly -50%. This also happened earlier this year as well before the intermediate decline in March.

On Sep 30, $SPX was down 1.96% from its all-time closing high. Only 21.08% of its stocks were ABOVE their 50-day SMAs and only 39.56% of its stocks were ABOVE their 200-day SMAs. Today, $SPX is down 1.93% from its all-time closing high. Nearly identical. But... Now, 56.14% of its stocks are above their 50-day SMAs and 56.75% of its stocks are above their 200-day SMAs - bringing the ratio of the 2 averages down to nearly 1. Normally, as you can see on the chart, this is a CRAZY bullish pattern. UNLESS.... We get the same thing that happened in early 2025 as I've mentioned here multiple times before.

There's only been 1 other day like today in the past 5 years where $RSP outperforms $SPX by nearly 2% - July, 11, 2024. No other day is even close

The gap between the 8-day and 17-day EMAs and 30-day SMA is literally its smallest in 3 months. This typically precedes an expansion as the PPO in the lower panel is flirting with a breakout to new momentum. $SPX

The last 4 "bull tags" on $SPX set the low point for S&P 500 but they ALSO happened to start both of the past 2 very weak intermediate declines. With $RUT already well into a deep intermediate pullback and $NDX also now in its own confirmed intermediate pullback, does that mean we're just getting started now on $SPX? Or, are we setting the low for a 5th straight time?

As bad as it is for the big dogs, the "broadening trade" is holding up really well $RSP $IWM

Today's Risk Appetite dashboard. Notice a pattern? $SPX $SMH $XLK $RSP $HYG $IVW $IVE $EEM

Coming off a divergent high no less no matter what indicator you're looking at - RSI, CCI, DMI or PPO $XLK

With one more day left in the week, $XLK is breaking its 17-week EMA for the 1st time since the deep pullback we experienced earlier this year and, before that, the 2025 Q1 correction and, before that, the deep pullbacks of 2023 and 2024 and, before that, the 2022 correction 👀

Keep in mind, as great as this move in $RSP has been recently relative to $SPX, it's coming from a deeply oversold position. Our Risk Appetite Dashboard at @MarketScholars still shows mostly Risk Off conditions

👀 @ESPNCFB @KirkHerbstreit @cbfowler

This is graphic is so true. The middle section started with the muffed punt and extended through the fake punt failure into ND’s go-ahead TD in the 4th and then BYU throwing an INT. 🤪😭😤😵🥴