Rouhin Deb

The relentless expansion of cash transfers and subsidies deserves scrutiny as a contributor to our macroeconomic pressures. Policymakers defend these measures by pointing to higher spending and savings among recipients. But what else should we expect in the short run? The question is whether the benefits justify the full costs. Here is one possible cost. Transfers can increase demand, prices and wages in non-tradable activities, such as restaurants and haircuts, which largely serve local customers. This can raise wage costs for tradable businesses, such as garment and auto-component manufacturers, which compete with producers elsewhere. These firms must compete for local workers but cannot raise selling prices as easily without losing customers. If wages rise without corresponding productivity gains, competitiveness suffers. The resulting productivity costs could be long-lasting. If manufacturing investment and production shrink, opportunities for innovation and learning through production can shrink with them. A temporary consumption boost could therefore carry lasting costs to productive capacity. Over and above this, there are the familiar costs of financing these benefits: the burden on taxpayers and distortions from taxation, potentially higher interest rates from borrowing, and inflationary pressures from money creation. I understand that policy pieces are not academic papers. But there should be some discussion of costs alongside the benefits. Higher spending and savings among recipients are not, by themselves, evidence that a policy improves overall economic welfare.

Palmitoylation is essential for Leishmania donovani, the dreaded parasite that causes kala-azar. Here, my lab and that of Prof @shailjasingh75 discover a molecule that targets palmitoylation and blocks parasite survival and infectivity. Link to paper: pubs.acs.org/aidcbc/article-…

Continuing from my presentation at the Global Fintech Fest, let me explain what research at institutions such as ISB actually does and why society and the business world should care. We do not merely predict next quarter’s GDP, make random policy prescriptions, or support and oppose governments according to our political preferences. Serious research studies real problems using theory, data and methods that can withstand scrutiny. Good empirical research usually requires several years to collect data, establish cause and effect, and rule out alternative explanations. Publication can take several more years. Serious theoretical research is even harder. It requires building logically consistent models that generate new and testable predictions. I am not qualified to talk about theory (@adikuva can do that). Will focus on empirical research here Consider the paper I presented yeterday: “Data as a Public Good: The Case of Credit.” Millions of Indians lack access to formal credit because lenders know little about them. Technology is often presented as the solution: collect more data, build an algorithm and lend to more people. But lenders face a fundamental problem called selective labels. They observe repayment only for applicants they approve. They never learn whether rejected applicants would have repaid. Our central finding goes further. People with and without access to credit are structurally different. The same inputs, such as savings behaviour, demographics and credit history, map into repayment differently for the two groups. An algorithm trained only on existing borrowers may therefore fail when applied to excluded borrowers. This matters directly to fintechs. Using existing credit algorithms to expand lending may backfire. More sophisticated machine learning cannot recover repayment outcomes that were never observed. PM SVANidhi allows us to study and address this problem. The programme gave small, standardised unsecured loans to street vendors, including many whom conventional lenders would not have financed. We combined programme records with credit-bureau data, demographic information and millions of savings-account transactions. The paper provides an algorithm that uses these data to identify creditworthy borrowers among people traditionally excluded from formal finance. It is not the final answer. It gives fintechs a practical starting point. The next step is experimentation. Just as pharmaceutical companies test medicines before using them widely, fintechs should make carefully controlled loans to different borrower groups, observe repayment and develop algorithms suited to each segment. Reliable models cannot be built using only historically selected loans. Government can help generate this missing information. Once an excluded borrower receives and repays a loan, the resulting credit history benefits the entire financial system. This is why credit data have the characteristics of a public good. India produces far too little serious management research on its own firms, markets and public programmes. Commentary is abundant. Credible evidence is scarce. Some of us are trying to change that.

Friends, elated to announce that my second book Land of the Eastern Light: Assam Before the Ahoms published by @HarperCollinsIN is out for preorders! amzn.in/d/001rRn15

Vinamra Shraddhanjali to Mananeeya Balakrishnan Ji - All India President of Vivekananda Rock Memorial and Vivekananda Kendra Kanyakumari. vrmvk.com/jmUQc #vivekanandakendra #seva

The forgotten star of Myanmar! Srinivasan Ramani, a veteran editor @ The Hindu, presents an empathetic, full-page portrayal of The Lady. ASSK awaits her freedom, and her nation a return to national dialogue for durable resolution. How much longer will the wait be?

When an organisation completes a hundred years of existence—not merely in name, but with remarkable growth, extensive branching, and deep roots—it naturally evokes curiosity. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is one such organisation. Many perceive it as a movement rooted primarily in mainland India, with little awareness of its quiet but sustained work across the frontiers of Northeast India. 𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝: 𝑨 𝑪𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝑺𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒉 𝑷𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒗𝒂𝒓 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑵𝒐𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒕, 𝐑𝐨𝐮𝐡𝐢𝐧 𝐃𝐞𝐛 and 𝐍𝐚𝐛𝐚𝐚𝐫𝐮𝐧 𝐁𝐚𝐫𝐨𝐨𝐚𝐡 have delved deep into this largely untold history, presenting a well-researched account of the Sangh Parivar’s journey in the region over the past century. In his foreword, Dr. Himanta Biswa Sarma describes the book as a “seminal work” that reflects the authors’ “intellectual rigour, historical acumen and insightful exploration” of the Sangh Parivar’s evolution in one of India’s most culturally diverse regions. He observes that through meticulous research, the authors have highlighted the organisation’s humanitarian endeavours, its efforts to foster cultural consciousness, and its sustained engagement in education and social welfare. The book traces the evolution of the Sangh Parivar in the Northeast from its modest beginnings to its present-day presence across all eight states. It documents the work of numerous organisations engaged in education, tribal welfare, social service, cultural preservation, youth mobilisation and nation-building. More importantly, it places these developments within the wider historical context of the region’s complex social and political transformations. One of the book’s greatest strengths is its extensive use of archival material, personal accounts and organisational records. It brings to light the contributions of countless dedicated workers whose quiet service seldom finds mention in mainstream narratives, while also examining the challenges and opportunities of working in one of India’s most diverse and geographically remote regions. As Dr. Sarma aptly notes, works such as this help ensure that the history of the Northeast is told “with authenticity, depth and a commitment to intellectual honesty.” He expresses the hope that the book will serve as a cornerstone for scholars, policymakers and citizens seeking a deeper understanding of the region’s evolving political and cultural landscape. Whether one approaches it from the perspective of history, politics, sociology or public life, From Frontiers to the Heartland is an important contribution to documenting a century of social and organisational work in Northeast India. It is a worthwhile read for anyone interested in understanding the forces that have shaped the region’s contemporary history. #BookReview #FromFrontiersToTheHeartland #NortheastIndia #History #RSS #SanghParivar #Reading @deb_rouhin @BarooahNabaarun

Brilliant A. K. Bhattacharya on how India’s examination crisis is fundamentally a jobs crisis

So many articles on youth discontent, unemployment (data for which has been known for years), inadequate income growth opportunities. Far fewer pointing out growth and investment (together with better skilling) are the only real solutions and none of them can come with a stroke of the pen.