New York, NY
Joined June 2008
Folks should be following @GabrielEpsteinX for all data analysis on Israel's election and more.
Israel goes to the polls in a consequential election tomorrow, more than three years after October 7 and four years after the last election in 2022. With polls indicating an indecisive election, the final trends and things to watch on election day: ๐Ÿงต
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David A. Halperin retweeted
Ahead of tomorrowโ€™s election, IPFโ€™s @mkoplow examines in @nytopinion how Netanyahu has largely avoided political accountability for October 7 while maintaining a loyal base of supporters through his narrative of Israeli military successes. Gift link: nytimes.com/2026/10/26/opiniโ€ฆ
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David A. Halperin retweeted
After October 7, the Israeli election shouldnโ€™t be close, yet the likeliest scenario is deadlock. Bibiโ€™s staying power is partially because of splits in the opposition, but also because many Israelis think heโ€™s delivering what he long promised nytimes.com/2026/10/26/opiniโ€ฆ
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Who is Gadi Eisenkot, the Israeli centrist seeking to defeat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tuesdayโ€™s elections? What would his election mean for Israel's policy toward the Palestinians? I asked @ShiraEfron of @RANDCorporation:
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Netanyahu today: Israel is in existential danger because of Iranโ€™s nuclear program. Netanyahu 12 days ago: โ€œWe eliminated the Iranโ€™s nuclear threat.โ€
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David A. Halperin retweeted
Written tributes are being requested in memory of Abdulaziz Alghashian, the Saudi political researcher and commentator who died suddenly in Riyadh on Oct. 18 arab.news/jyn5v
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ื ืชื ื™ื”ื• ืœืคื ื™ ืขืฉื•ืจ: ืื ื™ ืื—ื–ืง ืืช ืžืขืžื“ ื™ืฉืจืืœ ื‘ืขื•ืœื, ืชื”ื™ื” ืœื ื• ืžื“ื™ื ื” ื—ื–ืงื” ืขื ื™ื—ืกื™ ื—ื•ืฅ ืžืขื•ืœื™ื. ื ืชื ื™ื”ื• ื”ื™ื•ื: ื ืชื‘ืฆืจ ืขืœ ื”ืจ ืงื™ืจื— ื‘ืžื“ื‘ืจ ื™ื”ื•ื“ื” ื•ื ืื’ื•ืจ ืžื˜ื‘ืขื•ืช ื•ื™ืจื˜ื•ืืœื™ื™ื.
ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ืœื–ื”ื•ืช?: "ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ืชืืจื’ืŸ ื‘ื›ืœื›ืœื” ืขื•ืงืคืช ืœืกื ืงืฆื™ื•ืช ื‘ื ืงืื™ื•ืช, ื”ื‘ืœื•ืงืฆ'ื™ื™ืŸ ื”ื•ื ื—ืœื•ืคื”, ื‘ื™ืงืฉืชื™ ืœื”ื›ื™ืŸ ืชื›ื ื™ื•ืช ืœื–ื”". ื ืชื ื™ื”ื• ื‘ืจืื™ื•ืŸ ืœืขืจื•ืฅ 10 ืขืœ ื”ื”ื™ืขืจื›ื•ืช ืœื—ืจื ื›ืœื›ืœื™ ื‘ื™ื ืœืื•ืžื™ ื•ืกื ืงืฆื™ื•ืช ื›ืœื›ืœื™ื•ืช ืขืœ ื™ืฉืจืืœ
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David A. Halperin retweeted
Palestinian political renewal is essential to building a credible partner for peace. IPF Policy Fellow Ibrahim Dalalsha argues that sustained U.S. engagement is needed to strengthen accountable Palestinian institutions and support credible elections. israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1โ€ฆ
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David A. Halperin retweeted
Just how split are Israeli pollsters on the fate of small parties Reservists-Economy and Amcha Israel, bouncing around the 3.25% threshold? Based on the latest polls: - Both enter the Knesset: Channel 16 - Neither enter the Knesset: i24 and Channel 14 - Reservists-Economy enters, Amcha Israel falls below: Kan/Israel Hayom, Maariv/Walla, Channel 13, and Zman Israel - Amcha Israel enters, Reservists-Economy falls below: Channel 12 Five pollsters project Reservists-Economy entering and two project Amcha Israel entering. But at the threshold, tiny polling differences, whether signal or noise, are the difference between 0 and 4 seats. Neither party is in a safe place: when they cross the threshold, it is by inches.
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David A. Halperin retweeted
Farah Bdour: "The danger is that deteriorating political and social relations will eventually undermine security cooperation itself, weakening one of the treatyโ€™s most important achievements: enabling Israel and Jordan to manage their differences without resorting to confrontation." Farah Bdour is a Jordanian political analyst, conflict resolution specialist, and peacebuilding practitioner working at the intersection of Arab-Israeli diplomacy, regional security, and Track II engagement. Her work focuses on dialogue, mediation, reconciliation, and advancing regional cooperation through policy and civil society initiatives across the Middle East. *The posts on The Blogs are contributed by third parties, and don't necessarily reflect the views of The Times of Israel. Read more: blogs.timesofisrael.com/dearโ€ฆ
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David A. Halperin retweeted
"A March analysis by Israel Policy Forum found that there have been more attacks against Palestinians by Jews in the West Bank than by Palestinians against Jews. All of this is inexcusable. Yet the most pressing problem is not the sheer number of attacks; it is the Israeli governmentโ€™s apparent disinterest in stopping them." - @yardenas in @TheFP: thefp.com/p/the-violent-settโ€ฆ
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David A. Halperin retweeted
Peace with Jordan is a foundation of Israeli security, writes IPF Policy Fellow @TheFarahBdour in @TimesofIsraelโ€”arguing stronger borders cannot replace the diplomacy and cooperation that have helped sustain itโ€”and warns against taking it for granted. blogs.timesofisrael.com/dearโ€ฆ
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David A. Halperin retweeted
Interesting -- Channel 16's final poll going into elections (absolutely enormous sample size to have a 1.5% margin of error) shows both Amcha Israel and Reservists-Economy passing the electoral threshold. Even with a smaller margin of error, that still doesn't place either cleanly over the threshold, however. A bad result for Likud with 17 seats, but again no pathway to 61 for either bloc. A mainstream opposition + Ra'am + Reservists-Economy coalition (no sure thing) would have only 59 seats according to this poll, requiring reliance on the Joint List or some other faction for to backstop the coalition.
ืžืขืœ 5,000 ื ืฉืืœื™ื: ื”ืกืงืจ ื”ืื—ืจื•ืŸ ื•ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœ ื‘ื™ืฉืจืืœ @RotemGolan_ @JacobEilon
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David A. Halperin retweeted
My latest convo with my favorite podcast partners @NeriZilber and @ShiraEfron
๐ŸŽง๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธLatest #IsraelPolicyPod w/ @mkoplow + @ShiraEfron previewing next week's Israeli election: โ€”Reporter's Notebook (Heidi Levine) โ€”How is Bibi still in this? โ€”State of the opposition โ€”Electoral threshold, Arab vote, Liberman โ€”Can either side win? โ€”Remembering @AzizAlghashian + more israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1โ€ฆ
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David A. Halperin retweeted
Seven Jewish organizations representing Conservative, Reform, and Reconstructionist Judaism have issued a joint statement condemning the detention of Israeli and American rabbis, alongside dozens of others, while helping a Palestinian family harvest olives. They call for the need to protect Palestinian farmers from violent settlers.
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David A. Halperin retweeted
So Netanyahu is making his closing argument that he and Trump will "finish the job" of changing the regime in Iran. Never mind that the war launched seven months ago has not come close to that goal. Never mind that the war has caused a global economic and energy shock that shows no sign of abating. Never mind that Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily challenged at tremendous cost by the US military, will be a long-term outcome of this war. Never mind that regime change through air power has no chance of success. Never mind that an actual military regime change strategy would require major US ground forces and casualties, something deeply opposed by the American people. And Trump, for his part, is no longer focused on the illusion of regime change. He is looking for a deal. Something on Hormuz, something on Iran's nuclear program. Maybe after landing some additional blows, say at Pickaxe Mountain. Essentially something that will allow him to declare victory and walk away. And he hopes that Iran's retaliation for the blows don't completely upend the global economy. There are so many targets in the Gulf Iran has not struck yet -- energy, AI, infrastructure -- and the Saudis are tied up in a battle with the Houthis that could sink them. An attempt to "finish the job" will come at enormous cost. It's completely understandable that Israelis pine for the end of the Iranian regime, which for decades has called for Israel's destruction, and armed terrorist organizations, pursued a nuclear program, and rained missiles on Israel in pursuit of that goal. In that, Israelis share the goal of millions of Iranians. As soon as this stupid, failed war ends, all nations should recommit to helping the Iranian people free themselves from this tyranny. That is something that must come from within Iran. But an empty, last-minute pledge by a struggling prime minister to "finish the job", as alluring as it might sound, is just a promise of a forever war, one that the United States, even under Trump's misguided leadership, is not going to undertake, and one that Israel could not see through on its own.
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David A. Halperin retweeted
For anyone who thinks that it is fine for Israel to arrest Americans harvesting olives (which is a legit debate even as I strongly disagree), this is a former deputy attorney general of Israel. This govt canโ€™t stop digging itself into a deeper and deeper hole.
ื›ืจื’ืข ืืžืจื• ืœื™ ืฉืื ื™ ืžืขื•ื›ื‘ ื‘ืืฉืžืช ืžืกื™ืง ื–ื™ืชื™ื. ื‘ื“ืจืš ืœืชื—ื ืช ืžืฉื˜ืจื”. ื™ืฆืืชื™ ื™ื—ื“ ืขื ื›ืžื” ืขืฉืจื•ืช ื™ืฉืจืืœื™ื ืžื˜ืขื ืงื•ืœ ืจื‘ื ื™ ืœื–ื›ื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ืื“ื ื•ื”ืฆื˜ืจืคื• ื’ื ื›ืžื” ืขืฉืจื•ืช ืจื‘ื ื™ื ืžืืจื”ืดื‘. ืื—ืจื™ ื›ืฉืขืชื™ื™ื ื•ื—ืฆื™ ืขื‘ื•ื“ื” ื”ื’ื™ืขื• ื›ื•ื—ื•ืช ื’ื“ื•ืœื™ื ืฉืœ ืžืฉื˜ืจื”, ืžื’ืดื‘ ื•ืฆื‘ื. ื”ืชื‘ืงืฉื ื• ืœื”ืคืกื™ืง ื•ื›ื•ืœื ื ืฉืžืขื•. ืœื ื”ื™ื” ื—ื™ื›ื•ืš ื›ืœืฉื”ื• ืขื ืžืชื ื—ืœื™ื ืื• ืขื ื›ื•ื—ื•ืช ื”ื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ. ื”ืืžืจื™ืงื ื™ื ื”ื•ืขืœื• ืœืื•ื˜ื•ื‘ื•ืก ืื—ื“, ื•ื”ื™ืฉืจืืœื™ื ืœืžื™ื ื™ื‘ื•ืกื™ื. ื”ื–ื™ื” ืžื•ื—ืœื˜ืช.
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Answer: A lot. But tune in for more
Whatโ€™s at stake in Israelโ€™s next election? Join our Israeli Elections webinar tomorrow, Tuesday, Oct. 20, at 2pm ET to hear @mkoplow, @ShiraEfron, and @RCBrandenburg analyze the policy implications of potential outcomes. Register: israelpolicyforum.zoom.us/weโ€ฆ
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David A. Halperin retweeted
Whatโ€™s at stake in Israelโ€™s next election? Join our Israeli Elections webinar tomorrow, Tuesday, Oct. 20, at 2pm ET to hear @mkoplow, @ShiraEfron, and @RCBrandenburg analyze the policy implications of potential outcomes. Register: israelpolicyforum.zoom.us/weโ€ฆ
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