software engineer; Not Financial Advice. shitposts; holdings: $baba
Seattle / LA
Joined February 2018
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Take a good look at this study. 🤯
This might change how you look at market panic.
I went back nearly 20 YEARS and pulled up every time the VIX jumped more than 40% in a single day.
Then I looked at what happened to $SPY after 1 week, 2 weeks and 1 month.
The results are pretty damn interesting.
Some of the biggest opportunities showed up when everyone was convinced the market was falling apart.
But here's the catch. Not every VIX spike marked the bottom.
I've always believed that fear creates opportunities, but knowing when to put your money to work is what really matters.
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$QQQ we have almost reached our target drawn almost a month ago
We did not get here today in a way that makes it easy to say if we are almost done but it's a heavy support zone (hence why I had it as my target before all of this)
There is more support below 639 so not all would be lost but let's see how the market reacts first 🤝
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Breaking: Michael Burry updated his portfolio
He:
• Holding puts in Palantir $PLTR
• Holding puts in Caterpillar $CAT
• Holding puts in QQQ $QQQ
• Holding puts in Oracle $ORCL
• Sold 25% of Semiconductor ETF $SMH puts
• Increased position by 50% MercadoLibre $MELI, "bought under $1,500"
Burry says the $SMH puts are "still very large" even after the sale, per his Substack
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BREAKING: Utah criminally charges Kalshi's CEO and COO with 13 counts of illegal gambling
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JUST IN: Leopold Aschenbrenners Fund (Situational Awareness) has reportedly officially blown up…
These are the current (now liquidated) holdings:
- $MU bought at $1,153, now $703, (-39%)
- $CORZ bought at $25.6, now $11.1, (-56%)
- $SNDK bought at $2,268, now $874, (-61%)
- $NBIS bought at $273, now $121, (-55%)
- $CRWV bought at $99, now $42, (-57%)
- $BE bought at $301, now $165, (-45%)
Use him as a lesson why you NEVER over-leverage into high risk positions.
That concludes an end of an era…
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Largest hedge fund de-grossing event in 10 years and CTAs equity positioning lowest since March.
If we rally hard into year-end, can't say there weren't signs.
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💀
I am going to make a bold and early call. @VivekGRamaswamy will run for POTUS and win. I think the country is ready for his message. He is young, smart, talented and will attract the center to the right to win. He speaks hard truths which many believe but fear to say.
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BREAKING: The S&P 500 has now erased -$2.2 trillion over the last 55 minutes.
Today's decline is now double the size of yesterday's post-election rally.
The Nasdaq 100 is ~6% away from a bear market.
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BREAKING: US technology stocks collapse at the open, erasing -$1.3 trillion in market cap in 30 minutes, with dozens of names down 10% or more.
Tech Stocks Today:
1. SanDisk, $SNDK: -15%
2. Western Digital, $WDC: -13%
3. Nebius, $NBIS: -13%
4. AMD, $AMD: -12%
5. Seagate, $STX: -12%
6. Qualcomm, $QCOM: -10%
7. Micron, $MU: -10%
8. Tesla, $TSLA: -10%
9. Dell, $DELL: -10%
10. Arm, $ARM: -10%
11. Marvell Technology, $MRVL: -10%
12. CrowdStrike, $CRWD: -10%
13. Intel, $INTC: -9%
14. CoreWeave, $CRWV: -8%
15. Palantir, $PLTR: -8%
16. SpaceX, $SPCX: -7%
17. TSMC, $TSM: -7%
18. Nvidia, $NVDA: -5%
19. Broadcom, $AVGO: -5%
20. Oracle, $ORCL: -5%
The Nasdaq 100 is now down -4% on the day.
We expect a highly eventful day ahead.
Turn on our post notifications @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.