Yèyé Balógun Efe

Zero Equilibrium® Macro and Markets: USD, Gold and US Treasuries Pause Ahead of Fed Decision Summary: • The Fed delivered the pause ZE anticipated, but tightening risks persist. The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00% in a split 10–2 decision, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack favouring a 25-basis-point hike. Elevated inflation keeps further tightening in December on the table. • The initial market response indicates limited cross-asset repricing. The DXY stood at 102.145 pre-decision, gold at $4,051.75 and the US 10-year Treasury yield above 5%. Post-decision, the dollar softened, while sovereign bond yields moved unevenly, suggesting no decisive shift in financial conditions. • Fixed income, equities and commodities face conditional outlooks. Lower yields could support Treasury prices, growth stocks and gold, but persistent inflation and elevated long-term yields could constrain gains. Industrial commodities remain sensitive to both supply pressures and demand conditions. • Bitcoin and Ethereum remain technically vulnerable. Both traded below their 50-day moving averages, with bearish daily MACD readings, despite remaining above their 200-day averages. Near-term support levels remain critical to assessing recovery prospects. • ZE favours another pause at the December 8–9 FOMC meeting, conditional on incoming data. Treasury yields, the DXY, equity breadth, gold and crypto momentum will help determine whether financial conditions ease. The pause buys time, but the tightening cycle may not be over. Read more of our thoughts and analytical research in the link below: 0equilibrium.substack.com/p/… #Fed #FederalReserve #FinancialMarkets #Macroeconomics #ZeroEquilibrium