
#BuildTheFuture - 🧬 bio, 🦾 robots, 🤖 ai @celltonomy
Bay Area, USA
Joined May 2008
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How much better will AI be, when?
Some GPT-assisted rough estimates.
Step 1: How much compute, when?
inevitable
Replying to @basedjensen
the only thing that can stop a bad swarm with a gun is a good swarm with a gun
how's the hack-back coming?..
The China state-aligned threat actor Storm-0940 used the agentic AI penetration testing framework ARTEX to automate attacks targeting hundreds of organizations globally across a broad range of industries. Microsoft Threat Intelligence assesses that Storm-0940 was responsible for the recently disclosed ConnectWise supply chain compromise of a multitenant application. msft.it/6018aakEE
Our investigation found that Storm-0940's use of ARTEX accelerated the speed of compromised application abuse to authenticate to target environments through applications that had already been granted access, allowing the threat actor to operate without requiring an interactive user sign-in. AI-accelerated follow-on activity included reconnaissance, application credential changes, and attempts to modify privileges that could enable expanded or persistent access.
Read our blog for a detailed analysis and indicators of compromise (IOCs), along with Microsoft Defender detections, protection recommendations, and guidance on investigating service principal sign-ins and unexpected application credential or privilege changes.
feels like we need either or both of an always-on roaming whitehat auto-scan-and-patch system and whitehat active counter-hacker...
Is this the new cyber security normal (yes) or the opening act of the 'inevitable cyber 9/11' the foreign policy types have been warning about forever (maybe?)
Appendix 2/3 — Research feedback
We extend Thomas Kwa’s model of AI automating AI research with compute limits, deployment lag and research quality. Four research-return cases; no probabilities assigned.
metr.org/notes/2026-02-10-si…
arxiv.org/abs/2512.00193
openai.com/index/research-ac…
Appendix 3/3 — Capability & IQ
Our model links effective compute to ECI, then fits ECI to reasoning-test scores. Extending both relationships is a forecast assumption; human-IQ equivalence is unvalidated.
arxiv.org/abs/2512.00193
epoch.ai/data/eci-documentat…
trackingai.org/about
_do_ need
think today’s php disclosure is a harbinger of things to come. these models will make us all safer by finding long lurking issues.
however the entire software supply chain will need the muscles to rapidly build and deploy fixes.
we might need a lot more public + private partnerships to secure infrastructure across the country.
feels like we need a gov program to pay OAI/Anth/etc to auto-hack-n-patch everyone
@grok what's your take on the projections / analysis in this thread? reasonable conclusions or no?
Do you agree?
Replying to @estill01
Which yields an expected AI IQ-equivalent of ~190–225 by 2030, and ~225–340 by 2036... 🧐











