#BuildTheFuture - 🧬 bio, 🦾 robots, 🤖 ai @celltonomy

Bay Area, USA
Joined May 2008
How much better will AI be, when? Some GPT-assisted rough estimates. Step 1: How much compute, when?
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broad strokes agree
Govt should get the Big 5 labs to dedicate at least 20% compute to cybersecurity right now and subsidize part of the tokens. Chinese bots reaking havoc is the closest thing to a kinetic war we'll have on our homeland. NSA / DoW needs to lock in rn.
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inevitable
Replying to @basedjensen
the only thing that can stop a bad swarm with a gun is a good swarm with a gun
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so you're saying it's a 'buy' signal on the frontier lab secondaries as the only cyber security vendors that matter now?
The NSA is telling American companies to take production systems offline. The AI-era of cybersecurity has fully arrived.
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how's the hack-back coming?..
The China state-aligned threat actor Storm-0940 used the agentic AI penetration testing framework ARTEX to automate attacks targeting hundreds of organizations globally across a broad range of industries. Microsoft Threat Intelligence assesses that Storm-0940 was responsible for the recently disclosed ConnectWise supply chain compromise of a multitenant application. msft.it/6018aakEE Our investigation found that Storm-0940's use of ARTEX accelerated the speed of compromised application abuse to authenticate to target environments through applications that had already been granted access, allowing the threat actor to operate without requiring an interactive user sign-in. AI-accelerated follow-on activity included reconnaissance, application credential changes, and attempts to modify privileges that could enable expanded or persistent access. Read our blog for a detailed analysis and indicators of compromise (IOCs), along with Microsoft Defender detections, protection recommendations, and guidance on investigating service principal sign-ins and unexpected application credential or privilege changes.
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feels like we need either or both of an always-on roaming whitehat auto-scan-and-patch system and whitehat active counter-hacker...
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Is this the new cyber security normal (yes) or the opening act of the 'inevitable cyber 9/11' the foreign policy types have been warning about forever (maybe?)
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Appendix 2/3 — Research feedback We extend Thomas Kwa’s model of AI automating AI research with compute limits, deployment lag and research quality. Four research-return cases; no probabilities assigned. metr.org/notes/2026-02-10-si… arxiv.org/abs/2512.00193 openai.com/index/research-ac…
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Appendix 3/3 — Capability & IQ Our model links effective compute to ECI, then fits ECI to reasoning-test scores. Extending both relationships is a forecast assumption; human-IQ equivalence is unvalidated. arxiv.org/abs/2512.00193 epoch.ai/data/eci-documentat… trackingai.org/about
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_do_ need
think today’s php disclosure is a harbinger of things to come. these models will make us all safer by finding long lurking issues. however the entire software supply chain will need the muscles to rapidly build and deploy fixes. we might need a lot more public + private partnerships to secure infrastructure across the country.
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feels like we need a gov program to pay OAI/Anth/etc to auto-hack-n-patch everyone
1/ pretty bad out there. We have to fix the last 50 years of software and internet sloppiness. Faster than adversaries can find the holes, and faster than we ship new ones (with agents!). CVEs went from ~4k a month to ~15k since April. That is not business as usual.
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@grok what's your take on the projections / analysis in this thread? reasonable conclusions or no?
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Do you agree?
Replying to @estill01
Which yields an expected AI IQ-equivalent of ~190–225 by 2030, and ~225–340 by 2036... 🧐
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How big will the biggest training runs be?
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