
trying to apply data to football intelligently; @beyond90ftbl; DM for inquiries
Florida, USA
Joined January 2017
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My new player Action Impact Model (AIM), explained.
If you have an interest in football analytics, I encourage you to give this a read and share any thoughts or feedback for improvements.
🤝
The Action Impact Model medium.com/@spencerpmossman/…
📊🇺🇸 Santi Castañeda, passing + oop data evolution from 2. Bundesliga ➡️ Bunesliga
- 2nd MOTM so far this season today vs. Hamburger
- conservative passer, but elite oop
- Tampa's own; you'll be hearing a lot more about him from me if he keeps up this level
Jackson x Manzambi x Mbaye in Villa’s colors/aesthetic is the most moved I’ve been about a team I don’t support in as long as I can remember
Two fun updates (for me) from my models heading into the weekend:
- Alex Freeman: currently the highest 'anchor FB' score of any T5 u23 w/ 450+ minutes in the past nine seasons
- Ifeanyi Ndukwe: currently 8th among T5 u23 CBs w/ 300+ minutes this season
On Freeman: This model is meant to identify the future stars at 'defensive'/'inverted' RBs, and even outside center backs in a back three. You can see by the names its mostly the third of those three things, which I think is a feature not a bug as you can manually pick out the names further down that are true full backs if that's what you're looking for. The center-back type names are more a product of how Wyscout labels their players, plus, wouldn't you want this type of full back to perform like a center back anyways? Also, many of the names are seasons at a 'premier' club, whereas Freeman is still at his stepping stone club I believe. Very early days into the season, but he's looking like a legit top level prospect so far.
On Ndukwe: Second highest u19 score, just very fun to see as a Liverpool supporter. Also, this (and all of my models) are meant to be 'future predicting', not representative of current state, so the fact that Jeremy Jacquet currently ranks below him doesn't mean Ndukwe is either 1) a better 'prospect' or 2) better flat out at the present; it means the things he's done in a very small sample this season are a slightly closer match to what the current 'best in the world' CBs were doing in their u19/u21/u23 days. Its a bit of information, not the law.
When I refer to "Self-Creating Strikers", this is what I'm talking about.
Not all SCS are or will be elite, and not all of the elites have this trait (clearly).
But I still believe the 'market' underrates the value + ability to perform across teams that this profile provides.
🇩🇪 Paris Brunner; data evolution from Cercle Brugge ➡️ Monaco
My favorite brand of striker is the one found at the intersection of high quality chances and self-created shots; Kylian Mbappe, Hugo Ekitike, Georges Mikautadze, Nicolas Jackson... Paris Brunner.
🚨New Video
@fc_mossman & @Kish_P14 are back with a video on Monaco Striker, Paris Brunner who scored again last night.
a massive talent who will for sure be part of the future of the german national team.🇩🇪
Video in comments👇
To be clear I am saying he creates his own shots and finds high quality chances like those players. If you plot any kind of self-created shot or productive dribble vs. big chances or quality of shot metric, those will be the 'top right' strikers.
He's not exactly like any of them, but shares various additional traits with all of them.
Just so people don't run with this and say "he's the next Mbappe" (complimentary) or "he's the next Nicolas Jackson" (derogatory, although for me it is complimentary)
Curious if this is a pervasive feeling among people who actually watch our videos?
Kish makes LOADS of content across multiple channels, our producer and I both have full time jobs in addition to this. Multiple hours of prep + shooting + editing for every video that we do multiple times a week. We make like a couple dollars per video, paying someone to make the thumbnails isn’t tenable.
Are we really viewed as cutting corners here?
Josh Acheampong finally has a real enough minutes sample to evaluate his performances over the past two seasons.
Spoiler: he's really good.
🚨New Video
@Kish_P14 & @fc_mossman dive deep into the game of Josh Acheampong and his importance to unlocking this Chelsea side. 🔵
about time.
full video in comments below 👇
United last season under Carrick:
- 0.103 xG allowed per shot, 11.7% of shots faced were big chances
This season:
- 0.132 xG allowed per shot, 25% of shots faced are big chances
25% increase in chance quality allowed, 25% (!!) of shots faced are big chances. Wild.
Replying to @fc_mossman
Exactly
We're conceding more dangerous opportunities more frequently than we did last season
Not surprising we're conceding more now
We were forcing teams to shoot from less dangerous zones at least last season
Now they're shooting more freely
xitter.cf/PureAngles/status/2112…
Interesting trend with United's success last season under Carrick vs. struggles this year:
- last year, goals conceded were 83% of xG faced, and xGOT faced was nearly identical to xG
- this year, goals conceded are 116% of xG faced, but its right on par with xGOT faced
Basically, United's opponents "finished chances" at a median rate last season, but were prevented from scoring (perhaps from goalkeeping?).
This season, opponents are finishing above expected, and goals allowed aligns with that.
Also, xG allowed is up 16%.
Spencer Mossman retweeted
🔴A statement performance from Rio Ngumoha (18) tonight:
7 dribbles completed
12 touches in the opposition box
2 assists
8/10 ground duels won
He was unplayable. A message to Iraola to say that he’s too good to be leaving on the bench
Utterly relentless and improving with every game he plays, what an absolute nightmare matchup for any full-back
superstar in waiting.🏴
📊🏴 Ryan Kavuma-McQueen, data report
Gets into the box, creates his own shot, and has done so at a historically high rate so far this season (albeit in a small minutes sample).
Can't ask for much more from an 18 y/o playing his first real spell of senior minutes.
We’ve had issues progressing and building quickly pretty much since the moment he left the squad, but nobody wants to talk about that.
Leave your ego at the door and the answer becomes very apparent.
📊 There's a problem with line breaking passes (or the Premier League)
TLDR: PL midfielders break a line once out of every 4 completed passes, the other T5 leagues average one out of every 11.
The data is either wrong (most likely, I hope) or the PL is a different sport rn.














