WHY $MU COULD TRIPLE FROM HERE The easiest way to understand the new Micron bull case is that D.A. Davidson is no longer treating this as a normal memory upcycle where investors should assume pricing eventually collapses and the stock deserves a permanently low multiple. Their $3,000 target implies roughly 20x annualized Q1 earnings by my math versus around 7x today, so the thesis requires two things to happen together. Earnings need to stay much higher for much longer than the market expects, and investors eventually need to stop valuing Micron like a commodity business. The reason that feels increasingly plausible is that management is still describing supply as tight through 2027 and 2028 while demand is coming from hyperscalers and AI leaders like $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $NVDA and $AAPL which creates a much more durable customer base than the PC and handset driven cycles investors are used to underwriting. The part I think is most interesting is the de speccing argument because what looks bearish at first can actually reinforce how constrained the market is. When customers reduce memory content inside a system, like $TSLA cutting AI5 to 72GB or $NVDA shipping a 64GB DGX Spark, they are not necessarily saying they need less memory long term. They are often trying to ship more systems today with the limited memory they can secure. That can temporarily lower memory per device while expanding the installed base much faster, which then creates even more pressure to restore performance and increase memory content once supply becomes available. The risk is that some optimization becomes permanent but if customers are sacrificing specifications simply to get more hardware into the field, that is usually evidence of scarcity rather than weakening demand. The other structural change is Micron’s Strategic Customer Agreements because management is deliberately trading some peak pricing upside for a much higher floor. With roughly half of future supply increasingly covered by long term agreements, Micron gets better visibility into customer demand while still leaving enough open capacity to participate when spot pricing moves higher, which starts looking much more like yield management than the old memory model of producing first and hoping demand shows up later. The fact that these agreements are backed by enormous customers and roughly $32B of mostly cash commitments makes the demand visibility harder to dismiss, while competitors adopting similar structures could make the entire industry less prone to the oversupply mistakes that historically destroyed memory pricing. That is ultimately why I think a path toward $3,000 no longer sounds as crazy as the headline suggests because the stock does not need some absurd valuation if the earnings base itself proves more durable. If Micron can keep compounding volume and pricing through 2028, HBM and conventional DRAM remain constrained, enterprise NAND keeps benefiting from AI workloads and the SCA structure raises the trough of the next cycle, then both earnings estimates and the multiple can move higher at the same time. China remains a real competitive risk and long term agreements only prove their value when pricing finally softens, but the market is still largely pricing Micron as though today’s earnings are close to a peak while management and the supply data increasingly point toward a multi year shortage, and that gap between what the business may earn and how cheaply the market is valuing those earnings is where the triple from here can come from.