Utah DNP (bad at twitter)
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Incredible stuff from Hunter, as always
Utah V ᗺ⅄∩: The Holy War preview 🔴🔵
Buckle up folks. This is going to be a good one. Stats provided by @PEARatings (PR), @gameonpaper (GP), and @TeamRankings (TR).
Some say you can throw stats out the window in this game. I say... yeah, probably... but I'm going to dive in anyways!
Key efficiency metrics:
Offensive Points/Play (TR):
Utah: .492(16th)
ᗺ⅄∩: .450(37th)
Defensive Points/Play (TR):
Utah: .246(15th)
ᗺ⅄∩: .290(27th)
Offensive EPA/Play (GP):
Utah: +.13 (19th)
ᗺ⅄∩: +.11 (27th)
Defensive EPA/Play (GP):
Utah: -.13 (28th)
ᗺ⅄∩: -.09 (40th)
Offensive Success Rates (GP):
Utah: 50.5% (8th)
ᗺ⅄∩: 48.0% (25th)
Defensive Success Rates (GP):
Utah: 39.4% (19th)
ᗺ⅄∩: 43.2% (56th)
Explosiveness (TR)
Offensive Yards/Play:
Utah: 6.5 (12th)
ᗺ⅄∩: 6.1 (28th)
Defensive Yards/Play:
Utah: 5.3 (51st)
ᗺ⅄∩: 4.5 (16th)
Turnover Margin/Game (TR):
Utah +.01 (52nd)
ᗺ⅄∩: -.04 (97th)
Let's break it down. Utah outweighs ᗺ⅄∩ in nearly every meaningful efficiency category with exception to limiting explosive plays in terms of yards/play. It is also worth noting that the 3 game trends are up for Utah and down for ᗺ⅄∩.
Though Utah is statistically doing more, the teams are still pretty even. There are a few areas that are worth paying attention to here that may define this game.
Utah's offensive success rate v ᗺ⅄∩'s defensive success rate. About 7% is a more significant margin than it would appear.
Turnovers have been a big factor in the Holy War, the last 3 games ᗺ⅄∩ has generated 7 turnovers to Utah's 0. This year, ᗺ⅄∩ isn't taking the ball away like they have been in recent years, they haven't turned it over much either. Utah has generate a lot of turnovers, and they have given up turnovers as well.
Let's talk playstyles.
Utah on offense has largely been great this year. There have been times where Utah gets off schedule, out of sync and really slows down. That can't happen if Utah wants to win this one.
ᗺ⅄∩ on offense runs a very simple, but effective scheme. It reminds me of a Ben Johnson-lite offense. They follow a few simple rules, attack numbers, throw off play action, and it has lead to minimal mistakes for their offense. They aren't necessarily trying to "out athlete" defenses (Not saying they don't have athletes, the absolutely do) but they stay within their scheme and wait for defenses to make mistakes, particularly in the play action pass.
Utah on defense has been mostly very stingy, but just like the offense, there are a handful of times throughout the game where miscommunications happen, players get off assignment and out of alignment, and offenses make them pay. Utah has been great in the redzone though. It's a bend don't break style, heavy man and blitz defense. It has been yards given up in the middle of the field and complete shut down in the redzone. Utah is currently 5th in opponent red zone scores/game (TR) where ᗺ⅄∩: is 42nd in offensive red zone scores.
ᗺ⅄∩ on defense hasn't generate the same turnovers that they have been used to seeing in recent years. They have also struggle in run defense the past few weeks. However, they mix and match coverages and looks very well. This can cause real problems if Utah falls into some of the indecisiveness we have seen this year. Their linebackers are physical, their corners are great in pass coverage. Utah needs to rely on decisive and deceptive plays of their own to keep things in check.
Where is this game won or lost for Utah?
Offense:
Utah has shown the ability to move the ball and score at will. They have also shown moments of sloppy play, indecisiveness and bad execution. If the offense stays on schedule, I don't see ᗺ⅄∩'s offense keeping up. That can change with turnovers and lax play. Keep it clean and Utah wins
Defense:
As mentioned, the hot cold nature of this defense is a concern. For the most part, Utah has been on the hot side of that thermometer over the last 3 games. It is incredibly important that each position stays on assignment. ᗺ⅄∩ wants to run and throw off play action. Utah's front 4 has been pretty good at stopping the run, ᗺ⅄∩ hasn't been able to generate the ground game they would like as of late. If Utah doesn't consistently need to bring the linebackers up to stop the run, the play action game gets a lot more difficult.
Stay on assignment, limit explosive plays, and hopefully generate a turnover or two.
So what happens?
I would like to believe that Utah is absolutely locked in for every second of this game. Mistakes have improved week over week, but things still aren't perfect. ᗺ⅄∩ is very good at limiting turnovers, their defense hasn't been that way but Utah has been a little turnover prone on both sides of the ball this year. The explosivness let up at times on defense has been a concern all year, it's a concern this weekend as well. ᗺ⅄∩ has not been great at stopping the run as of late, especially with dual threat QB's. Tackling has been a problem for ᗺ⅄∩ whereas Utah's run game has thrived in yards after contact.
If Utah keeps things clean (stay on schedule, stay on assignment, and at least go even in the turnover battle) Utah wins outright, around 38-17. This is rarely a clean cut game though. I expect each team to show up in the best way. This is our year though.
Utah - 34
ᗺ⅄∩ - 24
#GoUtes
There's a new version of this post
i got crushed on here for suggesting Caleb Wilson should be a major consideration at pick 2
his averages
My bold prediction before the sesson was that Rabbit Evans would be the best player on the defense
We there?
i didnt even know this was possible but what buffalo just did on that last drive of regulation was insulting to watch
the anti maction
had we considered that Georgia lost to Auburn when Auburn was a good team and playing well (when they beat number 2 Georgia)
presented without comment
nytimes.com/athletic/7749127…
btw
Per Sagarin (not espn biased ass bullshit)
Miami SOS - 58
Utah SOS - 60
Reece and Co called Miami the obvious number 1
all were disgusted at Utah at 3
and again, they listed COLORADO, as Utahs key win, with Houston
Drake toll said
Utah just cost the holy war GameDay (no mention of byu losing to ucf eliminating a potential top 5 matchup)
Drake said said Utah might have cost the entire big 12 GameDay
This is for Houston
Doubt it bud
.@CollegeGameDay's record-setting season continues
🏈 Last Saturday's show from @UUtah averaged 2.5M viewers
📈 2nd most-viewed Week 8 episode EVER
👀 Final hour drew 3.1M viewers
I get that it's weird because nd lost to byu, but byu losing to ucf is a worse loss
The expectation that every team who lost should be below the team that they lost to is unreasonable,
More importantly, its impossible
Yesterday was fun, back to the important stuff
Utah is 7-0, number 6 in the country
Biggest game of the year is the next one
Nippert, we comin
12-0 in Scalleys first year would be so electric. Its still unlikely (9% fpi) but you win these next 2? 12-0 pulls its chair up to the table next to win the league/make playoffs, win natty
earn the right this wek to play for a perfect season again next week
there are so many teama right now that would kill to have those goals, in Novemeber
were lucky man
and the Houston game very well have given this team the confidence to get through this tough stretch
Our defense dominating a great offense is huge.
the more you watch the video from Utahs ig, the more it feels like the only way you get from point a to point b, is that this was not an organic situation
then there is this post, with 30k likes.....Pat could have gotten into a altercation at gameday and im not sure it gets 30k
