
Iranian-American (هالی دگرس) • @WashInstitute Senior Fellow • 15 years in MENA, Iran raised • TEDx Speaker • Newsletter: https://xitter.cf/t.co/d5DMD1sV55 • فارسی/English
Washington, DC (واشنگتن)
Joined April 2009
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My TEDxTalk on Iranian Gen Z finally dropped... 💫
NOTE: Dissident rapper Toomaj Salehi’s death sentence has been overturned, but he still languishes in prison. youtube.com/watch?v=XtUotLlc…
"Even if he is defeated... Netanyahu could decide to launch one last strike that he may believe his successor would hesitate to execute. Similarly, Trump, who knows how unpopular the war is even among his strongest supporters, may want to show... his authority is undiminished."nytimes.com/2026/10/24/us/po…
Holly Dagres retweeted
“Tehran is attempting to ‘punish’ Trump by driving up oil prices ahead of the midterms, hoping to inflict political damage…Commenting on the issue, an unnamed Arab diplomat said, ‘They’re obsessed. They think they can bring down a presidency.’”
open.substack.com/pub/iranis…
Holly Dagres retweeted
אני מסקר את פעילותו של נתניהו בנושא איראן מאז חזר לשלטון ב-2009 הנה כמה עובדות חשובות:
1. איראן הגיעה בשנים האלה - במשמרת של נתניהו - קרוב יותר מאי פעם לפצצת אטום
2. במלחמת 12 הימים נתניהו וטראמפ גלגלו לאחור את תכנית הגרעין האיראנית באופן משמעותי
3. במלחמת פברואר 2026 נתניהו ניסה להפיל את המשטר האיראני והזניח כמעט לחלוטין את נושא הגרעין
4. חיסול מנהיג איראן חאמינאי בהוראת נתניהו הביא למינוי בנו שמתנער מכל העכבות שהיו לאביו לגבי ייצור פצצת אטום
5. מאז המלחמה האחרונה - במשמרת של נתניהו - איראן צועדת לכיוון שינוי בו היא תשאף ותפעל להשגת לנשק גרעיני באופן מוצהר
6. באיראן יש עדיין 450 קילוגרם של אורניום מועשר לרמה של 60 אחוז שלא טופלו כלל על ידי נתניהו וטראמפ במלחמה האחרונה
תקראו את הדברים החשובים של יובל בלומברג:
מדינת ישראל נמצאת בסכנה קיומית אמיתית ומוחשית. אם האיראנים ישיגו גרעין, שום דבר כבר לא ישנה יותר. הכל כל כך טפל אל מול הסכנה הקיומית של איראן והציר השיעי.
הסערות המבוימות והמומצאות חדשות לבקרים נועדו להסיט את תשומת הלב מהדבר האחד שהוא החשוב ביותר: סיום העבודה באיראן.
זה נוגע בקיום הפיזי של כל אדם ואדם כאן.
יש לנו עוד שנתיים של טראמפ לסיים את העבודה באיראן, ואין לדעת מה יהיה לאחר מכן, אם זו תהיה קמאלה האריס, או תואם מאמדני כלשהו.
זה חלון הזמן שנותר לנו כדי להשלים את העבודה הנדרשת כדי להבטיח את הקיום הפיזי שלנו לשנים הבאות. כל משאבי המדינה הנדרשים, צריכים להיות מושקעים במשימה הזו.
קטאר, חרדים, אוריך, גיוס, התראות.
הכל מסך עשן ענקי כדי להסתיר את הנושא היחיד שניצב מעל כולם בפער.
אם יפלו במרכז הארץ שתי פצצות אטום, את מי יעניינו כל סערות הסרק האלה?
הדורות הבאים לא יסלחו לנו אם נפספס את חלון ההזדמנויות ההיסטורי שמאפשר לנו לנסות ולהשלים את המשימה הקריטית ביותר שעומדת בפני הדור שלנו.
זה לא יקרה עם ראש ממשלה שמוחזק בצווארו על ידי האחים המוסלמים וסייעני הטרור.
זה לא יקרה עם ראש ממשלה שלא מסוגל להרים את הטלפון ולנהל שיחה אינטימית רציפה עם טראמפ.
זה לא יקרה עם ראש ממשלה שלא מסוגל לעמוד בלחץ של ראיון טלויזיה.
השינאה לנתניהו, ככל שהיא עולם ומלואו עבור מחנה שלם, לא תעזור מול הגרעין האיראני.
כל אחד שדואג לקיום הפיזי שלו, של משפחתו, ושל אהוביו, ידו צריכה לרעוד לפני שהוא בוחר במישהו שלא יהיה מסוגל להשלים את המשימה, ובכך לדון את עצמו ואת משפחתו לסכנה של שואה שניה, בגלל השינאה הפוליטית שלו או בגלל סערת דמה מטופשת וחסרת חשיבות.
Holly Dagres retweeted
This is a wild piece of disinfo given all the video and first hand witness accounts we have of Islamic Republic controlled forces gunning protesters down…
🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Up to 40% of the Iranians killed in the crackdown may have died at the hands of foreign agents, using the same playbook the CIA ran in Iran in 1953.
Death toll estimates have swung from 75,000 to 42,000, and Larry Wilkerson puts the real number closer to 10,000 to 12,000, pointing to Mossadegh’s overthrow and Chile under Allende as proof of how these operations work:
“At least 40% of the people who were killed were killed by our agents in Iran trying to do the same thing.”
If any of that holds up, the case for regime change gets a lot harder to sell.
Holly Dagres retweeted
Iran is losing land trade routes to American pressure, as both Iraq and Pakistan shut key border crossings:
"The Pakistani closures have stranded more than 4,500 metric tons of bottled gas—one of Tehran's last energy exports—on the Iranian side of the border."
It has other borders, but they were already struggling to deal with higher volume: last month there were 17,000 trucks waiting to cross, with delays stretching up to three weeks wsj.com/world/middle-east/ir…
Not just Saudi Arabia 😉
The United States is rushing to move diplomats and their family members from posts in the Middle East as intel warns of Iranian plots targeting American personnel. cnn.it/47ya9fH
Holly Dagres retweeted
.@StateDept updated 13 travel advisories throughout the Middle East to "reflect an increase in potential armed attacks by the Iranian-supported Houthis and Iranian efforts to target U.S. government officials in the region."
A State Department Official adds that "The possibility of regional effects [of Houthi attacks], including the potential for flight disruptions, makes a region-wide advisory update important and prudent."
The Official also notes ongoing warnings about Iranian drones and missiles, and says "We have consistently messaged to Americans on the threat from Iran and will continue to do so."
travel.state.gov/en/internat…
Holly Dagres retweeted
US official confirms memo is legit. CNN has obtained a copy. Substance also broadly consistent with IC read on things, per source.
Some question as to why this would be communicated from DNI to SecState via this kind of memo, if not solely with intention of public release.
🚨Scoop: U.S. intelligence finds Iran has "substantially increased" its efforts to target American diplomats & officials in the Middle East and beyond, with lethal plots reaching "advanced stages," per memo to Secretary of State Rubio. My story on @axios
axios.com/2026/10/24/iran-wa…
Holly Dagres retweeted
21-year-old twin sisters Taraneh & Romina Rahimi are suffering the full force of the Iranian regime: Romina sentenced to 25 years, Taraneh to death, after protesting their govt. The cousin who helped raise them tells me of torture behind bars.
“Tehran is attempting to ‘punish’ Trump by driving up oil prices ahead of the midterms, hoping to inflict political damage…Commenting on the issue, an unnamed Arab diplomat said, ‘They’re obsessed. They think they can bring down a presidency.’”
open.substack.com/pub/iranis…
Holly Dagres retweeted
Three UN reports on the human rights situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran have been published in recent weeks.
The the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission’s report concludes that the crackdown by Iranian authorities on the Dec 2025- Jan2026 protests amount to crimes against humanity of murder, imprisonment, torture and other inhumane acts. It also finds reasonable grounds to believe that the US committed the war crime of launching an indiscriminate attack, both in striking a primary school in Minab and in using a wide-dispersal munition over a sports centre and homes in Lamerd. ohchr.org/sites/default/file…
The Secretary-General’s report covers August 2025 to May 2026. It shows how the authorities invoked national security to expand executions amid serious fair-trial concerns, carry out mass arrests and impose internet shutdowns. Sanctions, the hostilities and the shutdown compounded pre-existing socioeconomic hardship and further undermined the enjoyment of socioeconomic rights. Its recommendations include structural change: reform at the legislative and constitutional level and a moratorium on the death penalty. It urged Member States to end the hostilities, to integrate human rights into their diplomatic and economic engagement with Iran. ohchr.org/en/documents/count…
My report is organised around impacts: the killed and executed; the detained and missing; those who defend, document and mobilise; livelihoods; and the environment. In each, the external and internal sources of harm converge. Warnings of incoming strikes were posted to social media that the authorities’ own shutdown had made unreachable, and prisoners were reportedly locked in as the strikes fell. The war did not loosen the repression; it tightened it: protesters were recast as agents of the attacking States, and executions continued throughout. The burden fell hardest on those already at the margins. My recommendations are accordingly addressed to all parties: Iran, the US and Israel, and all States. ohchr.org/en/documents/count…
The common thread is impunity. I know of no investigation by the Iranian authorities into the killings by their forces, and the US and Israel have published no findings on their strikes. When those responsible will not investigate themselves, independent documentation is what stands between the victims and erasure. These reports, built on the work of survivors, families and civil society, are that record, and accountability will one day depend on it.
Until then, the reports converge on what must happen now: end the hostilities through diplomacy, with human rights at the heart of any agreement; halt executions; release those detained for exercising their rights; investigate every death independently; and grant UN mechanisms access.
If you’re looking for something to do this weekend in DC, I highly recommend you see “The Score” at Harman Hall starring Nicole-Ansari Cox and Brian Cox (of “Succession” fame).
The play has political undertones that are even more meaningful when watching in Washington.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: "Iran, an ancient and proud civilization, does not bend its knee to any power."
No matter who rules Iran, this is how its leadership will talk, be it crown, turban, or beret.
More pressure won't force the Iranians to capitulate.
Holly Dagres retweeted
Speaking of preserving the independence of judges, I'll be joining UN experts and legal/policy experts to discuss the lack of independence of the judiciary in Iran & Afghanistan and how this can be weaponized against women and marginalized groups.
Join us this Monday, Oct 26 at 6 pm ET in NYC, registration link here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F…
The Statistical Center of Iran reported that healthcare inflation slightly exceeded general inflation (90 percent), reaching nearly 94 percent in September amid an unprecedented medicine crisis in Iran.
iranwire.com/en/features/159…
Holly Dagres retweeted
So we took a strait that was open and turned it into a strait that requires permanent U.S. military presence to be sort of open at a higher cost. Is this a win?
While nearly everyone else was declaring the Battle of Hormuz lost, we at @FDD were calling this outcome for months.
Never underestimate @CENTCOM, @centcomcdr, or the extraordinary men and women of the U.S. military.





















