Ex-founder. 20+ M&A deals. Public Market Investor
Madrid, Comunidad de Madrid
Joined January 2025
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I鈥檒l ship a bottle of champagne to whoever gets closest to $IREN closing price on the day after earnings. Must be a follower and post in advance!
Place your bets! 馃嵕馃憞
Note for my followers. If/when I sell any $IREN shares I will post it.
Nothing has changed in the business itself. Markets are trying to figure this AI cycle, who wins, who loses, who benefits on a per share basis, etc.
Monitoring execution, not as a blind bull but understanding the complexity of ramping a business this big, this new.
Not all mistakes are fatal, not all wins are real.
馃憡
. @BillAckman got this one right too 馃憦
"We estimate that one gigawatt of AI data center capacity currently costs approximately $40 billion to $50 billion to build using the latest generation of chips. We believe a hyperscaler can generate $15 billion to $20 billion in annual revenue per gigawatt of compute capacity, which, at a 50% incremental operating margin, would generate $7.5 billion to $10 billion of incremental operating income, implying a pre-tax return on invested capital of 15% to 25%."
. @BillAckman "Consensus Estimates for the Hyperscalers Embed the Cost of the Buildout but Discount Its Upside"
This applies to a big chunk of the market.
"Consensus analyst estimates for the hyperscalers reflect a notable disconnect: they expect the current level of capital intensity to persist for years into the future, yet they assume minimal acceleration in revenue growth beyond this year and next. Consensus estimates treat the capex buildout as a structural increase in maintenance capital intensity rather than as an investment capable of producing outsized future revenue growth and attractive returns on capital."
For the degens I've placed last week a very tiny bear put spread on $AAPL earnings. Up 50% already but holding into tomorrow's open.
On the AI buildout: the question the market is asking isn鈥檛 demand.
Demand is real, compute is sold out and prices are still climbing.
The question is how you finance one of the most expensive buildouts in history when the payer at the top of the chain is still burning cash.
The fear came faster and harder than anyone expected. I think the answer will come faster than the market thinks too.
Debt is shaky. Dilution is shaky. Vendor financing is creeping back in.
From first economic principles, this resolves the way every capital bottleneck does:
The price of compute goes up
Only some of the compute gets built
Margins upstream compress (NVDA has the most to give)
Risk moves up the chain to the strongest balance sheets. Customers prepay more. The weakest neoclouds consolidate or die.
Whoever owns the scarce asset that doesn鈥檛 depreciate, and can afford to wait, wins.
So the real question isn鈥檛 whether AI gets built. It鈥檚 who pays the cost of capital to build it, and who owns it when the dust settles.
What do you think?
Important: When price action becomes so obviously disconnected from the reality of a business, that鈥檚 when great companies and CEOs get to work.
No more interviews. Nobody wants to hear you talk. No explanations will make sense in an irrational market.
The only thing left? Put your head down. Work hard. Deliver for your customers. Lead your teams. Execute.
Let the results do the talking.
$IREN is doing exactly that.
I always thought a 3x to the downside was probably around the bottom for $IREN on an AI market pullback.
$76 / 3 = $25.3
I guess I was wrong.
This sucks but now $IREN puts up 60%. Totally reckless selling and there's nothing I can do about it.
If IREN is worth $9B only then NVDA should be $2T at most. Why? Do the math...
If this is your fear, rest assured we'll figure it out.
Advertising is not going away anytime soon, if needed AI models will be ad-pilled to make it happen.
Reddit's earnings call has exposed the new reality for thousands of companies.
"AI mode does not drive traffic. Not for us and not to anybody as far as I know. It used to be a traffic driver. Now it's not." - Reddit CEO.
The reality is that AI is fundamentally changing the way that humans access the internet.
Just 24 hours prior to this statement, Google's stock erased -$480 billion on the same issue: AI is disrupting the traditional search model.
For decades, the internet operated on a simple model. Search engines directed users to websites, and those websites monetized the traffic.
AI is destroying this business model, and it's happening at an accelerating pace.
The traditional model of internet traffic is rapidly becoming outdated.
The internet has entered a new era.
During 2022, I was pitching my own company to big PE firms.
We were close to a sale, but did not make it.
Market sentiment was off, plus execution on our side was not 100%.
It took 3 more years to make it happen, but it happened.
We got roughly the same price I had in mind in 2022.
Lesson? Execute, deliver, and you'll eventually make it.
Would love to know what鈥檚 being said in the bank meetings on $ANT right now.
My guess: they鈥檒l raise what they need anyway, at a valuation of $1.5T or less.
Better to raise and keep building than wait and try to time the market鈥檚 appetite.
I come from the future. Unfortunately, $IREN sees sub $20 before $40+.
I can鈥檛 tell you when.
Triple digits eventually, for strong holders only.
This message will auto destruct in 3 ... 2 ... 1
Have a great Friday!
The real answer is nobody knows shit, market participants are just plain scared.
That's the reason.
10Y, CAPEX, debt, dilution, AI useless are ALL excuses, you name it.
I've been in many rooms with people managing private and public money a couple orders of magnitude above me in London/NYC. I won't post their names.
And at the end of the day, most of them are faking it/following.
Do your homework, soldier on, and be strong.
Watching day to day price action during the biggest technological boom in history feels insane. Because it is.
As long as I鈥檝e got the trend right, stay patient, don鈥檛 FOMO into crazy valuations, and give it years to play out, I鈥檒l be fine.
Yes, there will be delays, disruptions, and mistakes.
That鈥檚 why it鈥檚 called growth investing.
Heading to my indoor training now @GoZwift