“The UK cannot afford to be left out of Made in Europe, and its EV mandate needs a reality check.” @dgbailey’s blog today on BlogsFromTheBlackstuff blogsfromtheblackstuff.com/b…

My comments included in national coverage of Glasgow Council Pension Fund's just-declared, record £12Bn *funding* surplus. It's amassed almost 60% more than it will need to pay out for pensions. The Canary in the mine: UK-wide surplus is £200B of taxpayers' money if repeated across LGPS, as @dgbailey & I warned 18ms ago. thisismoney.co.uk/money/mark…

The problem is that the whole LGPS scheme’s long-term investment returns are demonstrably above 7% over 25, 30 and 35 years. That includes two massive crashes and many lean year periods. But the scheme managers have, overall, assumed future returns would and will be 5.4% or less when liabilities were calculated in each of the last 15 years’ valuations. Hence taxpayer contributions were unnecessarily hiked execessively, or nor reduced substantially enough. That’s why there are mega-surpluses all over the place which won’t go away without several years of 0% contributions. Or for direct intervention by government to return directly to taxpayer. Glasgow cut taxpayer contributions to just 6%, but they’ve still ended up with a £12B 60% surplus!!

National Coverage of Local Government Pension Scheme this morning, with my comments on Glasgow's just-declared record £12Bn *funding* surplus. 156% funded, even over-prudently assuming 5% future investment returns. Excellent, detailed coverage from @PatrickTooher. thisismoney.co.uk/money/mark… Ridiculous, nonsensical non-denial denial from HM Treasury. What on Earth are they trying to hide from their own chancellor and PM? The fact that they should have spotted the taxpayer-owned likely now £200 billion LGPS surplus before now? Glasgow is the canary in the mine, telling us how big this scandal is going to get. The whole UK scheme had £517B in assets last March. If Glasgow's 158% funding was matched across the scheme, its total pensions bill would be £327B, and so a surplus of £190B of taxpayers' money. That was last March, it's obviously likely now to be over £200B. and Glasgow's share of that likely £20 billion. The biggest yearly loss Glasgow PF has suffered in the last two crashes in 2009 and 2003 was -20%, followed by immediate recovery the following year. The surplus isn't going away, HMT. In Glasgow or across the UK. The piece also points out what we've been saying for some time: the average annual payout from these pensions is little more than £5,000 a year: gold-plated, they aren't.

The Cat is Back: Reflections on the new Jaguar Type 01 @dgbailey's blog today. His verdict on the Jag Type 1 EV, and, more importantly, what it represents for the auto business and JLR. blogsfromtheblackstuff.com/b…

Relax the ZEV Mandate. And Fix the EV Transition Properly. @dgbailey's blog today: blogsfromtheblackstuff.com/b… "@RichParkerLab @MayorWestMids is right. "..EVs accounted for only 26.2% of registrations across the first nine months of 2026, compared with a 33% mandate target. That gap tells us something pretty important. "The ZEV mandate should therefore be relaxed, to 50% by 2030, with a more gradual glide path to 2035."

Britain’s automotive supply chain doesn’t need to die. It needs a new mission. @dgbailey's new blog: blogsfromtheblackstuff.com/b… "Capabilities embedded in the automotive supply chain have not suddenly become worthless. They are capabilities in advanced manufacturing, precision engineering, electronics, software, materials, batteries, autonomous systems and complex supply-chain management" "This is what we mean by reverse conversion: the deliberate mobilisation and reorientation of established civilian industrial capabilities towards defence and dual-use production." "Defence itself is changing. Modern military capability increasingly depends upon technologies and production systems that have strong civilian applications: electronics, communications, autonomous systems, drones, advanced materials, batteries, power electronics, software and sophisticated manufacturing."

Britain’s automotive supply chain doesn’t need to die. It needs a new mission. @dgbailey's new blog today: blogsfromtheblackstuff.com/b… "Capabilities embedded in the automotive supply chain have not suddenly become worthless. They are capabilities in advanced manufacturing, precision engineering, electronics, software, materials, batteries, autonomous systems and complex supply-chain management" "This is what we mean by reverse conversion: the deliberate mobilisation and reorientation of established civilian industrial capabilities towards defence and dual-use production." "Defence itself is changing. Modern military capability increasingly depends upon technologies and production systems that have strong civilian applications: electronics, communications, autonomous systems, drones, advanced materials, batteries, power electronics, software and sophisticated manufacturing."

@dgbailey and my blog last November alerting then UK govt to the fiscal opportunity blogsfromtheblackstuff.com/b…

National coverage of LGPS surplus this morning, including my comments on how £10B a year can be found by government - by use of this taxpayer-owned surplus - for huge fiscal headroom, as @dgbailey &I pointed out as far back as Nov 2025. thisismoney.co.uk/money/mark… Standardising the national scheme’s assumptions &calculations at UK level will show 100s of £billions are deliberately hidden in plain sight, mainly for the hidden benefit of investment bankers. OBR, NAO and HMT need to ensure this is on the books, for budgetary purposes. It rests unnecessary limbo.

The Death of British Manufacturing? HOW LONG BEFORE WE RUN OUT OF FACTORIES? midlandsgrit.co.uk/p/the-dea… @dgbailey’s prognosis on ‘re-industrialisation’ and UK Car manufacturing. As ever, Olley distills it with aplomb. Burnham needs Bailey.

JLR Job Cuts: Britain’s Car Industry Is Running on Empty @dgbailey’s blog today blogsfromtheblackstuff.com/b… ‘The govt. should treat the current situation as a strategic industrial emergency. Get industrial energy costs down. ‘Give manufacturers a more realistic and flexible route through the EV transition. Provide long-term certainty for investment. And substantially increase the incentives for companies to invest in UK production, batteries and supply chains.’ ‘…a warning that Britain’s automotive industry is being hit by a near perfect storm. The consequences could extend far beyond JLR.’