Kees van der Burgt retweeted
It's a bird... It's a plane... NO, it's CCC junk bonds hitting 18.17%! 😱
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
🚨 THE FIRST AI BUBBLE HAS BURST.
China's STAR50 index, which tracks the country's biggest AI and chip companies, has crashed 40% in less than four months.
That has wiped out about $480 billion in market value.
The damage has spread across the whole market.
China's main CSI 300 index is now in a bear market, down 20% from its June high, and Chinese stocks have lost $3.5 trillion in total value since their May peak.
China's two listed AI model companies, MiniMax and Zhipu, have lost a combined $150 billion from their highs.
Robot maker Unitree crashed 50% since its August listing, and optical parts makers Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink are down about 60%.
The warning signs were already there.
At the peak, the STAR50 traded at almost 250 times earnings.
AI stocks made up 42% of China's entire stock market and 57% of all trading, mostly driven by retail investors.
Now look at the US.
AI-linked stocks make up 49% of the S&P 500's value, according to JPMorgan.
That's even higher than China's 42% before its crash.
The S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio is above 40, the second highest in over 150 years.
The only time it was higher was right before the dot-com crash.
Margin debt, the money investors borrow to buy stocks, has hit a record $1.5 trillion.
And Anthropic just filed for an IPO that could value it at $2 trillion, after losing $80.7 billion in the first half of this year.
The US is now flashing the same warning signs China did before its AI stocks crashed.
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
BREAKING:
🇧🇷 Brazil's 10Y bond yield hits 16%, its highest level in 11 years.
A 18% stock market crash, a 10% currency dump, and now a bond yield surge; Brazil is having a pretty rough day today.
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
🚨 BREAKING: ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH!!
🇨🇳 OVER ¥750,000,000,000.00 HAS BEEN WIPED OUT OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET IN JUST 5 MINUTES!
BANK OF CHINA IS NOW URGENTLY LIQUIDATING ALL U.S. TREASURIES AFTER CHINESE AI STOCKS DUMPED BY OVER 40%.
THIS IS TERRIBLE NEWS FOR GLOBAL MARKETS…
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
BREAKING: 🇧🇷 The ETF tracking Brazil's stock market has crashed almost 20% in pre market after Lula won the presidential election
Petrobras is down 12% and Itaú is down 14% in pre market.
If Brazil's market opens with a similar drop, more than R$1.1 trillion will be wiped out from its market cap today.
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING TERRIBLE IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN
We've seen this before.
All the major S&P 500 cycles end the same way:
2020:
New all-time highs → Then a -36% crash
2022:
New all-time highs → Then a -28% crash
2024:
New all-time highs → Then a -21% crash
2026:
New all-time highs → The correction has already begun
The crowd is waiting for a confirmation signal.
It always does.
But connect the dots:
- The S&P has already fallen from 7,850 to 7,620.
- Oil is above $110.
- Just 10 stocks still hold up 40% of the index.
- 84% of stocks are already in a drawdown.
By the time everyone agrees it is a crash, the first wave is already gone.
Then the excuses start:
"It is just a healthy correction."
That is how every major crash begins.
Not with panic.
With denial.
Remember, I've called every major turn for 10 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000.
When the real flush confirms, I’ll post the level worth buying here like I always do.
Turn notifications on.
If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
The following stocks may rise
$ADTX $LUCD $DEVS
I'm starting with $2K and aiming for $500K in 3 months. I'll share real-time stock analysis and why I make each trade on WhatsApp. Wanna follow along?
Message my assistant to join the group: stocksi.live/vWbvIL
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
🚨 BREAKING
🇺🇸 TRUMP INSIDER WITH 100% WIN RATE JUST OPENED A MASSIVE $180,000,000.00 SHORT AHEAD OF THE U.S. FUTURES MARKET OPEN!
THIS HAS PREDICTED EVERY MARKET DUMP SO FAR AND WENT ALL-IN ONCE AGAIN.
HE DEFINITELY KNOWS THE MARKET WILL CRASH HARD NEXT WEEK...
🚨 WARNING: THE FINAL BULL TRAP IS OFFICIALLY OVER
Three days ago, I warned you that Bitcoin would dump below $80K again.
Today, everything is playing out EXACTLY as I predicted.
The plan is simple:
$80K → $76K → $73K → $70K → $67K
Save this chart and come back in a few weeks.
Remember:
I publicly called Bitcoin’s $16K bottom in 2022.
Then I called the $126K top in 2025 and the $58K bottom in 2026.
As always, my next call will be posted here first.
Follow and turn on notifications.
Don’t become exit liquidity.
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
🇺🇸 Something BIG is happening in the US bond market, and it suggests investors are getting seriously nervous.
America's 30-year Treasury yield has plunged from around 5.7% to 5.315% in less than three weeks.
On October 22 alone, yields COLLAPSED by roughly 15 basis points, one of the sharpest daily moves in months.
And the timing is important.
Stocks are falling. Oil is trading above $100. France's financial troubles are rattling European markets.
Instead of chasing returns, investors are rushing into U.S. government bonds, pushing their prices higher and yields lower.
But here's the contradiction.
INFLATION is still a problem. America's debt keeps growing. And borrowing costs remain painfully high.
Yet investors are suddenly willing to lend Washington money for 30 years at significantly lower yields than just weeks ago.
That doesn't necessarily mean confidence in the American economy is returning.
It may mean investors are becoming MORE AFRAID of everything else.
Writer: Oliver
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
Vijf bewindslieden sluiten zich op zaterdag op een geheime locatie op om een gat van 500 miljoen euro in het Belastingplan te dichten. Waar ze zitten, mag jij niet weten. Na afloop wordt niets bekendgemaakt.
Snijden in 160.000 rijksambtenaren staat niet op tafel. Een Kamermeerderheid kijkt wel naar de erf- en schenkbelasting.
Jouw erfenis als wisselgeld.
dagelijksestandaard.nl/polit…
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 OpenAI slashes its valuation target for its latest funding round by $150B from $1.4 Trillion to $1.25 Trillion due to weaker investor demand, per FT.
🚨 $SPX IS COOKING SOMETHING MASSIVE
2 years inside a Rising Wedge on the weekly
Higher highs, weaker legs, momentum fading on every push
Rising wedge = trend running out of fuel. The bigger the wedge, the harder the unwind
Price: 7,640, still coiled under the upper line
The roadmap:
- Dip to the lower trendline, longs get flushed
- Bounce + one last fakeout higher
- Blow-off to $8,200, peak greed
- Wedge breaks
- First stop: 6,300
- Fake recovery to sell into
- Final leg: 4,800 by early 2028
Mega-caps carry the index while breadth rots
Same setup as 2000 and 2007: euphoria at highs, thin participation, everyone sure “this time is different”
When $8,200 prints, the timeline will scream 10k
That’s your exit, not your entry
Smart money sells strength. Protect profits. Don’t marry the top
🚨 S&P 500 IS LOADING A MASSIVE DUMP
$SPX is sitting near all-time highs
But the 200 EMA is still FAR below, around 5,970
Price is ~7,657. That's almost 22% away from the 200 EMA
Markets tend to close gaps like that
And almost nobody is paying attention to what happens next
SAME SETUP. EVERY TIME
2022 → -27.51%
2025 → -21.93%
2026 → -18.06% NEXT?
New high. Then a flush back to the 200 EMA. The market keeps getting pulled to long-term support
Add seasonality: in US midterm years, the S&P 500's max drawdown has averaged about 16% since 1950
Millions of investors are long at the highs. Totally unprepared for a correction
I've been trading for 15+ years, and I'm not ignoring this setup
When I decide to EXIT the market completely, I'll post it here publicly
Save this chart
Follow and turn notifications on
My next major market call will be posted here FIRST
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
OMSK IS BURNING! 🔥
Ukraine has just hit the Omsk oil refinery...Russia’s largest fuel production facility, located 2500 km. away from Ukraine’s borders. This is HUGE.
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
🚨 TWO MAJOR RESEARCH FIRMS ARE WARNING ABOUT A POTENTIAL MULTI TRILLION DOLLAR AI DISASTER.
TS Lombard and Gartner have released some shocking estimates about what could happen if the AI spending boom collapses.
According to TS Lombard's Dario Perkins, a sharp collapse in AI spending could trigger:
• S&P 500 crashing 30%.
• Tech stocks plunging 40%.
• $125–190 BILLION in credit losses.
• Around 800,000 jobs lost.
• More than $20 TRILLION in stock market value wiped out.
And now Gartner has issued an even more disturbing warning about the money being poured into AI infrastructure.
According to Gartner:
• AI companies are expected to spend nearly $1 TRILLION on infrastructure in 2026 alone.
• Another $6 TRILLION could be spent between 2027 and 2030.
• AI data center owners would need to generate $8.5 TRILLION in revenue through 2030 to cover spending, financing costs and earn a 12% return.
• But Gartner expects no more than $3.6 TRILLION in AI revenue attributable to data centers during that period.
That's a nearly $5 TRILLION gap between the revenue needed to justify the investments and the revenue Gartner expects.
And the situation gets even worse.
Gartner warns that more than $3.5 TRILLION in AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by 2030.
By 2032, more than $4 TRILLION in asset value could be at risk of write-downs.
It also predicts that over 80% of neocloud providers could cease operating independently by 2030.
The biggest problem is that these companies are spending enormous amounts of money on GPUs and data centers that could become outdated before they generate enough revenue to recover their costs.
And the stock market is heavily exposed.
The Magnificent 7 alone account for roughly 35% of the S&P 500's market value.
All seven have significant exposure to AI through their businesses, investments or infrastructure spending.
If AI companies start cutting spending, chipmakers, cloud providers and data center operators could all take a massive hit.
With AI-related debt potentially reaching $2.9 TRILLION by 2027, the damage could spread to banks and other lenders as well.
This is no longer just about whether AI companies are overvalued.
The bigger risk is that trillions of dollars are being invested in infrastructure that may never generate enough profit to justify its cost.
And if the AI spending boom suddenly reverses, the damage could spread far beyond technology stocks.
A $20 trillion market crash is a scenario, not a certainty, but the amount of money at risk is becoming impossible to ignore.
🚨 WARNING: A BIG STORM IS COMING
Record stock prices.
AI mania.
Tightening liquidity.
Rising inflation.
Collapsing bond markets.
We’ve seen this EXACT bubble 3 times before.
Different century. Different technology. Same warning signs.
The most dangerous crashes begin when nobody believes they’re possible.
Keep in mind:
I’ve spent 10+ years studying markets and calling major tops and bottoms.
My next call will be posted here first.
Follow and turn on notifications before it’s too late.
Don’t become exit liquidity.
































