Big Short investor Steve Eisman says the AI labs know they have no moats and are manufacturing a crisis to get regulation that hands them a duopoly "I think this is all nonsense." [ You think it's all nonsense? ] "All nonsense. I think that there's something else completely going on here. ... What I think is happening is that token maxing is over. The open weight models are taking big market share. I think these companies are very nervous. They realize that there are no moats around their business whatsoever, and they're trying to manufacture a crisis that will create regulation, and that they think they can then manipulate to create the moats, to create the duopoly that they want." [ Wow. ] "That's what I think is going on." "Honestly, I think this whole Terminator thing is garbage. That's for sure."

网景创始人 、硅谷顶级投资人Marc Andreessen 在访谈里坦言，他看到了科技史上最可怕的一道认知鸿沟， 传统巨头以为 AI 只是个降本增效的插件，而新一代 AI 原生团队，正在用完全非人的组织效率掀翻整个商业版图。 当年写出网景浏览器、见证了整个互联网三十年兴衰的 Marc Andreessen，坐在 Ben Horowitz 面前直接发出了感慨， 如果 1994 年我们做 Netscape 的时候就有今天这种 AI 工具，那简直不可想象。 现在绝大多数传统巨头和现有企业，依然在用改良软件的旧思维去看待大模型。 在他们的组织逻辑里，AI 只是一个高级功能，用来给现有业务做个插件、在钉钉里加个智能助手、或者把客服团队砍掉 20% 省点成本。 他们以为自己在拥抱变革，其实只是在给老旧的蒸汽机打补丁。 但真正恐怖的事情，正在那些刚成立的 AI 原生团队里发生。 那些创始人对 AI 能力的理解，跟大厂完全不在同一个平行宇宙。 他们每周都在看着底层技术飞速进化，而且他们压根不会把自己定义成一家软件公司、硬件公司、甚至是一家 AI 公司。 以前创办一家公司，你的组织架构是按人类的协同瓶颈搭出来的： 招产品经理写文档、招工程师写代码、招法务改合同、招运营做投放。 因为人类的脑力带宽有限，所以必须靠庞大的部门和管理层级来支撑业务。 而真正的 AI 原生物种，是用机器智能作为最底层的骨架。 两个人加上一整套自动化 Agent，可以直接把从市场洞察、软件工程、全栈设计到商业销售的链路全部跑通。 他们不是在效率上快了 30%，他们是在组织形态上彻底跨越了一个物种。 大厂的盲区，从来不是买不起算力，而是他们无法理解组织本身才是最大的负债。 当现有企业还在开会讨论如何把 AI 塞进现有的业务流程时，新一代的野蛮人正在用完全超越行业界限的方式，把传统的业务流程连根拔起。 未来拉开人与人、公司与公司之间差距的，根本不是你用了哪个模型，而是你到底是在用新工具维持旧世界的体面，还是用新世界的底层逻辑，重新定义了自己能做的事情。

This is such a lucid take on the benchmark creation process. Evals need to live inside and outside the loop to get the best results.

Crows are being given naloxone after suspected drug overdoses. What is happening in BC?

Last year the same labs, politicians, NGOs, and media outlets now pushing the extinction hoax were running a full-scale campaign that AI would cause a jobs apocalypse. We were told it would be a “white-collar bloodbath,” 10–20% unemployment, half of entry-level jobs gone. Obama amplified it. Over a year later: unemployment at 4.1%. No economy-wide displacement. A million new jobs created by AI, says The Economist. Anthropic’s own chief economist says the data looks like skill augmentation, not job destruction. So, any admission by the doomer labs, politicians, and NGOs that they were wrong? Any humility about scaring the public with wild extrapolations dressed up as forecasts? Nope. They just move on to the next hoax, with the same false certitude and fake precision.

THE ONLY REASON Antropic and OpenAI exists is because of the work of this man. What a breath of fresh air. Listen to @JensenHuang leave these hosts speechless as he deconstructed AI fear theater calmly and cogently.