Lukas retweeted
AIs cracking short-term superforecasting is such an important (and, still, under-discussed) trend.
Via a new piece from @nikostro economist.com/science-and-teâŠ
Lukas retweeted
Militia Capital is hiring a quantitative engineer in Austin.
AI is probably going to eat discretionary investing in the next 10 years.
We want to create AI tools and trading systems that distill and improve the judgment of our portfolio managers. We're not a HFT/MFT shop and don't expect to compete there; we're trying something different, which is to automate and trade on superior qualitative forecasts over weeks, months and maybe years.
We're looking for exceptional statistics/ML, problem-solving and engineering ability. Finance experience is optional. Exceptional graduates and candidates from other technical fields are welcome.
Pay: $275K base, $300K-$500K target bonus, depending mostly on your contribution to profits.
Email [email protected] with your resume and a short description of your hardest technical project (research, open-source work, etc.), ideally with a link to it.
I can't reply to everyone, and I apologize for that.
Lukas retweeted
This is just the age old PM vs. Analyst debate. Part of the PM toolkit should be knowing how to navigate this exact dynamic well.
Lukas retweeted
Om Änger, demonen som kallas hindsight bias och vad som egentligen betyder nÄgonting.
aktiesparfonden.se/en-inlagaâŠ
Lukas retweeted
Using agents 24/7, it feels so obvious why certain SaaS (observability, ticketing, CI, cloud) are benefitting massively from AI
Must be scary to being software investor whoâs never used agents or these products
Huge Atlassian quarterly beat. There was a misplaced thesis over the past 6 months that somehow agents would be bad for certain software categories. Thereâs definitely truth in this in some areas, but many were parsing this poorly.
In a world where agents are generating 100X more code, processing massive amounts of data, or making decisions across your systems, the role of the platforms that manage this data and these workflows becomes more important, not less.
Enterprises care about governance, security, compliance, guardrails, safe access to data, and many more critical capabilities that go into these systems of record.
Lukas retweeted
If you hold a levered portfolio of ~7 stocks for a long time, chances are that you will look like a genius or like an idiot, whichever comes first. Kelly, Information Coefficient, etc. are not useless concepts.
Many such cases these days.
Lukas retweeted
Pratar lite Argo Defence och spekulerar kring vad som hĂ€nder med Evolution i bl.a. Sydkorea. Men Ă€ven lite sportsbetting historik och hur Kambi et al. âstĂ€nger avâ vinnande spelare
Sommarserien tuggar vidare och denna vecka har vi med oss Marlon @MrEVplus pÄ Exelity som i 20 Är skapat överavkastning.
shows.acast.com/marketmakersâŠ
Retweeta gÀrna!
Lukas retweeted
One of the most persistent misconceptions I see about the industry is that systematic = quant = stat arb = HFT. Jane Street has never been an HFT in the sense of Virtu or Tower, and at this point they even have fundamental long/short equity (but traded systematically).
Lukas retweeted
Det Àr faktiskt rÀtt anmÀrkningsvÀrt att kalla helt vanlig due diligence för "inte se skogen för alla trÀd". Finns ingen avancerad matematik bakom det utan rÀtt enkla principer och framförallt en förmÄga att se saker nyktert och utan ekonomisk vinning.
Begrunda trÄden nedan som föranledde min trÄd om marginalerna i $SNX.
Det var "vĂ€ldigt uppenbart" för Herr Ădmjuk att marginalerna skulle ligga pĂ„ 8.5% under 2026 och sen leta sig upp till 11%. Men han lyckades inte ens pricka marginalen pĂ„ 7% till 2 mĂ„nader senare som landade pĂ„ 6.5% pĂ„ rullande.
Jag förklarade att det fanns flera drivkrafter varför marginalerna skulle komma lÀgre (ökad mix mot nötter/Coop-affÀren som Àr lÄgmarginal, sÀmre skalfördelar pÄ de *relevanta* delarna Àn vad mÄnga prisar in och vad VDn sjÀlv sÀger (!). Samt varför folks extrapoleringar byggt pÄ fel premisser (bruttomarginaler som varit FX-dopade).
IstÀllet började bolaget klaga pÄ dÄliga jÀmförelsekvartal, dÄlig potatisskörd, frakt i enstaka fall, negativ pÄverkan frÄn att man gjorde utförsÀljningar, ICA-avtal som inte gick igenom, Willys. Flera kvartal i rad. Det finns alltid tusen bortförklaringar och man har sett det förut.
Vad byggde han sin servett pÄ? Vad VDn erinrat i tidigare samtal. Gjorde han nÄgon egen analys? Troligen inte. Svarade han nÄgot vettigt nÀr jag frÄgade om utveckling? Nej istÀllet nedlÄtande att man ska sÀtta upp saker i Excel.
Om detta kallas för avancerad matematik eller att inte se skogen för trÀden sÄ vet jag inte vad jag ska sÀga, för tyvÀrr blev det exakt som jag började pÄpeka i November i detta fallet.
Lukas retweeted
I would say that the dominant approach in multi-managers now is âquantamentalâ especially in equities (not so much in fixed income or macro). Center books, alpha capture (external and internal), factor and sector hedging overlays, replication. Far from having failed, it became so ubiquitous that we donât notice it any more.
I think people thought that âquantamentalâ would mean fundamental managers using lots of quant inputs but in fact it turned out to be much more profitable for fundamental managers to be inputs into a quant investing process.
Lukas retweeted
Alex Gerko has built XTX Markets into one of the fastest growing, most profitable firms in the secretive business of algorithmic trading via a prescient bet of AI-powered quant strategies wsj.com/finance/alex-gerko-xâŠ
Lukas retweeted
Enea. ĂNTLIGEN som den gode Fylking skulle ropat. Enea MOSAR förvĂ€ntningarna med 12% organisk tillvĂ€xt, den högsta pĂ„ mĂ„nga Ă„r. ABG rĂ€knade med 1%. Med starka bruttomarginaler pĂ„ 77% och tight cost-control ökar EBITDA med 42% till 75 mkr mot ABGs est pĂ„ 53 mkr.
Aktien pÄ PE 10x
Lukas retweeted
WTI is not trading at a premium to Brent. It's an artifact of futures roll dates. The front month Brent contract rolls earlier than front month WTI, so Brent front month is currently for *June* delivery whereas WTI front month is for *May* delivery.
The rolls are about three weeks out of sync - around 15th Apr the pattern will look "normal" again as WTI rolls to June, and then on 23rd Apr it will look "wrong" again as Brent rolls to July.
This creates a sawtooth offset to the true Brent/WTI premium. You can see it clearly in this chart of prices from 2005-06 where the blue line is the difference of the active contract, and the red line is corrected by interpolating to a constant 30 calendar day maturity.
