
Head of Product, co-founder @VoteHub
Long Beach, CA
Joined June 2020
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Luke Wines retweeted
Replying to @hecubian_devil
Your ballot is secure and counted offline.
Election-reporting websites use different systems, some potentially vulnerable, but an attack would disrupt reporting and create confusion/conspiracy, not change actual votes.
I would like to propose a pause on all new software vulnerabilities until Nov 4. Some of us here have maps to make!
Luke Wines retweeted
Partisanship Score of Texas Early Voters (Days 1-2)
🔵 Voted in 2024: D+5.6
🔵 Didn't Vote in 2024: D+19.4
Perhaps most concerning for Paxton (and Abbott), low propensity voters turning out so far have very, very Democratic profiles.
Texas Early Vote Tracking: Day 2
As of Oct. 21, 2026
Total votes: 1,445,278 (+651,367)
14.9% of projected final turnout.
Modeled 2026 Vote:
🔵 James Talarico: 47.2% - 56.6%
🔴 Ken Paxton: 41.2% - 50.6%
Our Modeled 2026 vote ranges were unchanged from Day 1 to Day 2. VoteHub currently rates the race as Tilt D.
Luke Wines retweeted
When Wedgewood first appeared, I reached out to their head pollster to try to learn more about them. We spoke on the phone for about 15 minutes. He told me he was a college student at Boston University who had previously worked with SoCal Strategies and had paid for some inexpensive polls out of pocket. He also mentioned that the other member of the team was involved in local Democratic politics in Ohio.
They struck me as nice kids with at least some understanding of polling, but obviously no professional experience. With that in mind, we assigned them a D grade and included their polling data on our site.
A few years ago, I was a college student following politics as a hobby myself, so I try to give people in that position the benefit of the doubt. It's disappointing to see how this has unfolded, because it's going to be a hell of a lot harder for the next college kid who's actually well-intentioned and super into politics to break into the space after this.
Luke Wines retweeted
We analyzed over 1 billion trades to find out why Kalshi markets are so accurate. A group of 15,000 superforecasters is largely responsible.
What stands out:
-There are 14,694 people on Kalshi who have significantly better predictive ability than other traders. This is measured by Brier skill score, which tracks trader calibration.
-They provide their forecasts to the whole platform, not just the top few markets. Skilled traders are active in 97.3% of markets.
-Timing and category change behavior: for example, superforecasters enter economic markets earlier, and sports markets later.
-These traders aren’t concentrated in the coasts or major cities. They come from all around the country, with Wyoming having the most per capita.
Prediction markets provide an incentive for smart people to do research, think rationally, and share their views with the world.
This incentive has brought almost 15,000 superforecasters to Kalshi, who create a public good by providing accurate forecasts to nearly every market on the platform.
Luke Wines retweeted
James Talarico has raised $128.8M to Ken Paxton's $19.5M in the Texas Senate race, with 43% of Talarico's itemized donations coming from Texas compared with 76% of Paxton's.
NEW from VoteHub: Endorsements in Republican primaries were linked more closely to vote share than in Democratic ones this year, but the evidence is mixed on a Democratic Tea Party.
@JackEichholz breaks down primary endorsements in 2026 and what it says about the 2028 election.
Our Legacy forecast gives Democrats a 27% chance of a “mega tsunami,” winning 240+ House and 54+ Senate seats, compared to just 18% on Kalshi. Traders, meanwhile, are more confident in Democrats achieving at least modest gains.
Legacy 🟣 vs. Kalshi 🟢
Trickle: 🟣 84% vs. 🟢 95%
Wave: 🟣 77% vs. 🟢 81%
Tsunami: 🟣 48% vs. 🟢 48%
Mega tsunami: 🟣 27% vs. 🟢 18%
Ken Paxton has a 36.9% chance of winning the Texas U.S. Senate race in our forecast.
Roughly the same odds as a white Christmas in Denver.
Dan Osborn has a 25.1% chance of winning Nebraska in our forecast.
Roughly the same odds as your JetBlue flight arriving more than 15 minutes late!
Adam Hamilton now has a 31.6% chance of winning Kansas in our forecast.
Roughly the same odds as a DoorDash order arriving late. Make of that what you will!
A bipartisan effort is underway in Congress to prevent a potential constitutional crisis following the midterm elections.
Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Don Bacon (R-NE) are urging lawmakers to pledge not to block the seating of duly elected House members, per @washingtonpost.
VoteHub's Senate forecast was extremely stable throughout the summer, but favorable conditions for Democrats in the fall have moved the odds in their favor.
We currently expect Democrats to win 52 Senate seats, with a 60% chance of flipping the chamber.
Luke Wines retweeted
Just 18 months ago, Trump was making major gains with Gen Z, and generic ballot polling favored Republicans. Since then, young voters have swung sharply away from Trump.
I joined Nikole Killion on The Takeout today to discuss why and what it means for Gen Z's political future.
A sharp age divide is emerging within Gen Z in the latest @YalePolling data:
🔴 Ages 18–21: R+12
🔵 Ages 22–29: D+6
The youngest voters are breaking sharply from their older Gen Z peers.





















