Mark Beveridge (@marks_thinking) header
Mark Beveridge (@marks_thinking) profile picture

Always thinking about Financial Markets, Self Managed Super and Personal Investments

Brisbane, Queensland
Joined November 2012
Photo by Mark Beveridge (@marks_thinking)Photo by Mark Beveridge (@marks_thinking)Photo by Mark Beveridge (@marks_thinking)Photo by Mark Beveridge (@marks_thinking)Photo by Mark Beveridge (@marks_thinking)Photo by Mark Beveridge (@marks_thinking)Photo by Mark Beveridge (@marks_thinking)Photo by Mark Beveridge (@marks_thinking)Photo by Mark Beveridge (@marks_thinking)Photo by Mark Beveridge (@marks_thinking)
Mark Beveridge retweeted
Whenever I hear about some new AI threat I can’t help but think of these words from C. S. Lewis
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Mark Beveridge retweeted
What's happening right now in our capital markets is going to DESTROY the retirement savings of millions of Americans. Anyone of good conscience needs to rise up and say enough. This must be stopped. I don't say that lightly. I've been doing this for 45 years, and what's happening right now to the integrity of our capital markets is unlike anything I have ever seen. This is not about Elon Musk or Donald Trump. This is not about whether you like rockets or hate rockets. This is about the systematic CORRUPTION of the financial system that every American depends on for their retirement. In the entirety of its existence, Tesla has generated approximately $36 billion in cumulative profit. That includes over $20 billion in government emission credits and tax subsidies. The company is valued at $1.7 trillion and its CEO is the richest man on the planet. I'm not talking about the stock price. I know the stock has made people money. That's the popularity contest. I'm talking about whether this company creates enough economic value to JUSTIFY the capital invested in it. And it doesn't. The returns on invested capital have been chronically below what any serious investor would demand. That's not wealth creation. So the product here isn't the car. The product is the STOCK PRICE. Elon Musk is selling hopium and an entire generation of investors is buying it without even knowing what a PE ratio is. I posted two pieces recently on Tesla and SpaceX. Each got over 1.5 million impressions. Thousands of hate replies but NOT ONE response with an actual argument. Not one. It was all "Libtard" and "Elon derangement syndrome." You would not get past a first-round interview at Fidelity thinking this way. But Tesla is just the opening act... SpaceX just filed for a $1.75 TRILLION IPO. $15 billion in revenue but no profit in sight. The private valuation was walked up from $200 billion to $400 billion to $800 billion to $1.75 trillion in two years. And Reuters has confirmed that SpaceX made early inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 a necessary condition for listing on the exchange. Nasdaq obliged by adopting a "Fast Entry" rule in March that lets mega-cap IPOs join the index after just 15 trading days, completely exempt from the normal seasoning and liquidity requirements every other company had to meet. And this matters because over $600 billion in passive funds track the Nasdaq-100. Unlike the S&P 500, which still requires months of seasoning and stricter float thresholds, the Nasdaq-100 is now a 15-day on-ramp for trillion-dollar IPOs. Every ETF and mutual fund benchmarked to that index will be FORCED to buy SpaceX within weeks of it going public regardless of whether the valuation makes any sense. Your 401(k) is literally the exit liquidity. You don't even get a choice. The structure of the market makes you a participant whether you want to be or not. That's what makes this different from every other bubble in history... You can't opt out. And the agencies that were supposed to protect you from exactly this? They're doing NOTHING. Peter Lynch would always say the product is not the stock and the stock is not the product. Show me one Hall of Fame investor who ever made his fortune chasing hype. Lynch, Druckenmiller, Soros, Buffett, Griffin, Cohen. Not one of them managed money this way. It's only the cult on X who thinks momentum and greater fool is an investment strategy. As Buffett said, in the short run the market is a popularity contest. In the long run it's a weighing machine. This popularity contest has gone on longer than any I've witnessed in my career. But gravity always wins. And when it does, the people who forced your pension fund into a money-losing rocket company at 120x revenue will have a lot of explaining to do. This must stop. And it WILL stop. The only question is how much damage gets done first. Are you listening?
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Why would you pay 3Gs for that Here’s my pdf copy for free Just comment and repost and I’ll send you a copy
I asked my wife for a book for Christmas. She crushed it:
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I’m just going to say it - RBA should hike 50bps in December and send a message. We are cooked til 2028 if they do nothing, because the Labor govt has proven they will not stop spending or importing people. Monetary policy is the only viable lever at this point imo.. #wearefucked
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This album is still 🔥🔥🔥🔥
“At Last!” by Etta James was released on this day in 1960.
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Mark Beveridge retweeted
Sounds like a funded Ponzi or Pyramid scheme to me, but heck, what do I know about arbitrage...... I have only spent my career as a bond trader focusing on fixed income arbitrage involving synthetic swap spreads, positive carry models, yield curve modeling, basis trading, and synthetic basis trades (understanding the embedded optionally in the cash vs futures relationship in terms or rich vs cheap, changes in CTD, and horizon analysis to delivery).
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate target to 4.10 per cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances to 4 per cent. Read more: ow.ly/NvSK50V1Hac
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Mark Beveridge retweeted
You know where they don't have eggs anymore? Venezuela. You know why? Price controls
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China ran the 2000’s and they ran the iron ore price up from $20 to $200/t… as they built out their economy. India in 2020 is China 2.20? Only instead of lacking iron ore they lack coking coal 🧐 🧐
China produces ~1bt of steel per year and imports around ~100mtpa of #metcoal to produce this. A fraction of this is from seaborne markets with ~80% from Russia and Mongolia. India produces ~120mt of steel per year and imports ~80mtpa of coking coal. All of this from seaborne markets. There is already a big expectation that Chinese met demand will ease (-35% in next decade per below)… and yet global demand is expected to grow 🧐 The assertion that this is all a China trade seems to be overstated 🤔
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Mark Beveridge retweeted
Replying to @Tim_Denning
“Have we reached the ultimate stage of absurdity where some people are held responsible for things that happened before they were born, while other people are not held responsible for what they themselves are doing today?” -- Thomas Sowell 🐐
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Toyota just reported Q3: Operating margin: 12.6%. Tesla: 7.6% INCLUDING emission credits; 5.3% ex-credits Revenue: +24% year-over-year Tesla: +9% Operating profit: $9.52B Tesla: $1.76B $TM market cap: $235B $TSLA: $640B $TSLA is *still* the biggest bubble-fraud in history!
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Mark Beveridge retweeted
These aren't just pieces of paper to bet on or speculative with. Shares should be viewed as part ownership in a company, where underlying business fundamentals are (eventually) discounted despite the short-term noise of volatility. black = stock price orange = earnings
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Mark Beveridge retweeted
😉
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Mark Beveridge retweeted
Refreshing #SMSF knowledge around the technical aspects of SMSF borrowings (LRBAs) #NC2023 Key question: When to date the bare trust deed? Answer: Depends on the state 🌏 Below is what I use, if you’ve got a different opinion, let me know.
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People try to live within their income so they can afford to pay taxes to a government that can't live within its income. - Robert Half
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The US in not in an energy crisis right now. This SPR release is a disaster. When we have shortages here and we drained our reserves,,,I warned you.
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Mark Beveridge retweeted
The public will soon become aware that inflation is a deliberate policy & will go on endlessly. This will cause a breakdown to occur. The crack-up boom will appear. History repeats. The Continental in US in 1781, The French Mandats Territoriaux in 1796 & the German Mark in 1923.
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Mark Beveridge retweeted
Replying to @zhusu
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