Former sportswriter and stats geek (not nerd) for @washingtonpost. I got science for any occasion. Postulating theorems, formulating equations.
Joined May 2008
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Hot Seat, Cold Math: Which NFL coaches are in trouble after Week 2? The probability every NFL head coach will be replaced before next season. Commanders Dan Quinn is not as high as you would think. At least not yet. fancystats.substack.com/p/ho…
🤖 Made with AI
Neil Greenberg retweeted
This cant possibly be true
And I suspect Mr Roebber would not appreciate this conclusion attributed to him
I say this without having seen this paper in question
If "momentum" is not followed by "shmomentum", Id be highly skeptical of any claim
Neil Greenberg retweeted
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Take our sources. Use them in your reporting. No credit necessary.
How Dan Quinn operates on the field is fair game for criticism but man has he had some significant injuries to deal with during his tenure. Tough to give him a fair evaluation.
Neil Greenberg retweeted
Top team in the AL vs top team in the NL is excessively cool, and is somewhat rare in baseball history.
Throw in a fanbase guaranteed to have their first win ever, and TB starting 2 ex-MIL SP, and the World Series is going to be kind of a real blast.
mlb.com/news/mlb-world-serie…
Neil Greenberg retweeted
Friendly reminder that analytics is just an organized way to track the experiential knowledge football people have in their "gut".
"I've seen this a thousand times. Here's what we should do."
Analytics is the process of ACTUALLY looking at the 1000 times being referenced & providing information about what actually happened, and how it impacted what happened next.
No one in analytics is saying coaches shouldn't incorporate new and specific-to-the-situation information... just here is what history tells us.
Hot take? Commanders making the NFC championship game in Year 1 of new regime was the worst thing to happen to them.
Neil Greenberg retweeted
49ers beat Commanders and the NFC East will go winless in back-to-back weeks. This is first time every team in a division played in consecutive weeks and none of them won
It was nice to see Commanders respond in the second half last night but let's not pretend they were competitive even though the score suggests they might have been. Daniels QBR was 44.6, meaning his performance was good enough to guide an average team to 7-10/8-9 record.
Neil Greenberg retweeted
No exaggeration, this guy might be the best interview in pro sports right now
The gap in points between Connor McDavid (23) and 2nd place Jack Eichel (18) is the same as Eichel and Austin Matthews (13), 10th.
The last 200-point season? Gretzky 1985-86
Dan Quinn’s defenses finished no worse than sixth in five seasons as a defensive coordinator, according to expected points added per 100 snaps
In eight seasons as a head coach or head coach/defensive coordinator they finished in the top 20 once.
Here's an updated win forecast for the Commanders heading into the MNF match up against the 49ers. A lot has changed since the preseason.
Neil Greenberg retweeted
A walk through @Unexpected_Pts advanced review nuggets from Sunday.
Starting in London, the Texans got the win, but the Jags were a bit better by the adjusted scores.
The difference was on 3rd/4th conversions: +8.9 EPA to the Texans, plus to conversions via penalty for +5.1 EPA
Neil Greenberg retweeted
It’s all up to the Commanders. If they don’t beat the #49ers Monday night, the NFC East will be first division since merger to have every team play on back to back weeks and have none of them win
