Remember that AI productivity boom they were all promising??
Well, according to Apollo, there are NO signs of this through the broader economy.
The only sector that benefits is tech.
Read that again.
493 out of 500 companies in the S&P 500 saw no benefit from adopting AI...
Guess what, Anthropic S1 filing, a must have to pursue an IPO, not surprisingly hasn’t been made public by Friday. I am starting to think it might never publicly released because the moment the world sees what a horrible business Anthropic is, then AI bubble will implode
Get ready for grandma to move in with you.
AI companies are essentially building $1 million houses and selling them for $50,000.
It's easy to create demand when you lose a significant amount of money on every transaction.
Few people understand that unlike 2000, when this bubble pops it won't just affect the stock market, it will destroy passive investing, pension funds and insurance companies.
Baby boomers own the majority of the risk without knowing it, and on top of that they also have the largest exposure to the stock market.
The last leg holding the economy up are the baby boomers.
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
AI companies are essentially building $1 million houses and selling them for $50,000.
It's easy to create demand when you lose a significant amount of money on every transaction.
Few people understand that unlike 2000, when this bubble pops it won't just affect the stock market, it will destroy passive investing, pension funds and insurance companies.
Baby boomers own the majority of the risk without knowing it, and on top of that they also have the largest exposure to the stock market.
The last leg holding the economy up are the baby boomers.
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
The AI boom is narrower than almost anyone admits.
The top 10% of firms account for 99.5% of all model-serving spend, 99% of neocloud, and 95%+ of OpenAI and Anthropic billings. And 80.4% of the heaviest AI spenders run on venture capital, not their own revenue.
This is a concentrated, circular buildout. A handful of companies are the entire trade.
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
One of the world’s largest private equity firms just issued a report concluding: “Despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech.”
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
How DeepInfer Killed the AI IPO: Software Efficiency Just Shattered Silicon Valley’s Valuation Moat
DeepSeek’s Open-Source Masterstroke: Why Washington Banned DeepInfer to Save U.S. Frontier Labs
The Death of the AI Monopoly: How DeepInfer Made Billion-Dollar Inference Engines Free
For a long time, Silicon Valley operated on a single, unchallenged premise: building world-class artificial intelligence requires billions of dollars in capital, tens of thousands of top-tier GPUs, and massive, proprietary black-box systems. U.S. frontier labs raised sky-high venture funding rounds, selling investors on a clear future path—burn billions now to train and serve massive models, secure a market monopoly, and execute massive Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) to pay everyone back.
The release of DeepInfer completely shatters that narrative.
DeepInfer is DeepSeek’s open-source inference engine—the specialized software framework that actually runs AI models in production. For months, industry observers claimed Chinese labs like DeepSeek were simply undercutting American rivals by burning capital to subsidize token costs. But by open-sourcing DeepInfer, DeepSeek showed its math. The engine reveals how they serve over 100 trillion tokens daily at an astonishing estimated 80% gross profit margin. They aren't losing money on every query; they have simply engineered a drastically more efficient engine. By open sourcing their methods - most Frontier AI Labs will be adopting the innovations revealed.
Understanding why DeepInfer is technically groundbreaking doesn't require a computer science PhD. In standard AI systems, every single question you ask requires the entire AI model to wake up, re-read your entire context from scratch, and pass it across thousands of expensive chips. It is the computational equivalent of paying a team of brilliant professors to re-read an entire textbook every single time you ask a basic question.
DeepInfer changes this fundamentally:
•Smarter Work Division: It splits the model’s architecture into specialized "reader" and "writer" components, cutting the heavy prompt-reading workload in half.
•Smart Traffic Control: Through dynamic load balancing (EPLB), it shifts traffic seamlessly across GPUs so no single chip sits idle while another is overwhelmed.
•Prediction Verification: Instead of guessing randomly, it uses "confidence heads" to predict incoming text and only verifies high-probability guesses, saving massive amounts of compute.
•Smart Memory Caching: Through techniques like Bounded Replay, it caches only key historical anchors, allowing the model to remember long conversations without re-processing massive backlogs.
In plain terms, DeepInfer transforms running AI from an expensive, bespoke luxury process into a streamlined, high-speed assembly line.
This brings us to the core economic issue: Why open-sourcing DeepInfer undermines the upcoming IPOs of American frontier labs.
The business model of proprietary frontier labs relies on selling access to closed AI APIs at high prices. Investors value these companies at tens or hundreds of billions of dollars because they assume that hosting and serving high-performing AI is a moat—a technical secret that only a few hyper-funded U.S. giants can afford to maintain.
When DeepSeek open-sourced DeepInfer, they gave that exact operational secret away to the entire world for free.
Now, any developer, cloud provider, or enterprise can run state-of-the-art AI models on their own hardware—whether NVIDIA GPUs or alternative chips like Huawei Ascend—at a fraction of the traditional cost. DeepInfer turns complex AI serving into an open commodity. Why would an enterprise pay high margins to a closed provider when they can use an open-source framework to run highly capable models in-house or on public clouds for pennies?
By eliminating the cost moat around inference, DeepInfer threatens the revenue projections underpinning the multi-billion-dollar valuations of U.S. labs. If serving AI becomes cheap and accessible to everyone, the profit margins promised to Wall Street ahead of these anticipated IPOs shrink dramatically.
This financial threat explains the drastic geopolitical response: the Trump administration's sweeping ban on DeepSeek across federal agencies.
Under the banner of national security and software supply-chain protection, federal directives explicitly mandate the removal of DeepSeek technologies from government systems. While cybersecurity risks and data routing are cited as official justifications, the broader strategic mandate is industrial protectionism.
If U.S. enterprise adoption shifts heavily toward open-source frameworks like DeepInfer, the domestic market for proprietary U.S. AI services collapses. By banning DeepSeek within government agencies and pressuring federal contractors to scrub it from their software stacks, Washington is attempting to build a regulatory wall around domestic frontier labs. The goal is to guarantee a massive, captive domestic customer base—federal agencies, defense contractors, and regulated enterprise partners—to preserve the revenue streams and capital valuations of American AI champions.
Ultimately, DeepInfer proves that software architectural ingenuity can bypass raw hardware dominance. By releasing these efficiency secrets to the public, DeepSeek hasn't just published code—it has reshaped the underlying economics of the global AI industry.
cio.com/article/4238132/us-b…
Linus Torvalds uses Claude for Linux, but doesn’t want your AI code if you don’t understand it.
He wants “competent people to use AI as a tool” and criticizes drive by patches from people who don’t understand their submissions.
Newcomers are welcome, as long as they’re willing to learn and understand the code they submit.
Linus also identifies another problem. AI is finding real bugs, adding work for already overloaded maintainers.
His position is clear. Use AI, but understand the code you submit.
Full story: theregister.com/columnists/2…
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
> woke up to take a pee
> critical ruby vulnerability announced
> patching at 2am
this is life now.
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
La gente que dice: "¿quién usa PHP en 2026?"
Puede que sepa escribir código, pero no sabe nada del negocio de hacer software.
Kimi K3.1 Pro is outperforming Fable 5.1 while being 80% cheaper. Anthropic’s potential IPO is now at serious risk. Why would anyone buy shares at a $1.5 trillion valuation when a Chinese lab can deliver a better model at a fraction of the cost and release its weights openly? What’s the point?
This feels like a historic turning point for closed source vs open weight AI/SI, The gap has officially closed. The next few weeks are going to be absolutely insane, and every US AI lab should be on red alert right now.
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
BREAKING: Central banks around the world are quietly stockpiling four times as much gold as usual and are moving it out of the US, per FORTUNE
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
Holy shit.
I cannot WAIT to see Dario’s reaction.
Here comes another neurotic verbose open letter.
Kimi K3.1 Pro launches at 4th on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index scoring 55, making large gains in agentic performance; it will be the leading open-weights model once its weights are published
@Kimi_Moonshot's new reasoning model gains 11 points over Kimi K3 (max, 44). It trails only Claude Opus 5.5 (max with fallback, 58), Claude Sonnet 5.5 (max with fallback, 56), and Muse Wonder Full (max, 56) on the Intelligence Index.
Once the weights for K3.1 Pro are released it will be the highest-scoring open weights model and the gap between the leading open weights and proprietary models on the Intelligence Index will narrow from 12 points to 3.
Key results:
➤ Large gains in agentic performance: Kimi K3.1 Pro scores 3rd on GDPval-AA with 1,846 Elo, up 312 Elo from Kimi K3, behind only Claude Opus 5.5 (1,866 Elo) and Muse Wonder Full (1,857 Elo). Kimi K3.1 Pro also achieves the highest score of any model on Terminal-Bench 4.0. K3.1 Pro scores 67%, up from 13% for Kimi K3 and ahead of Claude Sonnet 5.5 (64%). AutomationBench-AA, which tests agentic SaaS workflows, rises from 58% to 73%.
➤ Gains in other evals are more moderate: Humanity's Last Exam rises from 47% to 52%, CritPt from 23% to 25%, and SciCode from 59% to 61%. AA-Omniscience Index rises from 20 to 30, as the hallucination rate falls from 53% to 44% and accuracy rises from 48% to 51%.
➤ Cost per Task roughly equal to Kimi K3 at $1.98 per Task: K3.1 Pro uses 55K output tokens per Intelligence Index task, 14% more than Kimi K3 at 48K, while its first-party token prices are 33% lower.
Additional model details:
➤ Context window: 1M tokens.
➤ Size: 2.8T total, 104B active parameters
➤ Input modalities: Text and image
➤ Weights and license: Weights currently not published, Moonshot is expected to release the weights soon after launch
➤ Pricing: $2/$10/$0.20 per 1M input/output/cache hit tokens, 33% lower than Kimi K3 on all three rates.
Congratulations to the team at @Kimi_Moonshot on the release!
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
BBC: Hablaremos con nuestro experto en seguridad de BBC respecto a la vulnerabilidad de PHP.
El experto en seguridad: No sabía que PHP existía hasta ayer en la mañana.
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
BREAKING: OpenAI says it found a critical flaw in Brotli, a widely used compression library built into software like Node.js, Bun and Envoy.
The bug could let an attacker take over a system just by sending it malicious compressed data, with no login needed. That works both ways: a hacker could hijack an unpatched server, or a malicious server could hijack an unpatched user’s device.
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
At this point can we say that gatekeeping cyber security capabilities by the frontier labs is done intentionally for fearmongering purposes?
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
I called it we will get our first Chinese model that beat fable 5 before end of year, and this is not end of year and comparing it with Fable 5 is not even fair. Cause it beats even better models.
Kimi-K3.1-Pro is insane !!
It's a 3T model, open-weight going soon !
- 1M token context window
The full model weights will be released by Nov 4.
It is now above GPT-6-Astra and Claude-Fable 5.1 and really close to Opus-5.5 🔥
It is also way better than current leading models like DeepSeek-v4.1-flash-1017 and GLM-5.3
On Terminal-Bench 4.0:
- Kimi-K3.1 Pro: 65.7%
- GPT-6 Astra: 58.2%
- Claude Opus 5.5: 66.4%
That difference with Opus5.5 is not even a single percentage.
This is also while being incredibly cheaper than Opus-5.5 !!!
Introducing Kimi K3.1 Pro: our most capable 3T-class open-weight model.
🔹 1M-token context, 2.8T total / 104B active params (MoE), Multimodal.
🔹 Full-project coding: games in Unreal, Unity & Godot.
🔹 Excels at parametric 3D modeling in Blender & CAD.
🔹 More reliable at finance work: Accurate modeling with hallucination down by 65%.
🔹 Matching the strongest proprietary models across coding, agentic and knowledge benchmarks.
Kimi K3.1 Pro and K3.1 Pro Highspeed (2–3× faster) are now live on Kimi.ai, Kimi Work, Kimi Code, and the Kimi API.
Open weights by Nov 4, 2026.
🔗 API: platform.kimi.ai
🔗 Tech blog: kimi.ai/blog/kimi-k3-1-pro
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
Kimi K3.1 Pro launches at 4th on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index scoring 55, making large gains in agentic performance; it will be the leading open-weights model once its weights are published
@Kimi_Moonshot's new reasoning model gains 11 points over Kimi K3 (max, 44). It trails only Claude Opus 5.5 (max with fallback, 58), Claude Sonnet 5.5 (max with fallback, 56), and Muse Wonder Full (max, 56) on the Intelligence Index.
Once the weights for K3.1 Pro are released it will be the highest-scoring open weights model and the gap between the leading open weights and proprietary models on the Intelligence Index will narrow from 12 points to 3.
Key results:
➤ Large gains in agentic performance: Kimi K3.1 Pro scores 3rd on GDPval-AA with 1,846 Elo, up 312 Elo from Kimi K3, behind only Claude Opus 5.5 (1,866 Elo) and Muse Wonder Full (1,857 Elo). Kimi K3.1 Pro also achieves the highest score of any model on Terminal-Bench 4.0. K3.1 Pro scores 67%, up from 13% for Kimi K3 and ahead of Claude Sonnet 5.5 (64%). AutomationBench-AA, which tests agentic SaaS workflows, rises from 58% to 73%.
➤ Gains in other evals are more moderate: Humanity's Last Exam rises from 47% to 52%, CritPt from 23% to 25%, and SciCode from 59% to 61%. AA-Omniscience Index rises from 20 to 30, as the hallucination rate falls from 53% to 44% and accuracy rises from 48% to 51%.
➤ Cost per Task roughly equal to Kimi K3 at $1.98 per Task: K3.1 Pro uses 55K output tokens per Intelligence Index task, 14% more than Kimi K3 at 48K, while its first-party token prices are 33% lower.
Additional model details:
➤ Context window: 1M tokens.
➤ Size: 2.8T total, 104B active parameters
➤ Input modalities: Text and image
➤ Weights and license: Weights currently not published, Moonshot is expected to release the weights soon after launch
➤ Pricing: $2/$10/$0.20 per 1M input/output/cache hit tokens, 33% lower than Kimi K3 on all three rates.
Congratulations to the team at @Kimi_Moonshot on the release!
By design, LLMs hit a hard wall.
You cannot just scale them up to get the ASI we want.
Instead, think of advanced LLMs as a stepping stone.
They will do the heavy lifting to help us invent the entirely new architecture needed for real ASI.
This quoted post is unavailable.
Ryan Waterbury - One Dog Solutions retweeted
The US chip ban was supposed to cripple Chinese AI. Instead it's crippling Nvidia's revenue and building China's self-sufficiency.
Huawei controls half of China's $50 billion AI chip market. 160,000 Huawei chips ordered. A gigawatt-scale data center in Inner Mongolia. DeepSeek designing its own silicon. Chinese open-source models hit 41% of Hugging Face downloads, passing the US at 36.5%.
DeepSeek is likely to rely primarily on Huawei's already mature and well-developed technology stack by 2027 or 2028. CUDA becomes irrelevant. Nvidia becomes optional.
Washington's response? Put DeepSeek on the entity list. Because the last round of sanctions worked so well.
The chip ban is the most expensive own goal in American tech history and nobody in DC will admit it because they'd have to admit the entire strategy was wrong.
scmp.com/tech/tech-war/artic…
#China #techwar #chips #tech
@baoshaoshan @thecyrusjanssen @DOualaalou @lajohnstondr @PSTAsiatech
































