Pranami Hayaran

retail investors, aspiring equity analysts, business & market/macro nerds thanks me later groundamentals.com

stuff i wish to be on

turns out even 10,000 monte carlo simulations weren’t enough to price in jensen huang cheating as a market scenario

$NVDA another screening factor should be if the CEO has ever been involved in infidelity or not

i will never not laugh whenever someone calls temple a rajma-looking device 😭😭😭😭

Happy Diwali! 🪔 This is a sign to buy some gold ETFs during Muhurat Trading!

just read earrings as earnings fml

boring businesses make safe venture investments

Marico has entered into a strategic venture with the founders of Bonorizon Consumer Ventures, agreeing to acquire a 51% stake for up to ₹35 crore. a few interesting details to note about the transaction: 1. Bonorizon was incorporated on 22 October 2026 and is headquartered in Mumbai. 2. the company operates in the FMCG and consumer products space and has a wholly owned subsidiary, Bonorizon Consumer Ventures LLC. 3. Marico is acquiring its stake through a primary subscription, meaning the capital goes into the company. 4. the transaction is valued at up to ₹35 crore and is expected to close within 90 days of signing the definitive agreements. 5. Marico also has the right to acquire the remaining 49% after three years, with the consideration to be determined at that point, subject to milestones and other conditions. Marico explicitly wants to accelerate its digital growth engine in international markets and evolve into a more well-rounded Indian multinational FMCG company. Bonorizon is a newly incorporated entity with no applicable turnover yet. this isn’t a conventional acquisition of an established consumer brand. the actual business model, products, founders’ capabilities and target markets haven’t been publicly disclosed. for Marico, the opportunity could be about building capabilities and unlocking new growth avenues in international consumer markets.

the first-order effects of growing up in a family with generational relationships across businesses in your hometown are crazy. what do you mean the owner of the best sweet shop in my city still remembers me walking in at 10 years old and handing me a kaju katli every single time, and absolutely nothing has changed even today.

CMP ₹17 dividend announced ₹40/share market cap is less than QUARTERLY net profit but very illiquid

this is such an awful take i can’t emphasise enough. there very much is a race bro stop being complacent, had there been no race or the innate feeling to just do better, there would be absolutely zero progress.

imagine being underweight apple on earnings thinking you’ve made a great call and instantly realizing the mistake three sessions later

i think we should all collectively forget the concept of calories this diwali

brewed up insights #133 SEBI's old settlement demands were 8x the final penalties SEBI's new settlement rules take effect on 7 November 2026. a board paper published in September explains why the rules needed changing. in cases where settlement talks failed over the last 2 years, the amount SEBI demanded was, on average, 8 times the penalty it eventually imposed. a settlement lets someone accused of breaking market rules pay SEBI and close the case without admitting guilt. the idea is simple: paying to settle should be cheaper than fighting the case. but SEBI's old formula often made settlement too expensive. out of 1,576 settlement applications received over 3 years, only 568 resulted in settlements. another 640, or 40%, were returned, rejected or withdrawn. the old formula also counted wrongful gains twice: first while calculating the settlement amount and then again when the person had to return the money. the new formula tries to make the amount more predictable. it starts with the minimum penalty prescribed by law and multiplies it based on who is settling. for example, an independent director pays 2 times this amount, while an exchange or depository pays 5.5 times. the stage of the case, previous violations and seriousness of the breach can increase the amount further. first-time applicants must pay at least ₹3 lakh. this means people can estimate the cost of settling a SEBI case in advance. the amount is still designed to be higher than the normal penalty, but should be more reasonable than before. people with pending cases, including those whose earlier settlement applications were rejected, get 90 days to apply under the new rules by paying an additional 20%. SEBI's bet is that more reasonable settlement amounts will encourage more people to settle, instead of dragging cases through lengthy proceedings.

brewed up insights #132 Tilaknagar's 18% margin target depends on how customs classifies its Scotch on 6 November 2026, Tilaknagar Industries said the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) had seized imported goods worth ₹30.14 crore. that is relatively small compared with the ₹665 crore of materials the company used in Q2 FY27. the bigger concern is whether it will have to pay higher import duty on the Scotch used in its whisky. Tilaknagar makes Mansion House brandy. it also owns Imperial Blue whisky, which it bought in 2025. Imperial Blue made up 5.5 million of the 8.9 million cases the company sold in Q2. the whisky uses imported Scotch malt brought into India in bulk. on 22 October, DRI searched the company's office and a factory. it was part of a wider investigation into which customs code should apply to bulk Scotch. a customs code is simply a number used to classify imported goods and decide how much duty they attract. Tilaknagar says it has always used the same code and that this is an industry-wide issue under the India-UK trade deal. it matters because from 15 July 2026, India cut import duty on Scotch whisky from 150% to 75%. this will gradually fall to 40% over 10 years. but the lower duty does not cover compound alcoholic preparations used to make drinks. these still attract 150% duty. DRI has not disclosed which code it believes applies to Tilaknagar's imports. Tilaknagar expects the lower duty to add about 1 percentage point to its EBITDA margin (operating profit as a share of sales). the company is targeting an 18% margin by FY29, compared with 14.1% in Q2 FY27. so this duty cut accounts for roughly a quarter of the improvement it needs to reach that target. it has not benefited from the lower duty yet because it was still selling older inventory in Q2. a quarter of Tilaknagar's planned margin improvement depends on whether customs classifies its imported Scotch as whisky or as a compound alcoholic preparation.