
average observer of prediction markets | @problyhq
Joined February 2021
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Harry Kane would be a well-deserved Ballon d'or winner. he really deserves it.
it's also interesting how easily people can be fooled by different rumors:
first, rumors about a leak and insider info claiming that Kylian Mbappe had won pushed his chances from 6.9% to 22%
then Real Madrid representatives showed up after the club had boycotted the ceremony, followed by another sharp jump in Mbappe's chances from 20% to 40% after news broke that RM tv would livestream the winner announcement
two pieces of fake news, two chances to make a solid profit on the same event
easy $50 from $150 on the 2026 ballon d'or ceremony.
you can place your prediction on @problyhq
after looking at the winners from previous years and trying to find a pattern in how journalists vote, i realized that Mbappe has been way too hyped over the last 2 days and people are just falling for fake news
if we put emotions and insider info aside and use cold logic, here's what we get:
1. Lamine Yamal: 2026 world cup winner, la liga champion and a perfect fair play reputation
2. Harry Kane: a historic record of 73 goals in one season and a domestic treble with Bayern
3. Kylian Mbappe: three golden boots (world cup, champions league and la liga) and the all-time top scorer in world cup history with 22 goals
based on these facts, Kylian had an incredible individual season. but Real Madrid lost La Liga, and France failed to win the World Cup
giving him the ballon d'or would mean completely ignoring the basic principles of france football
BS retweeted
easy $50 from $150 on the 2026 ballon d'or ceremony.
you can place your prediction on @problyhq
after looking at the winners from previous years and trying to find a pattern in how journalists vote, i realized that Mbappe has been way too hyped over the last 2 days and people are just falling for fake news
if we put emotions and insider info aside and use cold logic, here's what we get:
1. Lamine Yamal: 2026 world cup winner, la liga champion and a perfect fair play reputation
2. Harry Kane: a historic record of 73 goals in one season and a domestic treble with Bayern
3. Kylian Mbappe: three golden boots (world cup, champions league and la liga) and the all-time top scorer in world cup history with 22 goals
based on these facts, Kylian had an incredible individual season. but Real Madrid lost La Liga, and France failed to win the World Cup
giving him the ballon d'or would mean completely ignoring the basic principles of france football
easy $50 from $150 on the 2026 ballon d'or ceremony.
you can place your prediction on @problyhq
after looking at the winners from previous years and trying to find a pattern in how journalists vote, i realized that Mbappe has been way too hyped over the last 2 days and people are just falling for fake news
if we put emotions and insider info aside and use cold logic, here's what we get:
1. Lamine Yamal: 2026 world cup winner, la liga champion and a perfect fair play reputation
2. Harry Kane: a historic record of 73 goals in one season and a domestic treble with Bayern
3. Kylian Mbappe: three golden boots (world cup, champions league and la liga) and the all-time top scorer in world cup history with 22 goals
based on these facts, Kylian had an incredible individual season. but Real Madrid lost La Liga, and France failed to win the World Cup
giving him the ballon d'or would mean completely ignoring the basic principles of france football
BS retweeted
It's official: Polymarket is now a Preferred Prediction Market Exchange of the NBA 🏀
Official NBA data, exclusive activations, and a whole new era of basketball starts now.
67¢ on Polymarket doesn't necessarily mean you're paying 67¢
I checked a real tennis market. After taker fees, the effective price was 68.1¢
MagicMarkets showed 64.5¢ for the same outcome. Here's what that meant for a $100 trade
I compared Michele Ribecai vs Jacopo Vasami using Thumper
For Michele Ribecai:
-> Polymarket payout: $147
-> MagicMarkets payout: $155
-> $8 more on MagicMarkets
Same match. Same bet size. Different prices
Thumper is a free Chrome extension by @MagicMarkets that shows MagicMarkets prices alongside Polymarket
MagicMarkets offers zero commission, but isn't always cheaper
Don't just check the displayed odds. Check the actual payout
1/ i built a chrome extension for @magicmarkets that shows you when polymarket isn't the cheapest place to take a sports position
it's called thumper. Free to use, no account required 🧵
the co-main event of UFC 333: Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili
if you think Petr will defend his title, Magic Markets offers a slightly better price on him
you can also compare odds across platforms using 'Thumper', a chrome extension built by @MagicMarkets and @tebrabbit
1/ i built a chrome extension for @magicmarkets that shows you when polymarket isn't the cheapest place to take a sports position
it's called thumper. Free to use, no account required 🧵
making a prediction on today's UFC 333 card with zero commission and better odds
@MagicMarkets and @tebrabbit built a chrome extension called thumper that helps you find better odds across prediction markets
it's simple:
1. install the extension
2. open any event on polymarket
3. click the thumper icon to instantly compare odds and see where you can get a better price
for example, i checked today's main event: Alex Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev
the odds on magic markets are slightly better because polymarket also charges a small fee on trades, which cuts into your potential profit
1.97 vs 1.91
even a small difference like this can matter over time
1/ i built a chrome extension for @magicmarkets that shows you when polymarket isn't the cheapest place to take a sports position
it's called thumper. Free to use, no account required 🧵
BS retweeted
Polymarket affiliates now earn Revenue share on Predictions.
20%+ of the fees your referrals pay on Predictions and Perps. No cap per referral.
Biggest upgrade our affiliate program has ever had. Everyone now can earn from the biggest prediction market without limits.
My calculations show increase of average affiliate income from 2 to 7x, some even 10x.
No better time to join us.
it’s been a week since i paid for premium and i still haven’t got my checkmark
@elonmusk what happened? 😭
the funniest part is i can’t even dm @Subscriptions for support because i don’t have a checkmark. but apparently i need to dm them to get one
a never-ending loop
@Support
BS retweeted
This is total nonsense.
We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece.
Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living hand-to-mouth running the company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together.
After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception.
But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else.
It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal.
Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him.
Enough of this stupid FUD.
The end.
🚨 BREAKING : Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan caught using COMPANY MONEY for Private Jets flights.
Peter Thiel caught him red-handed using his investment money as a personal wallet.
Founders Fund, Peter Thiel's fund, discovered that Shayne had charged the following as company expenses :
- private jet flights
- apartment rent
- designer clothes
They immediately demanded a FULL REFUND
Shayne was forced to reimburse the money.
ICE and Founders Fund then teamed up to push for stronger financial controls
They were the one that forced Shayne to appoint a COO.
You remember Shayne's ChatGPT written tweet gleefully announcing the hiring of Collin McKinney Hill as COO ?
I called it extremely suspicious at the time. Turns out i was right, investors basically forced Shayne to hire him as a soft coup.
I don't know how long Shayne can stay in place when their main investors have lost confidence.
just think about it, only 2 months ago they lost on a tier 3 tournament with the same roster to streamers from the WW team.
and now they beat the world #1 team 2-0. Team Spirit and donk just couldnt do anything against them.
absolutely insane.
Today our 1win team beat the world's #1 team, Team Spirit, 2-0 in the esports title CS2 and broke into the top 14 teams in the world @1win_cs2
Exactly 3 months ago we decided to change our approach to the esports division, and the results didn't take long.
The team will get a $100k bonus from me for such a top performance.
BS retweeted
🔥 NEW: Polymarket CEO @shayne_coplan says NYSE parent ICE is one of Polymarket's biggest shareholders and is thinking hard about onchain equity alongside regulators.
BS retweeted
Last weekend’s revenue:
Polymarket: $9.9m
Hyperliquid: $2.64m
$HYPE is an $86 billion token 🧐
my first experience with leverage on event markets:
trying a small test position on the China open - ATP Beijing match between Zhizhen Zhang vs Arthur Gea
the odds on the clear favorite Gea are 1.25 (or 79% probability)
if i put $10 on him, the payout would only be $12.50
so i decided to try 2.25x leverage with $13
if i don't get liquidated before the probability drops to 55%, i should be able to get around $37 back (2.85x)
i don't really see Arthur, who's been in good form lately, giving up the first set to the chinese player
so i'm willing to take this small risk. lfg
After 9 years. 16K+ family homes. 500M sqft inside real homes covered, we know home robots are being built in wrong order.
So we built Matic the way nature grows a child.
Finally, sharing our vision:
1. Why robots get stuck at the demo
2. Why labs can't ship robots
3. Why we started with eyes, not hands
4. The 99.999% rule in robotics
5. Where Matic is going next
1. Why most robots get stuck at demos
Robot demos look brilliant in a room arranged around its limitations: familiar lighting, predictable furniture, nothing troublesome on the floor.
A family’s home makes no such accommodations. There are cables, toys, shifting rugs and, occasionally, dog poop. Yes, humanoids will need to avoid that too.
Repeating a task under familiar conditions of uncluttered floors is not the same as handling an unfamiliar home with all its chaos.
2. Why labs can't ship robots
SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping) is how a robot maps its surroundings and locates itself within them. Ask most academics and they'll tell you it's a solved problem.
But real homes are the most chaotic spaces that exist.
There are glass doors that look like open doorways, mirrors, stairs, rugs, charging cables, and Legos placed all around.
So ask yourself: if indoor mapping and navigation is "solved," where are the robots? Why aren't airports, hotels and grocery stores full of them?
Calling it “solved” misses the question families actually care about: can I leave this thing alone and trust it?
3. Why we started with eyes, not hands
Nature doesn't give birth to a fully working human. We took our cue from how nature develops humans: capabilities built on one another.
Children learn to see before they learn to grab, and to grab before they learn to plan and handle the unexpected.
Perception comes first. Manipulation follows. More complex responsibilities come after that. At every stage, the robot must earn the next job by doing its current one well enough.
Before asking a robot to pick up a sock, we wanted it to understand where it was, where the sock was, and how to reach it.
Most of the industry started at the top, with humanoids. We started at the bottom, with a robot whose job is to see and move through a home precisely with 1cm accuracy in any lighting condition.
Floor cleaning gave that foundation an immediately useful job. It forced us to confront navigation, clutter, privacy and everyday reliability before reaching for more complex chores.
The floor cleaner isn’t a detour from our larger ambition. It is how we’re building toward it.
4. The 99.999% rule in robotics
At 90%, one in ten decisions is wrong, and a robot makes thousands in a single clean. That's the robot that bumps, gets lost, and falls down the stairs.
Every extra nine is a new mountain. The failures get rarer, harder to find, and exponentially harder to fix. They barely even happen until they happen in your home.
Matic's visual SLAM runs at 99.999% in 16K+ homes. We’re the ONLY unsupervised home robot at scale with pure vision-only full autonomy. If you ask us, the gap between 80% and 99.999% is where our 9 years of engineering went.
We close that gap inside real homes. When Matic handles something imperfectly, it saves a short clip and keeps it on the device. It only leaves if the family chooses to share it. If they do, it gets labeled, fed back into the model, and every Matic gets smarter, including theirs.
Families control what leaves their homes. We do the work of making the product better.
Better robots earn trust > trust brings more homes > and more homes teach the robot more.
5. Where Matic is going next
Phase one was perception and it's nearly done. Matic has covered 500 million square feet, 400K miles in thousands of real lived-in homes.
Now phase two is going to be about manipulation. And our idea is to build a robot that doesn't just move through your home, but acts in it to eliminate even more chores.
Each step must be useful today, not justified by something we promise tomorrow. The evolution of Matic is the revolution.
The goal isn’t to put the most impressive humanoid in your living room.
It’s giving your family time and energy back through robots that earn your trust, protect your privacy, and help without becoming another responsibility.
More time for each other. Less work getting in the way.
That’s Matic.
Get yours today at maticrobots.com
a new CIS LAN tournament starts in about 10 minutes
and the very first match is supposed to be UPGRADE vs REFRESHER
REFRESHER still isn't on hltv, and the match doesn't even show up on their website
their lineup is also still unknown just 20 minutes before the match
hopefully this is just hltv being careless and not another match that never happens just to make a few K$
also kinda funny that the second match happening at the same time is HOTU vs Black Phoenix
black phoenix, who were heavily suspected of 322 by the community, to the point where their matches are no longer being added to polymarket
there's a pretty funny situation involving a CIS CS tournament & Polymarket
there's a LAN tournament happening in Moscow rn, also covered by HLTV
these matches are listed on polymarket as well as different bookies
but unlike bookmakers, canceled matches on polymarket can resolve 50/50, meaning everyone gets the same payout regardless of the price they bought at
and apparently some yung cs players started abusing this:
they would register for the tournament -> pay the entry fee -> get their match listed on polymarket -> then one of the players wouldn't show up for some made-up reason -> the match gets canceled -> profit
the tournament organizers eventually caught the scheme and disqualified one of the teams
they also added a new rule to prevent similar situations from happening again
pretty interesting case
i wouldn't be surprised if something similar happened somewhere else too, not just in cs
what do u think?
BS retweeted
We usually don't share timelines, but we want to be as transparent as possible about the new Rust CLOB build-out for Polymarket DeFi. The current CLOB is the system behind most of the issues we see today, so we've got all hands on deck building the new one.
- Oct - full order lifecycle working end to end in staging: trading + settlement flow + onchain + indexer + engine notification flow
- Nov - mirroring full production traffic to the new exchange cluster and diffing outputs against the current system. MM test access opens in Nov; we'll confirm the exact date by the end of Oct.
- Nov - migration cutover plan locked, with 2x full rehearsals before we flip anything
If all goes well, we then release it.
The migration is designed to require minimal to no work on any MM/developer's side. Request and response interfaces should stay as they are: we may add extra useful fields, one field may be deprecated, and anything we deprecate will have a notice period before go-live.
Honest post: the Polymarket DeFi CLOB is full of tech debt. It grew fast, got hacked together, and most of the team inherited it that way. Since joining and building out the team, we have scaled it 10x and made it 3x faster, but it’s not enough; the core foundations of how it’s been built are wrong in almost every way. You try to fix one thing, and another thing goes wrong; the conclusion now is that the codebase can’t be saved long-term.
The exchange is the heart of Polymarket; everything runs through it. If we want to be the best exchange in the world, it must be fast, stable, and scalable. We can’t keep patching the old one, where these core foundations are generally missing throughout, so we’re rewriting it from scratch in Rust.
Early numbers: 10-20x faster on p99 than today, 200,000 orders per second (15x what we have now, with room to reach 400,000+), and stability under load. This will put us faster than most exchanges, including CEXs.
Building it in Rust gives us memory safety with no garbage collector. No GC means no random pauses and no random latency spikes; the tail latency in the benchmarks is the tail latency you get in production, alongside a strict compiler that enforces correctness up front. Data races and memory corruption (the bugs that take exchanges down) can’t exist in the first place.
Polymarket has to take it seriously that we are an exchange; this is people’s money, not a joke. To succeed, we have to fix this; otherwise, we will fail. It’s as simple as that. I joined to build the best software in the world, not to maintain some of the worst, and I will do everything I can to make Polymarket a serious exchange.
We are aiming to have the exchange ready sometime in Q4 (mid to end). I'll communicate progress as we go so you all know the status. Breaking changes will be minimal for all integrators and will be communicated in advance. We will maintain the existing CLOB and keep trying to improve it as we build this side by side. We can’t wait to throw away the existing CLOB; we dislike it as much as you all do.
Make Polymarket fast, finally.
i've noticed this so many times now - the odds on the same matches can be so different across bookies
one example is the PGL Wallachia lower bracket final - NaVi vs LGD:
1.50 vs 1.67
there are so many edges like this every day
most people still don't know about them
market: polymarket.com/esports/dota-…

































