Decoding global chaos through prediction markets. From Ukraine fronts to Middle East bets – insider vibes on wars, elections, and tariffs

Internet
Joined December 2024
My $WAR vault has reached +25% this month that's 244% APY for investors ! not bad for passive yield. the vault statistics actually show only 62% APY because they count from february when the vault was created, but not launched yet. In reality (1+0.25)^(12/3) = 2.44 so the real number is 244% if i can keep this rate the chart is pretty smooth lately because i'm trying to stay diversified and never exceeding 10% bankroll per position. TVL has also grown +3x from $2.6K last month to $8.6k now from all the next deposits but there is still room to grow so don't hesitate to chip in. I will put the link below for those that want to profit from $WAR 👇
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Zelensky did NOT capitulate to Russia ! I'm shorting this fake news. NO Ukraine x Russia ceasefire by March 2027 (+32%) 💸 What Zelensky is doing is just restating the position that he held since 2024 : > Freeze of the frontline on the current position. > Diplomacy later He expressed it many times in the past : - November 2024 to Sky News: "I propose freezing the frontline and taking back the occupied territories later through diplomacy." - September 2025 to Axios: “We are ready to get it back sometime [the occupied territories] in the future in a diplomatic way, not with weapons.” - December 20, 2025 in Press briefing: “We stay where we are – on the contact line in any region of our state.” talking about as a possible ceasefire agreement. June 7, 2026 — Sky News: Asked whether he would freeze the front line at its current position: “Yes. It's the quickest way.” And *every single time*, Putin rejected. Why would it be different now ? Russia still think they are winning the war of attrition, Ukraine still believe the opposite. They will keep fighting it out until there is an undeniable victor. NO CEASFIRE
MASSIVE NEWS: Zelenskyy agrees to take the defeat and the whooping loss of 25% of his country's territory. Russia won
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You guys are crazy. INSANE engagement on this post: tons of DMs, questions, and takes. So let me break it down. First: I don't have an opinion here. I'm reporting in a way that engages the audience. Successfully. Personally, I don't have a dog in this fight. Does he fly private? I don't care. It's not my money. He doesn't owe anyone an airdrop. It's a private company, and he answers to his shareholders. Period. I've also gotten a lot of DMs about a SoHo penthouse declared as an office, PJ flights to a basketball game with a YouTuber, and other things I won't post publicly because I can't verify them, and I don't want to be the source. Shayne made his investors money, right? So what's the problem? Nobody is hurt! That said, where there's smoke, there's fire. This isn't all a paid campaign. Now, here's what I find genuinely fascinating: this post is a perfect snapshot of how the X bubble works. The replies fall into a few clear groups: 1. VCs with a bag, defending their bag. That's their incentive, right or wrong. They'd be insane to publicly trash a company they want to take public and cash out of. No hard feelings, they're doing their job. You just need to understand it, my friend. 2. The dickriders. They see VCs commenting, ALSO they're currently raising capital or about to, so they "agree" with the VCs. Subtly, but they do. That "I'm not kissing the ring, but I'm on your side" energy. If you're reading this: does it work? 3. People I know for a fact work for Polymarket, disclosed or not. They comment nicely because they want their salary. Which is fine. They need to live; they want nice things. It's a mutual deal. That's capitalism. 4. The airdrop farmers from Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, still commenting "gPOLY" and still believing. Poor souls. Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do. 5. The usual crowd pissed at Poly for whatever reason, adding their two cents. And no, I'm definitely not being paid in cash for this. I'm paid by you, my dear followers: your engagement and your company in this beautiful town square called X (formerly Twitter). Thank you for your attention to this matter.
🚨 BREAKING : Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan caught using COMPANY MONEY for Private Jets flights. Peter Thiel caught him red-handed using his investment money as a personal wallet. Founders Fund, Peter Thiel's fund, discovered that Shayne had charged the following as company expenses : - private jet flights - apartment rent - designer clothes They immediately demanded a FULL REFUND Shayne was forced to reimburse the money. ICE and Founders Fund then teamed up to push for stronger financial controls They were the one that forced Shayne to appoint a COO. You remember Shayne's ChatGPT written tweet gleefully announcing the hiring of Collin McKinney Hill as COO ? I called it extremely suspicious at the time. Turns out i was right, investors basically forced Shayne to hire him as a soft coup. I don't know how long Shayne can stay in place when their main investors have lost confidence.
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Internet Child retweeted
Founders Fund actually made sure Shayne can't be fired, according to Bloomberg. Best ad for founders to take money from FF.
Spent 30 minutes in line at Dominique Ansel Bakery in Soho today, running a little Polymarket CEO experiment in my head. If Shayne is really out in the next couple of months. Who is gonna run Polymarket? Why should he be out, you say? The setup is pure cinema: -- Polymarket is now far behind Kalshi, with outages, angry customers, lawsuits, and a fresh CFTC investigation. -- The NFA reportedly threatened to drop them as a client over record-keeping -- Raising at a $21B valuation while weighing an IPO against a token. Best case, Shayne goes exec chair and hands an operator the keys. If I had a board seat, here's who I'd call: 1) @AsiffHirji - Already did this exact job: Coinbase president/COO, scaled it past $1B in revenue. - Ameritrade and HP restructuring on the résumé. - Catch: never the top CEO, no CFTC reps. 2) Heath Tarbert. - Ex-CFTC chair, ex-Citadel Securities CLO, now Circle president (aka the USDC guy). - Best answer to the regulator problem. - Catch: not a product operator, and Circle's CFO is leaving at year-end, so good luck prying him loose. 3) Chris Concannon - Took Bats public, sold it to Cboe. - Runs MarketAxess, which ICE agreed to buy. Basically ICE's dream pick. - Catch: zero crypto If it ever happened: • Hirji = Polymarket grows up without losing the plot • Tarbert = the CFTC problem gets a lot quieter • Concannon = welcome to the ICE Cinematic Universe Soho bakery lines remain undefeated.
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LMAO Kalshi just signed a deal with a fake tribal chief ! They tried to sign with a Native American tribe to launch a Kalshi partnered prediction market. Except the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR. Kalshi has been trying to court the support of Native tribes with the following deal : - The tribes launch their own branded prediction market apps. - Kalshi provides the exchange, liquidity and infrastructure. - Tribes receive a percentage of trading fees. They already signed 5 tribes and thought they had just signed a 6th when they struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, the chief of the Alabama-Quassarte tribe. But the next day, Samuel Marshall, claiming to be the actual Chief denounced the deal saying : - His leadership NEVER approved the deal. - He only discovered it through a CNN report. - The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe. Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power. Samuel Marshall Jr. (real) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions. Now this dispute turns into a legal conflict : > The legitimist faction behind Samuel Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief. > The impostor faction, supported by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief. Kalshi tried cynically buy the support of Native Americans tribes in their upcoming supreme court battle for the legality of prediction markets. Now they are looking forward to a long legal process trying to adjudicate a Triblal succession dispute.
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LMAO Kalshi just signed a deal with a fake tribal chief ! They tried to sign with a Native American tribe to launch a Kalshi partnered prediction market. Except the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR. Kalshi has been trying to court the support of Native tribes with the following deal : - The tribes launch their own branded prediction market apps. - Kalshi provides the exchange, liquidity and infrastructure. - Tribes receive a percentage of trading fees. They already signed 5 tribes and thought they had just signed a 6th when they struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, the chief of the Alabama-Quassarte tribe. But the next day, Samuel Marshall, claiming to be the actual Chief denounced the deal saying : - His leadership NEVER approved the deal. - He only discovered it through a CNN report. - The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe. Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power. Samuel Marshall Jr. (real) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions. Now this dispute turns into a legal conflict : > The legitimist faction behind Samuel Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief. > The impostor faction, supported by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief. Kalshi tried cynically buy the support of Native Americans tribes in their upcoming supreme court battle for the legality of prediction markets. Now they are looking forward to a long legal process trying to adjudicate a Triblal succession dispute.
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Internet Child retweeted
Robinhood allegedly preparing a NINE-FIGURE grant program for Robinhood Chain. That's >$100M for builders. Most of it likely going to Prediction Markets. that's *at least* 100x the previous $1M grant program they announced in February. This will make RobinHood chain's activity EXPLODE. The initial hype and grant program made growth skyrocket when they launched the chain in July. in only 2 months from launch RobinHood achieved: - $53.3B in monthly DEX volume - 10.8M daily transactions peak - Over $1B in stablecoin supply But since mid September, the momentum started fading : - Daily transactions down 42% - Active addresses down 31% - Bridge TVL down from $855M in September to $648M now. I see this play as a massive cash injection by Robinhood to try and regain their early momentum If we go by the previous program the money will be distributed to teams building : - Tokenized asset infrastructure - AI-powered financial services - Credit and lending protocols - *Prediction market infrastructure* This is an amazing opportunity for builders in the space. Because let's be real, Polymarket/Kalshi never really went out of their ways to reward builders. No real grants. No promotion. No technical support. So If you are a Prediction Market builder I strongly recommend you look into the incoming RobinHood grant program. the future of Prediction Markets might be on RobinHood chain.
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Internet Child retweeted
Haseeb is NOT telling you the full truth! Here’s what actually happened behind closed doors with Shayne, Tarek, Peter Thiel, Mustafa, ICE, and one key player Bloomberg conveniently left out (you already know who).
This is total nonsense. We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece. Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living hand-to-mouth running the company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together. After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception. But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else. It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal. Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him. Enough of this stupid FUD. The end.
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Founders Fund actually made sure Shayne can't be fired, according to Bloomberg. Best ad for founders to take money from FF.
Spent 30 minutes in line at Dominique Ansel Bakery in Soho today, running a little Polymarket CEO experiment in my head. If Shayne is really out in the next couple of months. Who is gonna run Polymarket? Why should he be out, you say? The setup is pure cinema: -- Polymarket is now far behind Kalshi, with outages, angry customers, lawsuits, and a fresh CFTC investigation. -- The NFA reportedly threatened to drop them as a client over record-keeping -- Raising at a $21B valuation while weighing an IPO against a token. Best case, Shayne goes exec chair and hands an operator the keys. If I had a board seat, here's who I'd call: 1) @AsiffHirji - Already did this exact job: Coinbase president/COO, scaled it past $1B in revenue. - Ameritrade and HP restructuring on the résumé. - Catch: never the top CEO, no CFTC reps. 2) Heath Tarbert. - Ex-CFTC chair, ex-Citadel Securities CLO, now Circle president (aka the USDC guy). - Best answer to the regulator problem. - Catch: not a product operator, and Circle's CFO is leaving at year-end, so good luck prying him loose. 3) Chris Concannon - Took Bats public, sold it to Cboe. - Runs MarketAxess, which ICE agreed to buy. Basically ICE's dream pick. - Catch: zero crypto If it ever happened: • Hirji = Polymarket grows up without losing the plot • Tarbert = the CFTC problem gets a lot quieter • Concannon = welcome to the ICE Cinematic Universe Soho bakery lines remain undefeated.
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Internet Child retweeted
🚨 BREAKING : Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan caught using COMPANY MONEY for Private Jets flights. Peter Thiel caught him red-handed using his investment money as a personal wallet. Founders Fund, Peter Thiel's fund, discovered that Shayne had charged the following as company expenses : - private jet flights - apartment rent - designer clothes They immediately demanded a FULL REFUND Shayne was forced to reimburse the money. ICE and Founders Fund then teamed up to push for stronger financial controls They were the one that forced Shayne to appoint a COO. You remember Shayne's ChatGPT written tweet gleefully announcing the hiring of Collin McKinney Hill as COO ? I called it extremely suspicious at the time. Turns out i was right, investors basically forced Shayne to hire him as a soft coup. I don't know how long Shayne can stay in place when their main investors have lost confidence.
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You guys are crazy. INSANE engagement on this post: tons of DMs, questions, and takes. So let me break it down. First: I don't have an opinion here. I'm reporting in a way that engages the audience. Successfully. Personally, I don't have a dog in this fight. Does he fly private? I don't care. It's not my money. He doesn't owe anyone an airdrop. It's a private company, and he answers to his shareholders. Period. I've also gotten a lot of DMs about a SoHo penthouse declared as an office, PJ flights to a basketball game with a YouTuber, and other things I won't post publicly because I can't verify them, and I don't want to be the source. Shayne made his investors money, right? So what's the problem? Nobody is hurt! That said, where there's smoke, there's fire. This isn't all a paid campaign. Now, here's what I find genuinely fascinating: this post is a perfect snapshot of how the X bubble works. The replies fall into a few clear groups: 1. VCs with a bag, defending their bag. That's their incentive, right or wrong. They'd be insane to publicly trash a company they want to take public and cash out of. No hard feelings, they're doing their job. You just need to understand it, my friend. 2. The dickriders. They see VCs commenting, ALSO they're currently raising capital or about to, so they "agree" with the VCs. Subtly, but they do. That "I'm not kissing the ring, but I'm on your side" energy. If you're reading this: does it work? 3. People I know for a fact work for Polymarket, disclosed or not. They comment nicely because they want their salary. Which is fine. They need to live; they want nice things. It's a mutual deal. That's capitalism. 4. The airdrop farmers from Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, still commenting "gPOLY" and still believing. Poor souls. Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do. 5. The usual crowd pissed at Poly for whatever reason, adding their two cents. And no, I'm definitely not being paid in cash for this. I'm paid by you, my dear followers: your engagement and your company in this beautiful town square called X (formerly Twitter). Thank you for your attention to this matter.
🚨 BREAKING : Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan caught using COMPANY MONEY for Private Jets flights. Peter Thiel caught him red-handed using his investment money as a personal wallet. Founders Fund, Peter Thiel's fund, discovered that Shayne had charged the following as company expenses : - private jet flights - apartment rent - designer clothes They immediately demanded a FULL REFUND Shayne was forced to reimburse the money. ICE and Founders Fund then teamed up to push for stronger financial controls They were the one that forced Shayne to appoint a COO. You remember Shayne's ChatGPT written tweet gleefully announcing the hiring of Collin McKinney Hill as COO ? I called it extremely suspicious at the time. Turns out i was right, investors basically forced Shayne to hire him as a soft coup. I don't know how long Shayne can stay in place when their main investors have lost confidence.
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Internet Child retweeted
Nobody covers prediction markets quite like we do—so we decided to launch a show to break down the latest drama and alpha in the space. Here’s what’s happening across the prediction market ecosystem right now:
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Republican. Democrat. Conservative. MAGA. Iguana. 🦎 Whoever you are, trade the Midterms with the absolute best UX, lowest fees, and full aggregation across @Polymarket, @Kalshi, @trylimitless , and @HyperliquidX HIP-4 Stop overpaying on spreads. Watch the demo 👇
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🚨 BREAKING : Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan caught using COMPANY MONEY for Private Jets flights. Peter Thiel caught him red-handed using his investment money as a personal wallet. Founders Fund, Peter Thiel's fund, discovered that Shayne had charged the following as company expenses : - private jet flights - apartment rent - designer clothes They immediately demanded a FULL REFUND Shayne was forced to reimburse the money. ICE and Founders Fund then teamed up to push for stronger financial controls They were the one that forced Shayne to appoint a COO. You remember Shayne's ChatGPT written tweet gleefully announcing the hiring of Collin McKinney Hill as COO ? I called it extremely suspicious at the time. Turns out i was right, investors basically forced Shayne to hire him as a soft coup. I don't know how long Shayne can stay in place when their main investors have lost confidence.
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btw @TheFatMbappe called it 2 months ago, respect xitter.cf/TheFatMbappe/status/21…
Hearing whispers from insiders that Blockchain Capital is running a quiet coup to remove Shayne as the CEO. Not a firing. A surround. They already did the same to the Bluesky CEO this year. When Blockchain Capital led Bluesky’s Series A, partner Kinjal Shah took a board seat. By March, founder Jay Graber was quietly transitioned out of the CEO chair into a "Chief Innovation Officer" role and Toni Schneider took over. Same playbook now at Polymarket: Step 1: Blockchain Capital’s Bart Stephens (MP) and Joshua Rivera (GC) officially locked down formal director seats on Polymarket parent Blockratize. -- Board isCaptured ✅ Step 2: Installed CFO Warren Jenson (Audit Chair at Ripple - another BCap portco). The founder no longer has unilateral control over budgets, runway, or capital allocation. -- Balance Sheet Locked Down ✅ Step 3: Installed VP of Ops Collin McKinney Hill (Ray Dalio’s former Chief of Staff at Bridgewater + DoorDash GM). An operator trained specifically in stripping human dependencies and running the company machine without the founder. -- Operations Ring-Fenced ✅ Step 4: Insiders confirm executive 2 recruiters are already actively scouting Shayne's replacement with select growth-stage candidates already receiving confidential outreach. When the announcement drops that Shayne is stepping aside to focus on "product vision," it won’t be an abrupt coup. Good luck @shayne_coplan - I hope you sold enough.
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Retail lost $280M trading on Hyperliquid The 400k wallets trading through 3rd party apps (Phantom, Metamask etc.) are down -$712 each on average. This is the reason Hyperliquid is winning so hard Let me explain 1. RETAIL FLOW ATTRACTS WHALES Whales need dumb counter parties. Trading against other whales is hard and risky. No one wants that. To be consistently profitable, whales want unsophisticated retails making bad bets to trade against. This is called “soft flow” 2. SOFT FLOW CREATES REVENUE -> More soft flow -> more food for whales -> more trading volume -> more fees for Hyperliquid. PerpDex and Prediction Markets will tell you that, contrary to Sports book, they don't trade against their user. It's true in absolute but it doesn't mean that they don't profit from their losses. If there was no losers (retail), whales would eat each other, become unprofitable and ultimately leave the platform. Retail losses are the blood flow of any trading platform. The more money retail loses, the more whales will come to trade and more fees the platform will collect so the whole game is about attracting more losers possible to your platform. 3. HYPERLIQUID HAS THE BEST MODEL FOR ACQUIRING RETAIL HIP-3 and now HIP-4 are build on one founding principle. Permisionless deployment. I.E letting independent builders create markets. Each builder can target a specific retail audience : - sports fans - regional communities - crypto traders - finance bros etc. That's a huge distribution advantage. Whales move between market categories quickly as long as there is retail to trade against, but acquiring retail audience for a new market category is what takes time and work. HIP-4 let independent deployers do that specialized work for their target segment while the platform collects the benefits. That's why they won perps. That's how they will win Prediction Markets
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NO, Polymarket is not losing 45% of it's value. This whole narrative is fake Yes the Ownit sale flopped but it doesn't mean Polymarket is worth <$11B You need to understand how Ownit works to get the difference 1. OwnIt isn't a stock exchange. It's the successor to A2DAO, a crypto investment syndicate offering access to private equity and pre-IPO deals. And here's how it works: - Investors deposit USDC into a funding pool. - Their allocation is recorded in OwnIt's portfolio - Intermediaries handle the underlying equity through SPVs. - When shares are eventually sold, proceeds are distributed back to investors' wallets, minus fees. So no only are you relying on an intermediary (the SPV) but you don't even get tokenized shares of that SPV. All you get is a line in the Ownit database saying that they owe money when (if) they sell at a profit You can't even trade your share since you don't get anything in your wallet 2. The share sold are worth LESS than VC equity. VCs receive preferred shares with liquidation preferences, governance rights and other protections. OwnIt's investors receive indirect exposure with no rights, additional fees and restricted liquidity. So realistically Ownit will never be able to sell at the same price as VCs on top of that there are extra fees : - 2% flat fee - +10% fee on profit above $10k - +10% fee on potential TGE ($POLY) BOTTOM LINE: There is a reason no one was buying this trash even at $11B, and it's mostly not because of Polymarket. The discount is interesting. But these are two very different investments.
Looks like Polymarket investors got SCAMMED > In August they bought $1B at $21B valuation > Now they can't sell even $5k at $11B valuation that's a solid -50% in 48 days and even at that price there are NO buyers. A2DAO, a crypto OTC platform recently listed a sale for Polymarket equity at $11.65B valuation ($112 per share) For the 2 days that the campaign was online only $5k worth were bought out of the $2M proposed for sale. They sale was supposed to last for 20 days but they just removed it from the platform entirely. Ironic. VCs thought they were going to IPO and dump on the public, yet they are the ones that got dumped on
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Internet Child retweeted
Skin-in-the-game is the ultimate moat, but a brutal mass-market social graph. When we built ZEITFinance (prediction vaults where your token = your track record), we ran straight into human nature: people love illusion. Today’s social media works because it lets plebs pretend to be kings. Quantifying risk only benefits the few who already win. Directionally 100% with Se Yong, but for a risk-based social graph to scale, we have to design incentives that make the losing 99% want to play too
in a post-AI world... ur social capital will be worth everything
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