Price Action Lab (@priceactionlab) header
Price Action Lab (@priceactionlab) profile picture

Few on social media have traded through a bear market. I never DM offers. Trading book: https://teapawt.org/t.co/HgXE15ztyJ Novel: https://teapawt.org/t.co/Gvq3H1V3K8

New York, USA
Joined April 2011
Photo by Price Action Lab (@priceactionlab)Photo by Price Action Lab (@priceactionlab)Photo by Price Action Lab (@priceactionlab)Photo by Price Action Lab (@priceactionlab)Photo by Price Action Lab (@priceactionlab)Photo by Price Action Lab (@priceactionlab)Photo by Price Action Lab (@priceactionlab)Photo by Price Action Lab (@priceactionlab)Photo by Price Action Lab (@priceactionlab)Photo by Price Action Lab (@priceactionlab)
Strategy package. #tradingstrategy Link in comments.
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Truly amazing. Fortunately our linux systems were not exposed AND last spring we started to lock everything down and block open traffic. But, I won't smile - sure there are other holes we don't know about yet.
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No #ES_F signal for today due to a velocity filter. In addition to price changes, we also look at the rate of change of price. It's a trade-off, but if you are wrong with futures price action, recovering from losses is much harder than with an unlevered stock portfolio.
An update of all strategies for mean reversion subscribers. There are new signals. #ES_F $SPY $TLT $QQQ $GLD #Tradingsignals
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The only real hedge today was a cushion already in place from the good times. $SPX
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Value stocks have lost as much as AI stocks this week so far, and this is the most bearish signal. $SPX
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BTW, since someone raised the question, I referred to a measure of value in the current regime, not traditional value.
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We have tools for this too.
This is the real trade - correlation exploding under the surface
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🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I'm not even sounding the claxon for this it's just horrible. Any text > 256chars is a valid root password, holy shit sshhole.com/
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As of today, the #NDX is down 15% from its ATH. Looking back at the 19 corrections since 1999, a 15% drawdown has never marked the bottom. Corrections either ended around 13 - 14% or deepened to 20% or more! $NDX $NQ $QQQ
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If a strategy was making +18% before this week, with some risk management, it may finish the year near break-even, but one that was making +8% could be in trouble. Vol will bite both the long and short sides, 2008 vibes again, when I was trading for an HF. I finished the year flat—pure luck.
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👇Mo is the truth.
AI is really wonderful because before only a handful of people could experience the pain and humiliation of building something without distribution. Now millions of people can feel this!
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Investors yesterday and investors today. $SPX
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Yesterday, the $VIX plunged 20%. Today? It surged as much as 65% intraday! A single-day VIX gain of 50%+ is exceptionally rare. Since 1990, it has happened only 10 times: 8 times in the past 20 years and twice in the early 1990s. Historically, betting on a VIX decline after such extreme spikes has worked well. But with such a tiny sample size, take those historical odds with a grain of salt!
At 16.67, the $VIX is down 20% in a single day - a significant move that has occurred only a handful of times over the past decade. I hardly ever base any of my investment or trading decisions on the $VIX (except shorting the VIX after huge spikes), but I thought it would be interesting to see where it stood 5, 10, and 21 trading days after those rare occurrences:
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Part...
*HEDGE FUND WALLEYE TO RETURN PART OF ITS CAPITAL: CLIENT LETTER - BLOOMBERG In other words....they blew up!
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I discussed yesterday's 9% rally in miners $GDX at the same time as a "death-cross" formed and I included historical data of similar patterns in today's post in the blog app. Link in reply.
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The possibility of wars ending has spooked the stock market (or what I mean, but I cannot explain here). 😂 #ES_F
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Price Action Lab retweeted
📺 AI Stocks Are In A Bear Market — But Is That Actually BULLISH? Please ❤️like and 🔁share with fellow growth stock investors @ConnorJBates_ notes that we're still in a mild market correction, but beneath the surface, something very interesting is happening: AI stocks are getting crushed while much of the broader market is showing remarkable strength. * Semiconductors $SMH $SOXX, memory stocks $MU $SNDK, neoclouds $NBIS $IREN, and optical networking companies $AAOI $LITE remain under heavy selling pressure. Our Revere AI 100 dropped another 5.26% on Wednesday after Elections results, highlighting just how brutal this correction has become for AI-related names. * But here's the twist: some of the strongest breakouts are happening in stocks that almost nobody owns! Consumer names, retail, staples, and healthcare continue to outperform. The equal-weight S&P 500 $RSP is showing exceptional relative strength, while the Dow $DIA, mid-caps $MDY, and small-caps $IWM are holding up considerably better than the technology-heavy Nasdaq. This isn't necessarily a market-wide breakdown. It's a massive ROTATION of capital. * And that raises an interesting possibility: what if $RSP starts losing some of its relative strength? That could actually be BULLISH for growth stocks if it signals institutional money rotating back into beaten-down technology and AI names. * The post-election bounce was encouraging, but we're not out of the woods yet. The S&P 500 $SPX / $SPY held the important 7,620 area, never broke 7,500, and reclaimed its 8-day and 21-day moving averages. However, those averages remain in a bearish crossover, and the index is still battling resistance around its 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, $QQQ remains relatively weak. It attempted to reclaim $700 but was rejected, although it continues to hold the critical $686 pivot and its 200-day moving average. Those levels matter. A sustained move above $700 could signal improving momentum, while losing support would increase the risk of another leg lower. * There are encouraging developments elsewhere: The Dow $DIA surged approximately 3% and reclaimed its moving averages. The Russell 2000 $IWM recovered 2,800 and its 50-day moving average. The $VIX dropped sharply, suggesting easing market anxiety. Even within technology sector, hyperscalers like $MSFT and $AMZN showed impressive strength. * Outside equities, $GLD is attempting a wedge breakout, $GDX delivered a constructive close, and $SLV reclaimed its 8-day EMA as precious metals show early signs of bottoming. $IBIT remains one of the better-acting themes, testing its 50-day moving average, while bonds continue recovering $BND $TLT. Treasury yields appear to be forming a bearish flag, potentially setting up another move lower. * With Friday's jobs report approaching and institutions repositioning after the election, the next directional move could be significant. * In summary, AI stocks may be experiencing their own bear market, but the broader market is far healthier than those losses suggest. The question now isn't simply whether AI can recover – it's whether this rotation eventually brings money BACK into growth stocks, potentially fueling the next major rally. Watch the levels. Follow relative strength. Let price confirm the breakout. * Watch this Short video where @ConnorJBates_ breaks it all down in detail 🔽
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Ubuntu is pathing CA certificates. It will be some ride.
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We are probably witnessing the beginning of a regime change in the market, right now. #ES_F #NQ_F
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