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Profits High
Employment High
Buybacks High
Deferrals High
Debt Service Low
Spreads Low
Taxes Low
Valuations High
HH Stock Allocation High(est)
US Stock Weight High(est)
2025 seems like its going to be a fun year, but sometime this Presidential term it will all roll over
808 retweeted
Replying to @NickTimiraos
Spending time to accumulate evidence to ensure timeliness on something you’ve failed to do for 5.5 years. 😂
808 retweeted
Every time I hear "10 sigma" event...
BREAKING: Brazil's -19.8% stock market crash on Monday was one of the rarest market events in the last two decades, according to our analysis.
Brazil's EWZ ETF plunged -19.8% on October 26th, marking an 8.4 standard deviation move.
For context, the ETF's average daily move over the last 20 years has been just +0.04%, with a standard deviation of 2.36%.
Under a normal distribution, the probability of a decline this extreme is approximately 1 in 58 quadrillion.
In other words, this event should be virtually impossible under conventional statistical models.
What just happened in Brazil was *almost* impossible.
808 retweeted
US as a country is incoherent; as a foreign country -- if you are not Israel -- dealing with the US you run into problem either with its President or with its Senate.
its so awesome how EPA is a subagency under DOE in R admins and DOE is a subagency under EPA in D admins
such effective government
reuters.com/legal/litigation…
imagine writing this dude a check
This is what caused Warsh to shift hawkish at Jackson Hole, which in turn set the stage for the unanimous hike on Sep. 16. Now look at where we are now. The crisis in France has flattened the US yield curve. No need for Warsh to be hawkish tomorrow...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
- covered call/collar on index
- Leo/other retail yolo-ing single name calls
- pod l/s all the rage
Replying to @DerivativesDon
The question is “Why is it at 4%ile given universal passive bid?”
The answer is very illuminating.
808 retweeted
I'm really excited that all my recent AI adds are up, but I forgot that that means all my value stocks are down cause that's the way markets work now😢
my dream synth is Moog modular but I bot this bad boy to keep me occupied til that day arrives
youtube.com/shorts/1z19MOb0i…
808 retweeted
People in rich countries are unhappy. In the US they're truly miserable.
Sentiment fell more in the US since 2019 than any other country.
US sentiment at the 0th percentile of pre-COVID history, others generally around 25th percentile.
And our economy doing better than most!
i see why i identify as an independent
honesty, personal responsibility and integrity are in short supply presently in the USA
New Gallup poll asks "which values the country most needs today?"
Out of a list of 12 values, Republicans put "patriotism" #1, for Dems it ranks dead last - by a lot.
Dems say "equality" is most needed, Republicans rank it 11th out of 12.
808 retweeted
В октябре к югу от резиденции Путина на Валдае, в радиусе 50 км от нее, построили еще 16 башен ПВО: всего их уже около 50.
Новые постройки формируют дополнительное кольцо обороны. Радиус кольца составляет 55 км, а среднее расстояние между позициями – около 15 км.
you do not have enough cybersecurity
1) current frontier models are great at exploits
2) they are improving all the time
3) Chinese models are 6 months behind
4) Chinese models are open source
5) open source, cheap hacking agent swarms are right around the corner
good luck
reality meets Airbnb hopes n dreams
There is an exodus of vacation homes within the US housing market right now.
For the last 5 months, for every vacation home purchased, 2 are being sold.
These units are transitioning from vacation assets into primary residence or long term rentals.
The bigger question is what is causing Americans to unload vacation properties at such a high rate?
808 retweeted
AirBNB had its place and time, but it’s over. Had a lovely stay at a Hyatt last night, left trash in the can, towels on the ground, and am confident my corporate overlord isn’t going to light me up with a guest review video. A professional exchange of goods for money. The AirBNB hosts did this to themselves and the platform lost control long ago.
its just bonkers the new policy @airbnb is trying to put in place. Putting the dishes in the dishwasher, taking out the trash, pulling the sheets off the bed....they are just standard things any normal person would do when staying at a house. Why wouldn't a host be allowed to say that?

























