@quant_____

fewer recessions, more regressions / tweets reflect the opinion of you & your institution

 Washington, DC
youtube.com/@_quant
Joined August 2023
  • Tweets6.4K
  • Following1.8K
  • Followers1.3K
344Media
Do I happen to have any mutuals with connections at the FTC?
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“The AI companies didn’t want you to know AI will make your power bill go up…. so they started telling you AI would kill you and everyone you love” (???)
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AI companies are so 4D chess, they went back in time and established subcultures that established thought on x-risk in the 2010s before commercial AI really became a thing
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“Y’all” should not be southern coded. It’s just an objectively useful convention.
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Andrew Gelman has to be the highest variance blogger of all time. That’s all.
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For a long while I wanted to be what some of my heroes are: economics professors, writing insightful papers that push the needle forward on our understanding of the field and how we might choose better policies. I’m not sure this world or such figures will exist as they do now
quant
@quant_____Oct 14
I’m open to the possibility that this is entirely a personal flaw, but I’ll be forthcoming and state that rapid capabilities progress has not been good for my intellectual ambitions. There is little reason to think models will not soon one-shot better essays or papers than I could ever write. Yes, there is still much inherent value in learning, but if this is true, it must be the case that this value is far, far lower than in the past. The implications of some very weak form of AGI, the bar just being that we solve writing and novel research, is a world in which writing (and perhaps speaking) about complex ideas is just so much less valuable than in a world without it. It feels like I will go the way of a horse.
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Also tbc, none of this implies that we must pause AI! (That would also depend many other things, including whether a pause is possible) My own discouragement about my dream being threatened and perhaps me being universally surpassed by the machine, has little bearing on what we should do.
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I’m open to the possibility that this is entirely a personal flaw, but I’ll be forthcoming and state that rapid capabilities progress has not been good for my intellectual ambitions. There is little reason to think models will not soon one-shot better essays or papers than I could ever write. Yes, there is still much inherent value in learning, but if this is true, it must be the case that this value is far, far lower than in the past. The implications of some very weak form of AGI, the bar just being that we solve writing and novel research, is a world in which writing (and perhaps speaking) about complex ideas is just so much less valuable than in a world without it. It feels like I will go the way of a horse.
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Crazy odds given Trump’s recent tweets and the EO
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Lmao
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I honestly have no idea what this means. What would ‘macrofoundations’ be?
Brian Callaci@brian_callaciOct 12
Generally, I think a *social* science should aspire to provide *macro* foundations for individual behavior, not the other way around.
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I think this is the wrong question. Anyone, including mathematicians, can pursue understanding when it’s fruitful, and forgo it when it’s not. The question is whether receiving terse mathematical results from AI that are difficult to work through is, on the whole, a bad thing.
Pontus Rendahl
@pontus_rendahlOct 12
I find this philosophical debate mesmerising. Is “understanding” important for science or should it ”just work”. In the past, understanding was critical in order to make further innovations/stand on the shoulders of giants. But has AI changed that? My own view is that understanding is key. But I also acknowledge that time might prove me wrong.
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Drake Maye is still him
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Yes, econometrics = midwit. On the other hand, it’s very high-minded to assume her whole body of work is a cynical corporate ploy. (Also if you read the tweet it’s obvious it’s not her paper)
egg
@egreghostOct 11
Unironically feels midwit to attack the statistical methods used in the paper instead of taking a scroll of her page and noticing that she is pretty obviously being directed by her institution to justify return to office policies
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Sane econ twitter must return. What are we doing here? “bad instruments are because DEI”💔🥀
Labrador Skeptic
@SaysSimulationOct 11
This is a perfect example of DEI in the wild. Women gets Harvard PhD, Princeton postdoc, NY Fed job. Impeccable credentials - on paper. Writes post demonstrating that she doesn't under the basics of causality & statistics. There's also a very strong urban class component 1/
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The catch is that humanities majors are bad at writing
Matthew Yglesias
@mattyglesiasOct 9
AI cracking unsolvable math problems while being kinda mid at writing is a much-needed W for humanities majors after a rough 21st century.
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You can tell the writing is absolutely awful. Lines written by someone who has absolutely no familiarity with how these people think, and is unbothered by that
Netflix
@netflixOct 8
All in. Every time. Julia Garner and Anthony Boyle star as Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried in this limited series about the love scorned prodigies behind the FTX scandal. The Altruists premieres November 19.
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I have seen a lot of people say this, but apart from the Terrance Tao putting fries in bag meme, I’m not sure what they’re talking about.
mostly harmless graduate student
@rieszspiecesOct 8
i know it's just the internet but it is kind of disconcerting the level of contempt people have towards mathematicians idk
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