Abelardo de la Espriella is the favorite, but the runoff may be closer than the market believes. You cannot simply add the right’s votes together and assume they’ll all support him—the 2022 runoff, which Petro won despite having the same first-round vote share as Cepeda (40%), is a cautionary tale. To win this race, De la Espriella will have to do more than vilify Petro and Cepeda. He will have to convince more moderate Colombians, including many who lean conservative, that he is more than a silver-tongued lawyer who represented drug traffickers and Nicolás Maduro’s alleged bag man. He must also strike a balancing act—embracing Alvaro Uribe’s endorsement without becoming the uribista candidate, given how polarizing the former president is. That will be harder than it sounds. Of the three remaining Latin American elections this year, including Brazil and Peru, I believe Colombia is the most important. Two vastly different candidates, each of whom would have considerable power to implement their agendas, in a country facing huge security, fiscal and economic challenges. Whoever wins this vote will define the course of Colombia for the next 10 to 15 years. Read more REACTIONS to last night, including the great Laura Lizarazo, Ernesto Revilla and @SergioGuzmanE here: americasquarterly.org/articl…