Research + policy @aibm_org, previously swe @draftkings & @polymarket. views expressed are my own. Sporadic tennis opinions and bets.
Joined January 2019
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Isaac retweeted
Additional thoughts.
Cody Brown has 600K followers, says he’s an American data analyst based in New Jersey, and is promoted/sponsored by one of the largest books in the US: @FanDuel.
Here’s what I found, with links to the original documents so you can check them yourself.
1/
I got a lot of tags yesterday on the @CodyBrownBets lotto and collabs. Honest thoughts...
1) @FanDuel partnering with a cartoon internet capper who funnels them new users by marketing only his wins and keeping zero record should be criminal. @RobGronkowski playing along is kind of sad and I love the guy.
2) I don’t care if Cody or any capper hits. If you’re up, track your record. If you’re down, track your record. That is the lowest possible bar to cross and they won't for a reason.
3) If you tail, fade, or bet at all, track your own bets. I fell into this trap. Winning graphics kept showing up and I kept losing money. Even if the capper is winning, if you’re not getting the same odds your record is going to look very different. You won’t know unless you track.
Isaac retweeted
WUT?
DraftKings CEO @jasonDRobins was asked about my @propublica story on problem gambling and online sports betting at the @nextpredictio yesterday. He made some comments that just aren’t true.
🧵Let’s set the record straight:
🔥🔥
I love markets, but there's a bigger world to understand.
I wrote about my mixed feelings on the prediction market boom, why I'm widening my focus, and the rabbit holes I'm excited to explore next.
whirligigbear.substack.com/p…
Isaac retweeted
Claims:
Game detects “ad whales,” then periodically gives them smooth runs until they barely beat their high scores. Right at that point, it kills them deliberately and offers a revive if they watch an ad.
$100 million annually in revenue. Hellish.
Isaac retweeted
The media makes gambling look fun, like a game. I think demystifying it and explaining the risks to teens before they have an opportunity to bet could help. @alexwhitee and I talked about this a couple years ago.
Yesterday on VSIN I said talking to older kids about sports betting is as important as a safe sex talk. Mad respect for @nicole_noren
Isaac retweeted
When even the guy who once worked at Enron says WTF...
Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate-- then were told to lay off. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Isaac retweeted
Alcohol, being disinhibiting, allows people to build trust between and have fun with each other when they wouldn’t be able to do so soberly. It helps to temporarily level status hierarchies and allows more social risk-taking, which is why people often meet future lovers when they’re drinking and drink when building relationships. People can be silly together when drinking, and people who aren’t ever silly are to my mind more prone to collective fanaticism.
There is a time and place for sobriety - work and time with children especially - but alcohol underpins a lot of the social interactions that make trust-based civilization possible.
Incredible job by the @propublica team, this video is so well produced
WATCH HOW WE YEET: The @propublica doc team filmed it all as I deliberately bet like a problem gambler to test the online sports betting industry’s “responsible gaming” guardrails. DraftKings made me a VIP after one week. Watch the action. youtu.be/l8IyGjdY1sg
Always nice to see footage of yourself ugly sleeping after being up until 4am the night before dusting it off
Not the focus of the piece of course but it was wild, at the start of the World Cup @JakePearsonProP was running so hot I contemplated tailing his bets
Isaac retweeted
Soft launching +EV: plusev.tech/. @EV_Fellowship
I think this is *very* important for the world.. Otherwise I'd retire 🫠
Notes:
> It's NOT a venture fund
> The goal is to unblock top ambition/talent, underserved young people with big dreams. Where do small grants/mentorship make a *real* difference?
> Every company and person helping/contributing time, capital, compute credits is (obviously) doing this pro-bono.
> The goal is ambition with social good in *some* way... Meme coin trading apps, etc aren't the target. Again, this isn't a venture fund.
> Literally launching, so be patient if website issues etc
> If you want to help, please email: [email protected]!
> With the rise of AI, most applications for anything get a lot of noise & bullshit... It's easy to spam them! The vast majority of people will be rejected for obvious reasons. If you don't get an interview, you're rejected. The point of this is to cater to the top 1% underserved, young people who *could* change the world but don't have the connections, capital, mentorship. This does *not* cater to the 99%.
> Decisions are made by an independent committee. Harvard iLab mentors, ex/current founders, VCs, etc.
One of my favorite parts of the @TheTradersUnion code is on contract design, with a focus gamified and casino-like products. I hope that @CFTC and operators move to employ some of these recommendations
Casino-style gambling products are not derivatives. Today, the @CFTC is providing clarity regarding the limits of our remit by codifying the exclusion of casino-style gambling products from the “swap” definition just as we have done with respect to other products historically regulated by the states.
Related are the recommendations surrounding product interface, so more standard contracts aren’t able to be manipulated and displayed in such a way so as to appear excessively gamified and casino-like
The full code of model standards for sports event contracts and comparable retail financial products can be found here sportstraders.org/code
Isaac retweeted
-@roundrobin42 joined me on Zero Latency to hurl abuse at everyone, including:
- What EKG’s product rankings get wrong
- His undercover work on DraftKings VIP practices
- Why Kalshi insists on misleading advertising
open.spotify.com/show/7KBNCx…