rubicon59 (@rubicon59) header
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Equities. Sharing sometimes flawed ideas. Looking for low-bars to step over. I prefer no-brainers. Think for yourself. I am not your adviser.

Joined December 2008
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Did the $APP business just improve dramatically two days before earnings?
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Ouch. A 33% 10-yr CAGR?
Carl Icahn held ~45.8M shares of $AAPL at the end of 2015. He sold his entire position in 2016. Had he simply held those shares, they'd be worth $63B today - more than 17x the current market cap of Icahn Enterprises.
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Easy to nitpick this. But I see pretty compelling evidence of $APP’s ecommerce business accelerating rapidly.
Pixel growth accelerated sharply after the Q3 cutoff. Q4 is getting off to an exceptionally strong start 👀
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Balmer turned out to be the ultimate high-performace investor.
在硅谷千亿富豪圈里,微软前任 CEO 史蒂夫·鲍尔默(Steve Ballmer,目前身家超 1200 亿美元)活成了所有投资人最羡慕的样子。 他既不像马斯克那样天天睡在工厂里造火箭,也不像贝索斯那样到处折腾新公司;他从微软退休之后干的最核心一件事,就是死死抱住自己手里那大约 3.33 亿股(约占微软 4%)的微软股票一股不卖。 按照微软最新上调的季度分红标准计算,鲍尔默哪怕一年到头天天在家里睡觉打高尔夫球,微软公司每年光通过股票现金分红(Dividend),就要往他的个人银行账户里自动打入超过 11 亿美元的纯现金! 手里现金多到花不完的老头,干脆掏出 20 亿美元买下NBA洛杉矶快船队,又自己全款掏了 20 亿美元现金(没向市政府要一分钱补贴) 在洛杉矶盖了一座全新的高科技主场。 因为老头平时看球最烦球迷去上厕所排队耽误看比赛,他直接下令在球馆里装了整整 1160 个马桶和小便池(是全美其他NBA球馆平均水平的三倍),保证全场一万八千名观众哪怕中场休息同时去上厕所也不用排队。
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How did he manage to multibag his porfolio without obscure microcaps?
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According to this model, $SPCX Space and Connectivity quickly become rounding errors to SI bisiness.
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Also, no orbital compute in this model?
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And within SI, Grok and Cursor are roundi g errors to Compute? $SPCX
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I did not expect such shitty guidance from $KXIAY. :-(
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I appreciate much better prices from already low valuations on three of my AI favorites - $AVGO, $NVDA, and $SPCX
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$INTC is a big dissapoitment. But while FinX is throwing up all over my feed, I see excellent results where it matters - data center/server and foundry.
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IMHO, the deluded voting machine knows not what its doing selling a top-quality, market-leading $APP business growing >40% at near 10x forward earnings. But we shall see when the weighing machine eventually speaks.
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We shall see what $APP has to say on Nov 4. At these valuations, I keep adding incrementalmy on every large drop.
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$SPCX Terafab is going to shake up the semi fab business because overdue for more cost effective approaches but incumbents aren't able to risk new ways.
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Soon, $SPCX will be deploying $100b capital/quarter at likely very high rates of return. Of course, doomers will doom as it is easy in these kinds of scenarios.
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TBS, these are huge LT combined tailwinds for compute providers and model & AI apps busineses. $NVDA $AVGO $INTC $DRAM $ANT $APP
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Mr. Market is gaga ovenr $ANT’s $6.2m revenue per employee - a historic number! $APP is @ $8.6m, I believe? 👀👀
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With every new gen of AI software each GPU becomes more and more valuable.
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With every new gen of AI hardware each GW of power becomes more and more valuable.
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But…but…@elonmusk told us most of them are stranded?
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