Developing policies to prevent global catastrophe as Cofounder and Director of Policy @globalshieldhq
Canberra
Joined September 2010
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Rumtin retweeted
There's a decent chance the internet ceases to exist as such, at least for a time.
AI-enabled bioweapons are also coming, and there's no "shut down the websites" option for that.
We're approaching the point where frontier AI R&D becomes politically untenable.
Vulnerabilities in a programming language that supports much of the internet are so severe that European and British authorities recommend websites temporarily go offline until they can be fixed. nbcnews.com/tech/security/cr…
Rumtin retweeted
It was great to be back at @dfat this week to present on AI supply chains (from mines to models). I tested ideas from my work on how trade policy should adapt in light of AI, including to help reduce AI risk. This includes an early attempt to... 1/3
Every AI tool depends on a long supply chain: critical minerals, chips, data centres, models. Every link is a potential chokepoint.
This week @devonwhittle, our Australia Director, presented on those chokepoints to the Trade Law and Economic Security Division at @dfat.
AI presents risks beyond those usually associated with trade and supply chains. Expanded access to advanced cyber and biological capabilities greater concentration of power, and loss of control are all on the horizon.
Our work is looking at how trade policy and economic instruments can contribute to dealing with these risks, and help Australia shape its own AI future.
#AI #AusPol
Rumtin retweeted
The greatest geopolitical risk is no longer a single war, disrupted shipping route or economic shock. It is the simultaneous interaction of the multiple crises that amplify one another faster than governments, markets and international institutions can absorb their consequences.
Rumtin retweeted
I think it's plausible that within a year we'll see AI-based cyberattacks on the power grid, financial system, internet infra, or water. Things like the French supermarket cyberattack but worse. As basic prep I would recommend:
Cash: Get a few weeks of spending in cash
Internet: Get a Starlink Mini so that you have Internet if local fiber or cell is down (~$150 plus $10/month in standby mode)
Power, minimal: Enough to run Starlink Mini and phones (~$1,250)
Daily need: about 1 kWh (Starlink Mini 0.7, phones and laptops 0.2; can limit runtime)
Battery: 1 kWh LiFePO4, e.g. EcoFlow DELTA 3 Plus
Solar: 1x400W folding panel, which refills about 1 kWh on a sunny day
Power, better: Enough to run a fridge, Starlink Mini and phones (~$5,000)
Daily need: about 2.5 kWh (fridge 1.5, Starlink Mini 0.7, phones and laptops 0.2)
Battery: 4 kWh LiFePO4, e.g. EcoFlow DELTA Pro 3
Solar: 3x400W folding panels, which refill about 3 kWh/day in sun
Generator: ~2,500W dual-fuel inverter generator; refills battery in a few hours even if weather is bad; get a few 20 lb propane tanks
Water: 14+ gal of water per person for two weeks
Food: 2+ weeks of shelf-stable food
Comms: Hand-crank NOAA emergency radio
Rumtin retweeted
Japan declares cyber space emergency as attacks soar ft.com/content/2d4333d1-8119… via @ft
Rumtin retweeted
Global Shield Australia has made a submission on the Australian Standards for AI.
When something goes wrong with AI, Australians deserve to know.
Our submission sets out a detailed model for mandatory AI incident monitoring and reporting (AIIMR).
How it would work 👇
Rumtin retweeted
"Washington should welcome the division of labor among a wider 'compute coalition.'" Australia should lean into its role in such a coalition, including through effective regulatory frameworks, international agreements, and investment in technologies it requires.
Ever since Trump's landmark decision to sell AI chips to the Middle East, the United States has struggled with a fundamental question:
How should we balance the rewards of exporting compute against the risks of its diversion or transshipment to China?
aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…
Rumtin retweeted
Today, Global Shield Australia's Director @devonwhittle and Associate Maximilian Evans gave evidence to the Joint Select Committee on Artificial Intelligence.
Our message: AI's most serious risks are no longer hypothetical 🧵
Rumtin retweeted
It was great to appear before the Joint Select Committee on AI today, along with the Gradient Institute, to discuss what Australia could be doing to reduce the potential for catastrophic harms from advanced AI. We had great questions and engagement from JSC members. 1/4
Rumtin retweeted
Russia's five-hospital quarantine, FSB involvement, and reported hazmat use in response to the death of a single researcher at a weapons-lineage Irkutsk lab are inconsistent with a lab-acquired plague infection, which would have been treated with prophylactic antibiotics.
1/4
Rumtin retweeted
In the 1990s I worked with Ken Alibek, the former No. 2 in the Soviet biological weapons program, after he defected to the US.
He claimed that they had engineered a strain of plague that was antibiotic-resistant & that they had worked on plague chimeras (fusing 2 or more pathogens).
He specifically called out Irkutsk for being involved in the BW program.
This outbreak is deeply worrisome. This may not be just “the plague.” It may be far worse.
Rumtin retweeted
The world at large underestimates the urgency of action on the AI situation, and it's good to emphasise the urgency. But I think there are big downsides to suggesting we e.g. might not even have 4 months. Firstly, I think it's wrong. Secondly, it effectively rules out most of the interventions and processes that I think have the best chance of actually working.
Rumtin retweeted
AI experts largely agree about which policies would most reduce catastrophic AI risk.
The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP) brings together forecasts from a representative group of over 250 experts that policymakers look to when considering the future of AI: computer scientists, industry figures, top economists, policy experts, and AI risk experts.
We asked panelists to forecast (1) how a menu of policies would affect AI risk; (2) which policies they each support; and (3) which policies they think will be implemented by 2030.
Key findings:
• Despite disagreeing on the level of AI risk, respondents broadly agree on policy
• Respondents believe government policy can substantially reduce catastrophic AI risk
• The most supported policy of those we asked about was the creation of an international body, including the US and China as members, with pre-release authorization power over frontier models
• Some US-only policies are forecast to reduce catastrophic AI risk, but not as much as bilateral policies involving the US and China
• Experts strongly oppose federal preemption and think it would increase AI risk
• The policies experts expect to reduce risk the most are those they think are least likely to actually be implemented
🧵 More, with key insights below:
Rumtin retweeted
Pneumonic Plague cannot become a global pandemic , it is far too lethal, person-to-person spread is inefficient, it is airborne in droplets but not aerosolised.
Distant spread is very unlikely.
We have good prophylactic antibiotics.
🚨Breaking. There's been a pneumonic plague outbreak at a BSL-3 lab in Siberia, Russia.🚨
"Nearly 200 People Under Observation After Irkutsk Lab Worker Dies From Plague" - Moscow Times
This is fact, and also the inciting incident in my book BIOLOGICAL WAR: A SCENARIO, which is unnerving.
Will post more as I learn more, including from Russian speaking sources🧵
shorturl.at/De4kW
Rumtin retweeted
🚨Breaking. There's been a pneumonic plague outbreak at a BSL-3 lab in Siberia, Russia.🚨
"Nearly 200 People Under Observation After Irkutsk Lab Worker Dies From Plague" - Moscow Times
This is fact, and also the inciting incident in my book BIOLOGICAL WAR: A SCENARIO, which is unnerving.
Will post more as I learn more, including from Russian speaking sources🧵
shorturl.at/De4kW
Rumtin retweeted
🌍 Where is the safest place on Earth in a global catastrophe?
A new review of 150+ studies in Global Challenges points to Australia, New Zealand and Japan
The reasons: isolation, food self-sufficiency, good governance and decentralization 🧵
Rumtin retweeted
Interesting new dataset looking at how politicians are talking about AI. Here's one graph from it showing how talk about AI in Australia's Parliament has evolved over time (concern increasing this last quarter obviously).
Rumtin retweeted
Strong words from @MrKRudd on AI and geopolitics: “Do I think this is the largest single geostrategic issue facing the world right now? Absolutely.”
