Sonia Cabral (@soncabral) header
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Art, music, painting, photography, books, travel, sports, football, tennis, economics, data,...

Portugal
Joined June 2009
Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)
Very happy to see it published! The welfare cost of an inflation shock on consumers: who loses the most? | Macroeconomic Dynamics | Cambridge Core - cup.org/3Su61sG via @CambUP_Econ #EconTwitter #economics #inflation #consumers #macroeconomics #portugal #welfare
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Selvagem Grande
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The historic Democratic victory in the midterms is a lifeline for US democracy. It would be a mistake to minimize the importance of Democrats taking control of the House and the Senate and doing so resoundingly. Yet it would also be a huge mistake to fail to recognize that the toughest part starts now. Senator Jon Ossoff stated in his victory speech: “we must acknowledge that the underlying crisis gripping our republic remains and that therefore our most vital work lies ahead.” But even this frank assessment understates the severity of the challenge facing the party. Tuesday’s outcome was an anti-Trump vote. But it was delivered by the same frustrated voters that brought Trump to power and gave both houses to Republicans in 2024 in an anti-Biden vote. If Democrats cannot grapple with the obscene levels of inequality in this country, with the real affordability crisis and with the vexing problem of creating good jobs for Americans of all skills, the pendulum could swing back in 2028. Democrats need a platform that is at once realistic andradical to tackle the tremendous economic challenges for workers. Neither progressive Democrats’ reliance on taxes, transfers and traditional regulations, nor centrists’ attachment to the status quo, nor the wishful thinking of those banking on AI-driven “abundance” is radical enough. The inequality, affordability and jobs problems facing Americans will only get worse in the coming AI economy. Democrats need to articulate new aspirations and a new governing philosophy, as I have argued in my book What Happened to Liberal Democracy. penguinrandomhouse.com/books… These have to be centered on creating well-paid, career-building jobs for all workers, and especially those without a college degree, who have been left behind in the postindustrial economy of the last half century. This agenda must start with a workable plan for redirecting AI, so that this promising technology isn’t shaped by the dreams of a small cadre intent on artificial superintelligence and automation of most of what humans do. We must instead articulate why it is feasible and desirable to build pro-worker AI and how this can create jobs and decent incomes for workers. We must also propose policies to help a new pro-worker AI economy (and some of the elements of such a policy are outlined in this piece: nature.com/articles/d41586-0… more details can be found here: brookings.edu/articles/build…). This effort must be accompanied by a broad enough Democratic tent that recognizes the cultural as well as economic discontent of working-class communities. The worst response to Tuesday’s results would be for Democrats to rest on their laurels. The hard work starts now.
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New paper with @ProkopetsJake and Raymond Kim!! Every scientific paper has TWO teams. One is listed on the title page. The other is invisible: colleagues who challenge ideas, catch mistakes, and help make the research better. Our new paper suggests AI may be making that invisible team smaller.🧵
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What uniform swing looks like - Claude Code graphs of 2024 presidential vote vs. 2026 Senate/House vote totals
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Will the midterms change trade policy? Great opportunity to talk about this tonight @ChicagoCouncil with Financial Times columnist @SoumayaKeynes, @kylascan Kyla Scanlon, and University of Chicago economist @BrentNeiman globalaffairs.org/events/how…
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Porto conquista a primeira vitória!
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Como aplicou uma goleada histórica por 9-1 em casa do Lens 🤯
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Golo, assistência e melhor em campo 💫
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My new NBER WP is up! nber.org/papers/w35975 👉The Global Office: How Globalisation's Frontier is Shifting from Factories to Offices. 1⃣ Portrait of the Global Office side by side with the Global Factory. 2⃣ Five stylised facts: 1) The Office is larger in world GDP but smaller in world trade. Intermediate services exports have grown faster since 2008. 2) All export-linked net job creation since 2008 has been in digitally delivered services (DDS), not manufacturing. Trade-linked DDS jobs pay more. 3) The Global Office is star-shaped with the US as the star; the Global Factory is bloc-shaped, dominated by China. 4) DDSx exports are less sensitive to distance but more sensitive to time zones. 5) Export-led development is shifting to the Office.
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If spending more on schools raises the earnings of the children who benefit, does it eventually make the whole economy richer? My new NBER paper examines this using school-finance reforms. 🧵 nber.org/papers/w35755
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Golo e assistência 🌟
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Super interesting! "Canaries in the Gold Mine: Early Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence Creating Organization Capital" by Tania Babina, Alex He, and Renhao Jiang. "Using a new firm-level measure of AI investment based on AI-skilled employment— spanning machine learning through generative and agentic AI—we show that AI investments are associated with productivity growth in recent years, but not over the previous decade. We trace the productivity gains to the accumulation of organization capital that AI helps create: durable firm-specific knowledge acquired through learning-by-doing that enables more efficient production. We build a novel measure of organization capital based on workers’ job descriptions and document that productivity gains are driven by AI-skilled jobs that build organization capital. Overall, our findings suggest that AI investment generates productivity growth by creating organization capital." conference.nber.org/conf_pap…
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This Election Day, you have the power to change the direction of this country. But nothing’s going to change if you don’t vote. So I want you to reach out to everyone you know. Help your family members make a plan to vote. Drive your neighbors to the polls. Text your friends until they show you their “I Voted” sticker. And if anybody gives you any attitude, tell them Michelle told you to vote! Your community, your state, and our entire country needs every single one of you to cast a ballot on November 3. We’re counting on you!
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Can El Niño influence inflation? sffed.us/4Abnh6I A new Economic Letter explores the economic effects of El Niño and finds the current episode may have temporarily pushed U.S. prices higher this year.
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“(…) os bastardos fascistas não entendem a poesia, e se não entendem a poesia espero que entendam a sentença (…) Mesmo na noite mais triste em tempo de servidão há sempre alguém que resiste há sempre alguém que diz não(…)”
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Desbloqueámos um novo nível de surrealismo: o governo diz que uma sentença sobre o direito de manifestação, que a Constituição dá a todos em linha com a jurisprudência europeia de direitos humanos, só vale para uma cidadã. Felizmente, os portugueses têm mais juízo que o governo.
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O ridículo não mata, mas mói. instagram.com/telmoquadros?o…
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