Compounding capital and real world maxxing in🇨🇭

Switzerland
Joined May 2020
35 years into this game when I look back, most of my work and decisions went nowhere I owe my dream life to a handful of asymmetric bets: - asking out the French exchange student in high school - learning to code in 2009 - dropping out of uni to pursue my startup - going all-in Bitcoin in March 2020 those four decisions shaped most of my life I missed so many opportunities. some that were served up on a silver platter. but that's the beautiful thing about asymmetric bets - you only need one to completely change your trajectory so how often are you actually looking for them? not the default path. not the safest options. the ones with limited downside and massive upside they're often hiding behind exaggerated downside you think they're riskier than they are you fear the judgement of pursuing them, or failing to succeed nobody actually cares though its your life. take swings. the guy who strikes out is still closer to hitting a home run than the heckler in the bleachers time speeds up after 35 years it's made me more ruthless about where I allocate my time and capital. forced me into a barbell strategy for life I'm either squeezing the most I can out of this pre-ASI moment - real world maxxing somewhere beautiful with lovely people- or I'm allocating time/capital to the most asymmetric bets I can find. zero mediocre middle
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The fat guy that gets skinny from Ozempic does not gain aura The fat guy that gets fit from hard work and discipline gains massive aura
Young guns: You cannot mog with shortcuts hammering your face, peptides, etc. all nonsense Mogging comes from true confidence. And true confidence comes from results that were earned. Results that prove to YOU that you are that guy without a shadow of a doubt Women sniff it out immediately Build your body, mind, and bank account in your 20s and you will naturally mog more than you could imagine in your 30s
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Young guns: You cannot mog with shortcuts hammering your face, peptides, etc. all nonsense Mogging comes from true confidence. And true confidence comes from results that were earned. Results that prove to YOU that you are that guy without a shadow of a doubt Women sniff it out immediately Build your body, mind, and bank account in your 20s and you will naturally mog more than you could imagine in your 30s
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It's 2032 You wake up next to your beautiful wife Quick dive into the Aegean before pulling a doppio from the La Marzocco The sun dries the salt water on your skin as you lay on the teak deck You sip your espresso and you ask yourself... How did I get here? What you do today in 2026 determines the answer I always had big dreams. I wanted to provide my family with a top class standard of living. But I never wanted to work in an office. I wanted control over my time. I didn't want a boss. And I wanted to be wealthy while I still had my peak health. Many would call those unrealistic goals And on the default path they definitely are. But by setting those filters I quickly realized that the only way to make that happen was to - own equity in my work (be the founder) - apply maximum leverage (code, posting online, etc.) - focus on multi-bagger investments Ask and ye shall receive Let yourself dream, create a vivid image of the life you want, and then ask if the path you're on gets you there If not, switch to a path that gets you there There's never been a better time to reinvent yourself And there's never been more opportunity for those who seek it Be grateful to past you for all the blessings you enjoy today And be generous to future you by choosing a path that makes your time on this earth memorable I'll be on that yacht 6 years from now. Follow me and we'll do it together. One asymmetric opportunity at a time.
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The sovereign debt bear market continues Since this post: Bitcoin +274% Gold +116% US10Y 3.4% -> 5.3% Some things are obvious before they happen, but they still take a long time to play out. The world has tons of inertia What takes a second for one person to understand, can take years for everyone to understand But like a great man once said... "It's Just math"
The last time we had a long-term bear market in bonds was 1960-1981. Gold went up ~1,800% during that period. Today: Central banks artificially held rates at 0% for years. Countries are in debt to their eyeballs. Might be a good time to stack some hard money gold & #Bitcoin
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Most of the stuff I enjoy daily is made in Europe La Marzocco Porsche 911 Miele appliances Clothes (made in Italy, France, Portugal) Wallet and watch (Switzerland and Italy) Garage door Soap, Dishes, Table, chairs, etc. Skis, sandbags, kettlebells Wine, aperitifs Le Creuset cookware Could go on and on But majority of the stuff I touch throughout my day is made in Europe US designed my phone and computer but they're physically made in China US absolutely dominates on digital innovation and everything screen related Europe dominates on analog living / quality of life / objects with soul
I can’t think of a single European product that I use daily Regulated themselves into irrelevance
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When you pay taxes in Switzerland you see the evidence of how the funds are spent all around you. Quality roads, clean streets, beautiful flowers everywhere... The commons are immaculate It makes paying taxes much less painful And it makes the whole idea of government feel far less extortive than it does in the US The America dot gov initiative is clever because it will make Americans feel like their tax dollars are finally going towards something that benefits them directly Saving them their most precious asset (time) on stuff that is always a huge pain in the ass Replace all DMV workers with Claude and you will reign for 1000 years Actually why stop there... Remind me why we are still doing popularity contests to determine who calls the shots when we have genius level intelligence ready to work 24/7 on behalf of the people? One day politicians will seem as anachronistic as telephone operators seem today 🤞🏼
Impressive. This set of talks, along with the new America dot gov website, has the unmistakable feel of an Apple launch event. They're rebooting the federal government as a tech startup. Several observations. (1) First, with this new AI interface to the entire federal government, if it works as promised, there won't be a single American who can't say their life wasn't helped at least in part by AI, or that the benefits accrued solely to zillionaires. This in itself cannily mitigates anti-datacenter sentiment. (2) Second, Joe Gebbia and Marco Rubio's talks on simplifying name changes and passport filings introduce a completely new era where the US government is actually launching tangible features that benefit users. (3) Third, this launch event in and of itself may visibly drive reform. It could become much more important than the State of the Union. Unlike laws, code is user-visible, and can be instantly audited by the public, as Obama found out with the failed obamacare website launch. So: the annual America dot gov event may be substance, whereas SOTU is traditionally optics. I wouldn't be surprised to see the President present at the next one. (4) Fourth, this kind of event is a perfect example of where tech and red cooperate best. They both hate bureaucracy. Automating paperwork with code reduces the power of statists over both capitalists and nationalists. It's also hard to undo by other admins: once you digitize a process, hard to turn it back to paper. (5) Fifth, it's an obvious point perhaps, but think about how much influence YCombinator has had in 20 years. From Gebbia's Airbnb joining their 2009 batch to a complete overhaul of the user interface of the US bureaucracy, and thus the US government. (6) Sixth, this is another take on the network state. The functional part of the US (the network, meaning tech) is merging with and partially reforming the dysfunctional part (the state, meaning bureaucracy) by automating 20th century paper forms. As a tech startup, there will no doubt be bugs and user issues and so on, but unlike with paper laws those issues will be visible and the code fixes will be verifiable. A new era of AI America. Rooting for them.
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Bitcoin up 42% in the past three months while the US 10 year yield breaks out of a 3 year range. Time to pay attention ✍🏼
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I always wanted to be wealthy But beating melanoma at 25 made me realize that time is its own form of wealth Your time is a deflationary currency that you are spending right now as you scroll. Getting the all-clear from the doctor was a windfall that I've spent with gusto since then You can ALWAYS make more money. But you'll never be this young again. And you never know when a diagnosis could suddenly drain your time account to zero Worst thing you can do is trade finite time for infinite currency without ever doing the things you always wanted to do Living for one day and never today The number on the screen isn't real wealth It's just fuel for spending your time in memorable ways
Age Adjusted Wealth Equivalent, includes quality of life Declines. Age 25 = $500K Age 30 = $2M Age 35 = $5M Age 40 = $20M Anything above 50 years old = doesn't matter really you'd rather be 40 with $40M or 25 with $500K. ***ROUGH MATHS!!!***
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WW3, rate hikes, US10Y 5% Meanwhile some of the fastest growing companies already 20-40% off their highs Bitcoin surging away from the 50 week EMA... Conditions are ripe for a face-melting Uptober Buying. Then pulling a flat white out of the La Marzocco and throwing some sandbags around the garden. Bateau
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It's buy Bitcoin and don't get shaken out for at least 2 years season My favorite time.
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Soaking up September sun under the olive trees after a 5K ski erg and cold plunge while my army of AI super-geniuses works on one of my products Doomers down bad, the future is incredible Harness digital labor in your favor, and spend time enjoying the simple analog pleasures of the real world. Thrive
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Human Intelligence has plummeted in value My brain used to be pretty valuable to me Now I'm like oh you know some stuff? Who cares. You're straight up dumber than ChatGPT Ability to connect with others, human experience/emotion, and enjoying the moment are where the value is now Heart > Brain How much can you feel? World is changing incredibly fast. There's still time to do that thing. But who knows for how long. Do not wait
"Superintelligence is within reach." If this is true, you could have just years to enjoy the world as it currently exists. Soak it in. Do that thing you've always wanted to do. How much did the trench-dwelling soldier of WW1 wish he could relive the halcyon days of pre-war Europe? Do future you a favor and eliminate the biggest regrets you may have. For the first time, humans could become the second most intelligent species on the planet. Creating a superintelligence means handing over our control to something far smarter than ourselves. Just as every other species is here by our good graces... So too will we survive if and only if the superintelligence deems it appropriate. That may sound absurd. But there's nothing that physically prevents it. It's possible, and some even say likely by 2030. And when it arrives, our entire economic system is obsolete. Since it's coming either way (every great power is in a race to make it happen) let's focus on the most optimistic outcome: Billions of brilliant virtual workers will solve the most critical engineering problems we face. They will invent new materials and unlock abundant energy. They will create software that enables general-purpose robots. They'll invent flawless self-driving vehicles to transport materials. Or maybe they will synthesize materials where they're needed instead of transporting them? Robots will eventually self-replicate to create a workforce of billions that are willing to work around the clock at the equivalent of $1 dollar an hour. They will rapidly rewire our electrical grid to support their aims. Or perhaps invent a new form of wireless, distributed energy. With mental work done far cheaper and more brilliantly than any white collar worker, and with billions of cheap laborers doing the physical work... Humans labor as a means of survival will suddenly seem barbaric. Your grandchildren will view human labor the same way we view child labor or slavery. This terrifies many people. "People need work to be happy!" And that's partially true. Many a wealthy person, lottery winner, and retiree has faced an existential crisis after they no longer had to work. But consider children. They find joy just by playing with their friends, staring at clouds, running around, and spending time with family. It isn't until they enter the school system that they begin to base their happiness on climbing a ladder, seeking external praise via grades, and focusing on their relative standing amongst their peers. In other words, we have all been conditioned to seek happiness in the external. But that's merely a byproduct of a world of scarcity where human competition determines access to resources. It's a matter of mindset and personal philosophy. With basic needs covered, the biggest challenge most humans will face will be how to survive the transition without falling into despair and depression. Someone who was conditioned to value themselves based on their work may feel "useless" - but someone who values themselves based on how good of a friend, father, lover, they are could thrive. In terms of investing and business... How will businesses compete with a superintelligence? How will a business maintain profits if everyone has access to nearly unlimited intelligence, labor, etc.? If anyone can tell the magic genie: "make me an e-commerce brand that provides me $10 million per year in post-tax income" And then have a virtual army of workers outperform even the most skilled human entrepreneurs to make that happen... What business has a durable moat in that world? Any profit will be immediately targeted and competed away. Investing in equities becomes a very difficult proposition. Almost everything will be abundant, but there will still be desirable things that are scarce: - Your own time - Waterfront real estate - Access to pristine nature - Bottles of La Tâche Grand cru And finite #Bitcoin To the extent that we still need to store value to determine who has access to those scarce things, the most logical idea is to store it in the scarcest, most predictable monetary asset possible. And for now that is undeniably Bitcoin. Nearly everything else will be increasingly abundant compared to finite Bitcoin. But how will people get Bitcoin? There will still be things that only humans can do. Human touch, in-person conversation, experiences, sports, human entertainment like standup comedy, etc. "Hand made" products could also maintain an appeal for a while because of their relative scarcity and wabi-sabi compared to mass-produced items. The people who still desire rare luxuries, such as a bottle of DRC, will have opportunities to earn Bitcoin. We are already in the early stages of this world. Technology has already given us a level of abundance and wealth that people 100 years ago would have dreamed of. The fiat world is designed to transfer these gains to the money-printing class... But those who have already adopted #Bitcoin as their savings technology have watched their purchasing power and control over their time increase. Anyone can opt into this superior system at anytime. Bitcoin gives you more time. It makes every desirable good more affordable. It makes basics like food seem abundant. In other words, Bitcoin lets you live in the future, today.
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50 week EMA holding as support. Opportunity line in the screaming buy zone. Infinite Bessent Bucks on the way to prop up debt markets "If you don't believe it or don't get it, I don't have the time to try to convince you, sorry."
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Gm Captain. Never forget you're steering your ship whether you know it or not You turn the rudder with your decisions Doesn't mean there won't be icebergs in your chosen path And the Titanic turns slowly at first But you're the captain. Never surrender to mere chance 🫡
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The same system that helped me sell Bitcoin at $110K just printed its fourth ever buy signal. Previous returns after buy signal: Nov 2015 → Dec 2017 +3,650.6% May 2019 → Apr 2021 +706.3% Jun 2023 → Oct 2025 +254.9% August 2026 → ? So how am I thinking about this? Zero FOMO ever. First because opportunity is everywhere. And second, because every previous buy signal eventually revisited the signal price within 11 months. If you bought the buy signal in 2019 you had to watch a 99% gain evaporate AND hold through the March 2020 Covid plunge. So this signal isn't saying "buy now and enjoy up-only price action" It's saying "this should be a very good price within 2 years" You definitely aren't buying a top here. Personally I see a buy signal and the opportunity line deep in the green so I'm redeploying into Bitcoin for the first time since I sold at $110K last year. Not all at once. But a quarter of the cash that I have earmarked for BTC will be deployed into IBIT this week. And if we close a weekly higher high beyond $82.5K I'll deploy some more. What's the thesis? It arrived last week. Scott Bessent made it clear the US Treasury will do whatever it takes to cap long term bond yields. Janet Yellen did something similar in October 2023. She started selling more short term T-Bills instead of long term bonds to keep yields from going up. Bitcoin and Gold went up-only after that moment. And it appears Bessent relit the "debasement trade" last week. Bitcoin and Gold have been taking a breather over the last 8-10 months while everything else has been pumping. Which means they are fairly priced relative to most other assets worth owning. But the way they reacted to Bessent's actions should make everyone pay attention. Rising in tandem with long term bond yields is a sign that the market believes the US will be forced to aggressively intervene in bond markets (i.e. prints loads of money out of thin air to prevent a bond market collapse) They will always come up with clever ways of hiding what they are doing to so the general public doesn't think about it too much But some smart money sniffed it out last week. This post is already too long. But I'll say one last thing. Because FOMO is a harmful emotion and I don't want anyone's judgement to be clouded by it: There are assets that have greatly outperformed BTC over the past 5+ years with fewer soul-crushing downturns. Go look at NVDA, Cameco, Wheaton Precious, etc. Opportunity. Is. Everywhere. The early days of Bitcoin brought absolutely insane returns. And that has turned it into an asset capable of dominating people's attention. It's the only finite digital bearer asset. It's unique. But if it goes where we know it can go if it fulfills its promise ($5 million+) then you probably don't need as much of it as you think. The best place to focus your hopes and dreams is on something that's in your control. Work to make other people's lives better, save some profits in Bitcoin (and gold), invest in the obvious future (AI, robotics, etc.) and your life will be a non-stop bull market. Having said that, good times appear to be here again for hard money folks. So let's have some fun 🫡
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Bitcoin is really battling with the 50 week EMA. For now it's a lower high in a downtrend until proven otherwise. All eyes on the weekly close tomorrow. Come on you bulls. Slay this bear and let's get this party started.
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If you're feeling FOMO or negative emotion about not buying the Bitcoin bottom. Take a step back and realize where we are. We are in deep value territory for Bitcoin based on the most useful long-term BTC metrics. Cycle Index triple-bottomed at 9. Bitcoin has a lot of ground to make up from here.
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Bitcoin is right at the 50 week EMA This is it folks. When this line starts acting like support instead of resistance, that's as great a sign as any that the long term bull is back. Weekly close above these levels will be giga-bullish.
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Green line = Uptrend Pink line = Downtrend If you buy when the line turns green after a long period of pink, you're generally going to have a good time. Keep it simple.
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