This is pure scarcity mindset And it will only attract more scarcity If you're 22 with energy and ambition you need to see $10K as essentially zero. When you get to where you're going, $10K will be couch cushion money You need to be thinking much bigger. Solving problems at scale. Living larger. Best way to turn $10K into millions isn't by pinching pennies, it's by investing it in your own capabilities and mindset. Think abundantly. Money is everywhere. Every dollar you spend comes back to you 10 times over. Scared money don't make money. These are the uncommon thoughts that lead to uncommon results

Yes, I think comparing Nebius with IREN is apples and oranges. They aren't just trying to build extra capacity for hyperscalers. IREN is basically: We have a ton of secured power and can plug in GPUs so Microsoft can run their software on our hardware and fulfill more of their demand. Nebius is: We are the most cost-effective source of tokens for any enterprise that needs world-class AI infrastructure but doesn't want to worry about actually plugging in GPUs, provisioning, scaling up/down, security, access control, etc. They are a full-service cloud solution, and importantly, that gives them more room for margins (which are expanding) There's a lot of engineering that goes into serving the most cost-effective tokens and making the cloud experience user friendly. And that's where they are shining. They are building user-friendly cloud services that a wide range of enterprises can use, and they are ~2-4x cheaper than OpenAI and Anthropic. So imagine you're building AI into your product. If you go with Nebius instead of OpenAI or Anthropic, your compute bill is going to be VASTLY cheaper because they are so focused on inference optimization. Iren is plugging in GPUS. Nebius is delivering the most cost-effective intelligence. Two very different value props.

My head says bear market rally, my heart says up only because how else is anyone going to flee global chaos quantum threat? That's less of an immediate threat than getting my shit across the border ASAP and even if Satoshi's coins are taken... I still own my exact proportion of 21M

Counterpoint: We haven't hit rock bottom on the StackWisely cycle index yet. We didn't go as high as previous cycles either though, so maybe we don't go as low. But normally we spend a little more time in goblin town before really taking off. Either way, no one who DCA'ed in 12th percentile territory in the past is disappointed with their long-term BTC returns. Last cycle that was the ~$20K range. Not the pico-bottom, but not far from the bottom either.

In 2022 I watched millions of dollars of buying power evaporate as Bitcoin plunged to $15K. It hurt. But it taught me an important lesson: If you put too much faith in things that are outside of your control, you're setting yourself up for pain. Sports, politics, financial assets... Humans get wrapped up emotionally in these things. It becomes identity. And that makes it impossible to be objective. The antidote? Focus on things that are in your control. Instead of putting all of your hopes in something that you can't control, put faith in yourself and a higher power. That alone will guide you. You are capable of far more than you think. You have the ability to create value from nothing. All the wealth you could possibly seek is inside you, waiting for you to focus on it and let it out. I've made millions from building businesses and I've made millions from investing. And I can easily say that the money made from creating value is far more satisfying than the money made from moving money around. Once you no longer have to work you realize that you still want to anyway. So if this is the start of a bear market... That means you have an opportunity to detach yourself from the collective madness right now. Emotions are high. And they will draw you in further if you let them. They will deepen their hold on you. Or you can use this as a chance to refocus on what actually matters to you. Refocus on the value that you can bring to the world, however big or small. Rediscover the joy of progress. And when things eventually turn around, you may find that you are too excited about your own thing to even care.

This is why I have been hedging my stack with gold since 2022 It's possible that gold "wins" because it is the only market big enough to absorb bond market capital But watch how bullish everyone gets on Bitcoin if we get some upward momentum. It can easily pull a silver. Besides the unresolved quantum issues... BTC is tailor made for this. We're in a digital world. We need digital money.

They have already cut rates and it didn't bring the long end of the curve down. The Fed can only set the short term rate. They don't directly control the 10 year yield, for example. And unfortunately things like mortgages, business loans, etc. are based on those longer term rates. That's why the Fed cutting rates doesn't necessarily bring down mortgages. The free market sets the long term yields until the Fed caves and just starts buying long bonds to suppress yields directly. OR, they can allow a true recession and hope that it scares enough investors into bonds and brings yields down that way. Problem is that comes with loss of government revenues which only increases deficits and could cause loss of confidence in bonds, therefore increasing yields... In technical terms, it's a clusterfuck.

I think we saw a blow off top in equities and risk assets broadly. The fact that I (traditionally a bitcoin maxi) was trading in and out of equities is a great clue that we were topping. My equity portfolio was literally going up 10-20% a day for weeks. It felt like Bitcoin circa 2017. And now, everyone's investment thesis is literally "NVIDIA beat earnings" Not a great sign. While everyone was waiting for QE, treasury was already pumping the system full of money with enormous deficits. But that comes at a cost. T-Bills are expensive. Government needs to increase deficits just to fund them. Which soaks up liquidity. We also had the longest yield curve inversion in modern history which uninverted at the beginning of this year. Historically that has been a sign of a recession coming ~12 months later. Long term rates are still high. Debt that was taken out at 0% need to refinance at 4% Eventually that matters. Japanese debt market imploding, yen falling, and they want to do more stimulus. A lot of global markets were juiced up by investors borrowing cheaply in Japan and using the borrowed money to buy higher-yielding US and European assets. Tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and AI leading to layoffs. For Bitcoin specifically: Gold has been out-performing as the neutral safe haven since early 2024, and AI equities have been outperforming in the risk bucket. Despite all the bullish headlines since Trump took office, we are below. That becomes a tough sell. And it's an even tougher sell when you have people like Ray Dalio spreading the quantum computing risk narrative. Finally, Trump is losing support. And Bitcoin is now tied to him in many peoples' minds. When I try to think of a bullish catalyst, it comes back to the ability to get your money into Bitcoin and save it without counter-party risk. The banks own the debt. If there's a true debt crisis, banks are at risk. There's not nearly enough money in deposit insurance schemes to actually make depositors whole. Any fear that banks could fail could be enough of a catalyst for people to quickly start wiring their money into BTC for protection. But gold would likely also do well with less downside volatility in the meantime. That's my objective read of everything that's going on right now.

A single Bitcoin will be worth $10 million+ in 20 years. "But how much will a hamburger cost" No. $10 million in today's dollars. Do you know how much better humanity is going to get at making "stuff" in the next 20 years? Intelligence, energy, and kinetic labor will be abundant. The human mind cannot fathom how scarce a single Bitcoin will be relative to the vast amount of stuff that will exist. Go for a hike and really think on this idea. Think about how much more abundant everything is going to be. Consider the rate of technological progress. Think about how much Bitcoin will be gone forever. Lost or locked up for eternity. At a certain point it will click: Being "rich" won't be rare. It will be commonplace. But being truly wealthy will remain scarce. Why? Because wealth is so much more than the ability to buy "stuff." Saving Bitcoin for the future is important. But don't neglect other wealth-building activities in the pursuit of more zeros. Get fit. Build a family. Cultivate peace of mind. Find work that motivates you. Like Bitcoin, these things will remain scarce because they require proof of work. A machine will never do these things for you. Which is why they will forever remain the most valuable things in life.

Agree. But the easiest bet is still BTC because of the money printing required when mass unemployment sends all kinds of debt into default. If Europe gets smart they start charging foreigners BTC to gain entry. Stack Sats, sail the Med. xitter.cf/stackhodler/status/183…

According to Dalio who has studied this extensively: Big Debt Cycles last 80 years on average. Give or take 25 years. Current one started in 1945. 80 years ago.