Stephen Vafier

Been getting a bunch of DMs asking for my thoughts on Lago’s departure from $NU, so I figured I’d share them here. In a vacuum, Lago’s departure is a loss. He’s well-liked and respected internally and by investors alike. He helped take the company public and did an exceptional job articulating and synthesizing Nu’s financial position, operating performance, and long-term strategy. He’ll be missed. If you zoom out, though, the timing of this announcement is undeniably poor. As investors who closely follow the stock know, Nu is already being heavily scrutinized for its U.S. expansion ambitions. At the same time, concerns around Brazilian credit remain front and center, especially after the Q1 credit loss allowance surprise. Lago’s departure directly amplifies both concerns. First, the hiring of a Canadian-American executive who will be based in the U.S. rather than Brazil reinforces the perception that management is doubling down on U.S. expansion—a topic that was already a sensitive point for investors. Second, the more skeptical investor may interpret Lago’s departure as a key executive leaving just ahead of a major credit expansion cycle in Brazil. Fair or not, some will inevitably wonder whether he sees risks to the model that others don’t. Given that backdrop, I’m not surprised the market has treated the news as a negative surprise. The stock market has a funny way of turning momentum into narrative, and narrative into paranoia. What’s the other side of the argument? Nu is clearly gearing up for international expansion, and the asymmetry of the bets it’s making is substantial. Colombia and Mexico already operate with independent finance organizations. Brazil soon will as well. Rob’s appointment appears designed to consolidate and oversee that broader global structure as the company positions itself for its next phase of growth. The opportunity is enormous. If the U.S. strategy works, the U.S. alone could eventually represent another Nu-sized business. If it doesn’t, the downside from these investments appears relatively contained given the scale of the existing franchise. The market’s concern is that management becomes too enamored with global expansion and loses focus on its core markets. With Revolut and others preparing for a similar battle, that concern is understandable. This stock has never been for the faint of heart, and building a meaningful U.S. business could easily take 3–5 years, if Mexico is any guide. But when the downside appears limited and the upside remains significant, it may be worth sticking around.