Amongst the blind the crosseyed can see Not investment advice, may be long or short positions that I discuss.

New York, USA
Joined September 2025
This is a common misconception in the whole “AI bio” hype. There are like 5-6 different worthwhile verticals within the broad study of biology and drug design that AI is accelerating. The CRO / time to market portion likely is along lines of reduced paperwork, streamlined trial design, and basically less bullshit work for biopharma. The interesting part of AI Bio is going to be the 5-10 year gold rush where deep pocketed well funded companies like base camp will spend whatever they have to accumulate data sets to simulate portions of the human biological system. Could be a cell, protein interaction, or some sort of genetic modification. But that’s an open ended problem compute scaling laws likely will solve over time.
The AI hype in biotech is just silly now. So your agent took only 12 hours to design a new drug? Great! Now, you still have to spend 5 years running trials and proving it works in humans without killing anyone. If AI does drug design like it does my stock reseach, there are going to be a lot of dead test subjects.
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Markets today are going to be: Houthis v Musk Oil v GW Korea v USA
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Of everything Elon just said, my take is stuff like $VRT is due for a serious bounce even over compute names. Shells need to get built and they happen first. It’s on Gio to not fuck up the supply chain. Also Lite-On / Delta of course
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Scale - <Everything>
$META'S PROMETHEUS AI SUPERCLUSTER NOW CONNECTS HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF NVIDIA GPUS, WITH 1 MILLION PLANNED Meta has completed the first phase of its gigawatt-scale Prometheus supercluster in Ohio, which was used to train its latest Muse Wonder AI models. The system combines NVIDIA $NVDA GB200 and GB300 NVL72 platforms across multiple interconnected buildings, operating as a single large-scale training system. Meta says it has reduced training interruptions by 99% from their peak, following extensive engineering work with NVIDIA on hardware reliability, networking and firmware. The company reported more than 85% productive training time for Muse Wonder pretraining and over 90% for reinforcement learning. Meta plans to expand the cluster further with NVIDIA's next-generation Vera Rubin systems, continuing its buildout of infrastructure for frontier AI models. Source: Meta Engineering.
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Equities are reflexive on the downside as well as the upside. Who cares if $CRWV signs a new deal when the superset of the problem has nothing to do with inference demand. For these stocks to work, you need to see a new AI use case emerge that’s not just agentic shopping and planning. Coding is solved problem, no one cares that you can make nicer comp sheets in excel, and call centers can’t support 2-3tr of capex. Anthropic employees - if you want the market to let you spend on your research, it’s time to go into cyber security and biology so you can grab new buckets of spend. Then you can keep doing fun experiments.
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+42bps to kick of BLACK MONDAY
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mic check.... everyone is retarded. know which retarded to be at which time, and you usually will make a lot of money.
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flood is arrogant but probably right here. 1. funding still broadly quite positive. people are long. 2. google had additional quantum breakthroughs released this week 3. oai focus on math / cryptographic breakthroughs (see recent crypto-security acquisition) means hard-to-disprove FUD is coming 4. semis will lead crypto flush downward 5. midterms broadly negative for crypto given grift of current adminstration don't really pay attention too much to the space anymore ex-Jeff Yan, but think it's a pretty logical short set up.
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its not "Black Monday" its /black_monday get it right do better.
Calls for a "Black Monday" are spreading rapidly across social media right now. If history is any guide, this means the S&P 500 should hit 8,000 soon. Ignore the noise. Read our analysis below.
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Can tell that a lot of you weren’t around for the crashes of 2022. Luna terra style except this time with chips. Things usually need to look more bleak before they get better.
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realistically equity markets have gotten addicted to cocaine updates like the ant arr numbers are basically equivalents of seeking out new hit of dopamine once expectations get embedded into prices, you lose sensitivity to the new bump. we basically need full reset of 2028/9 expects on gigawatts added if we want semiconductor / power stocks to actually be set up well. cleanse our souls god.
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Ironically It’s most likely VARA this time. From what I’ve heard, Leopold actually flipped short a week ago and has massive put spreads on. Issue is getting out of those is going to be nasty. Not saying market needs to squeeze up but trust me, this time Leopold is completely fine. Don’t spread FUD.
What are the odds. Leopold runs 4x leverage into the worst growth drawdown in history. Proceeds to get margin called into selling his entire book to Citadel at the bottom, reportedly reloads with options, and then catches ANOTHER historic growth drawdown. Some of the worst timing I have ever witnessed.
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Heavy positioning into black Monday.
For what it’s worth - This sort of miss, even if small, can tilt credit markets to really preclude the ability to fund more speculative capex. I remain bullish on AI but when the set up is so aggressive these fragile systems can break in non obvious ways.
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check semiconductor prices on hyperliquid over the weekend. real money getting out then they’ll tell you they said it a month ago. follow the money
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Likely need another puke from here to get people out of their semis positions. Selling still feels heavy in absence of new information… More interested in how the Houthis are going to jack oil prices this weekend and bleed semis guys dry.
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Imagine You had sold semis in June Bought 10x genomics in march Correctly degrossed post Leopold And are up 150% Net
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conspiracy theory making the rounds in my circles right now: @elonmusk is in trump's ear trying to derail anthropic IPO so spacexai can get better access to compute. trump already can't stand dario, probably does not want to see EA's have major liquidity event, and so is not going to try to pump the ecosystem so the slack can be absorbed by elon and co early in 2027. look at the way elon has been tweeting RE memory prices and neoclouds. in this case, do not look to trump admin to "bail out" your semiconductor longs.
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the silence of the usual pumpers (@GavinSBaker , @dylan522p , @altcap) tells you all you need to know about who is selling and who is buying today.
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TMT managers will chase the downstream beneficiaries of AI as they rotate out of the Capex beneficiaries $IOT $AXON $NTRA $GH $LLY
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