Tony Cani retweeted
Anyone claiming early voting trends are pointing to a particular outcome is probably:
1. An election denier setting the stage for another round of some b.s. stolen election narrative.
2. An operative working for or against a candidate.
Stay the course. Vote.
People love @chilis too. We just don’t want the White House looking like one.
Heap probably has another vacation planned and his chief of staff apparently has another taxpayer funded job to focus on.
Another person raising flags about day to day comparisons to previous cycle returns by vote methodology. Voter behavior is way too in flux to draw conclusions.
I wonder what state Elon Musk lives in.
JoAnna Mendoza boasts about raising millions, but here is the reality: her donors are just like her endorsers… they can’t even vote for her.
Mendoza is running a fabricated campaign, fueled by out-of-state interests, not Arizona priorities.
California and New York don’t speak for AZ06. Arizonans do. And I’ll never stop fighting for the people I actually represent.
Is the campaign saying the ad is referring to Acton lying about whether she brushed her teeth before bed? Whether she ate the last cookie?
Dr. Acton was 12! the last time her mom saw her & it was in a courtroom after Acton’s stepdad was charged with rape.
To be clear, they rolled out her mom to validate claims Acton is a compulsive liar. Her mom does so in the ad by saying "she's lied HER ENTIRE LIFE."
What else could that refer to other than Acton reporting her abuse?
I think @MatthewGress will see this and say “great job Heap!!”
Tony Cani retweeted
@MerissaCaldwell is filing CFR transaction memos showing she's spending some of the money @NortonforAZ and @TPAction gave to spend on behalf of the "problematic" Green Party nominee for Governor.
It’s hard to tell when he’s tweeting BS to reassure donors they haven’t wasted their money vs. when his tweets are just stuff he’s repeating in his head over and over, starting to spill out to the public.
I don’t know a single Dem upset with how things are going.
Which says a lot since Dems are panic prone while watching results come in.
I actually believe this. Trump probably hates it when anyone else enriches themselves by selling access to the government. He expects his family to have a monopoly on that type of corruption.
Tony Cani retweeted
I have greatly enjoyed watching America feel the same things I have felt about Vivek Ramaswamy since the fall of 2003
Tony Cani retweeted
In case you heard otherwise, here’s a reminder:
Can’t blame the office for not responding. I mean maybe @azjustinheap is out of town on another vacation instead of doing his job. And ive been told his chief @SamThePol has at least one other tax payer funded contract/job other than this one, so maybe Sam was out doing that.
Tony Cani retweeted
I've tracked more than a dozen polls of the Arizona gubernatorial race over the last few months, along with the party splits in each one.
I've also said before that comparing early ballot returns strictly to 2022, without context, is problematic. Republicans were told not to vote early that year, so the early vote was structured differently than it is now.
So here's what early ballots look like if the polling is close to accurate:
Polling party split average:
🔴 Republican 38
🔵 Democrat 32
🟡 Other 30
Early returns from @StealthPolling, Oct 20:
🔴 Republican 37.8 (-0.2)
🔵 Democrat 39.7 (+7.7)
🟡 Other 22.4 (-7.6)
#AZGov polling average:
🔵 Hobbs 48
🔴 Biggs 42
🟡 Other and undecided 10
Margin: Hobbs +6
Reweighted to the early return mix:
🔵 Hobbs 51 (+3)
🔴 Biggs 40 (-2)
🟡 Other and undecided 9 (-1)
Margin: Hobbs +11
That's not a prediction. Republicans are still returning ballots and the mix will keep changing. It's an estimated yardstick, based on polling, for when early votes get counted.
Tony Cani retweeted
Wow @tcani. A lot of information here. Bottom line: chase those votes and don't stop Democrats until Nov 3 7:00 pm. We need every Democrat to vote. Tell your neighbors, friends, and colleagues to vote NOW.
Sign up for a GOTV shift in #LD4.
#VoteEarly
#LD4
I keep saying you can’t comp day by day EV returns in AZ to 2022 due to behavior of when voters cast ballots being too in flex. Now I have some proof.
The big GOP gains some keep posting about as a sign there is no az blue wave can entirely be accounted for by voters who were gonna vote casting their ballot earlier than they did in 22.
Sam Almy from @UpliftTweets chased a hunch first floated to me by @jarwoodaz and look at the numbers:
Many GOP 22 Late Earlies & EDay voters are off the board as behavior gets closer to how it was in 2018 before the radical timing shift that happened in 2020.
So in other words their gains now are at the expense of voters their day by day comparisons imply will be in late vote or EDay tallies.
But credit where credit is due, this is likely due to the messaging and organizing efforts of GOP candidates and allies putting aside their vote by mail conspiracies and telling their people to vote early like they used to.
So to be clear about what I mean here: the good news for Dems is any claims this is some turnout surge is not really true as of now.
The bad news for Dems is the organizing efforts many mock by TPUSA & AZ Republicans seems to be reverting voter behavior back to how it was before 2020.
This helps them because unlike in 22 when they made people wait to vote, their election week gotv universe will be smaller and they will be able to focus on lower efficacy voters that need the bump.
This is why dem and dem candidates need to double down on ballot chase and tell all their good little d voters to not do what they always used to do and wait to get their ballots in and to vote NOW. A thing which I understand is a little challenging as fear Trumps USPS will lose their vote is pretty high. But get over it or go to a drop box. NOW.
But my larger point: “on this day in 22 the lead was x and now it is z!” is a problematic comp.
