Black Swan Cattle Co.

GM discounting 2026 sierras with the 3.0 diesel but not the Yukon so kind of makes it a glaring $25-30k difference for what is the same platform same trim level.

Impact ready for the Fall breeding season. After summer use on heifers. He’s a top 2% DMI top 5% heifer pregnancy top 15% herdbuilder. maternal maker. A mushrush impact son.

Sun is out and no rain in forecast. 🙏

Doing some sell buy math this morning. If I can sell my November fat cattle for say $218. If. That would give me $2834 on a 1300# hfr. I’d want to buy back 500# hfrs for $1100/hd less than my sale or around $1685-1700/hd for the buy back. Keep swapping when market is changing.

Came off the mountain today

Wet bag red angus ettes in Torrington $3260/hd. People want to make cows and are making cows.

Fortunately and unfortunately I have a lot of fat cattle to sell in November. It will generate a swap into calves and maybe feeding cows but I missed the good ol days of mid October fat cattle lol.

I positioned for a $40-50 move in feeders either direction. There’s $20 of it in one bite.

Yes I can be quite bearish on feeders and still want to buy calves. The gross margin is what drives me to buy any given class.

Ran some analysis this morning. Largest drop in cutter cow plant delivered prices since Fall of 2015. That was a 37% drop from high to low. So far we are tracking a 23% drop using my weekly data series. 2025 was incredibly small Fall decline at 8%, 2024 at 15%.

Regarding analogs seems less and less likely this is early November 2024 in feeder cattle. That was one of the analogs but not my favored one.

The must own risk assets crowd from 6 weeks ago may have wished they owned something a little different. Like bonds and tips. Balance is good.

Also. If there are so few cows and that really matters why did the cow market get blown up. Was it really just trump pushing the lever on imports.

If I had a dry place to put a calf I’d sure be laying into these heifer calves. 🤷🙈

No old timer has ever seen a Fall like this. Came in and flooded us again last night. Water across the road and dry creek a running.