An American fantasy/horror writer in Germany. I talk about metals, energy, current events but am not an expert. The only advice I'll ever offer is on writing.
Joined January 2021
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Energy, metals, and tech are all in the toilet today. It's cause a lot of dollar strength, which is in turn pushing the euro below several key resistances.
Hard to see many tail winds for europe at the rate their winter reserves are dropping.
Here is German winter gas levels for the last 5 years, and why the pace of outflows concerns me. At current pace (red) we don't get close to coming out at the March 2025 lows.
Even improving it a little won't get us there. Things have to get a LOT better, and soon.
Down 40% in 40 days, and you can barely see it on the long term chart. That's how high $NVDA soared.
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Knife catchers out in force on $NVDA the last few days, too. Dip buying has become Pavlovian, even as momentum gets worse.
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It took Germany 31 days in October to stash away ~4% of its winter reserves, and it used them up in the first 11 days of November. I don't like how the slope is getting steeper as it goes.
The #dollar broke its wedge to the upside. It will fall, post oil crisis, but for now I'm more interested in the gold disconnect. The dollar has been going up since 2008, but it broke its long-standing relationship with the yellow metal then too. Why?
Rotterdam didn't react much to news about increasing German coal use, but I notice it bounced off its trendline again, and it's long term momentum is about to go green. I wonder when that will matter to $CNR.
EscapeFromUtopia retweeted
Worth paying close attention to this. The Chinese are not manipulating energy prices like Western countries. This may be a good proxy for what the actual inflationary pressures are going to look like. It's already half way to the 2021-22 shock. 🇨🇳
BREAKING: China’s PPI inflation rose +5.7% YoY in October, its largest YoY increase since June 2022.
This also marks its 3rd consecutive monthly acceleration.
By comparison, PPI stood at -3.6% in both June and July 2025.
The surge was driven by higher energy and non-ferrous metal prices, alongside growing demand for AI-related hardware, pushing factory costs higher.
Meanwhile, producer purchasing prices, which measure what factories pay for raw materials, energy and other production inputs, jumped +7.9% YoY, the largest increase since June 2022.
Inflation is back in China.
#TTF appears to be bottoming. I was hoping it would go a bit lower because of how insane that would be, but the market sees the same numbers I do in Europe. The market is still firmly of the belief that everything gets back to normal in the spring, which seems crazy to me.
#Silver continues to show strength (with wild oscilations). Daily momentum hasn't translated into a weekly momentum bottom yet, but i think it's coming, and the RSI bottom looks quite clean. That said it's still losing money almost continously to say... NVDA.
The #euro has these large jagged bottoms where it consolidates for a month or two before a big move. The pattern would say a move upward is coming, but I think a breakdown based on gas and maybe even fed hikes is more likely.
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#Tin lacks granular data back to the 80s, but one can extrapolate based on available data. Seems like its about to correct now, but I think scarcity of new mine supply will keep it above 40k for the forseeable future. 100k in 15ish years's isn't unreasonable.
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TTF is showing signs of bottoming. Daily RSI is about where it's been on most previous bottoms during this bull run. It could go down to 75 if we get a June repeat, but I think there's too much fear for that with how storage levels are falling.
Germany has burned through 2.8% of its reserves in the first 12 days of draw season. At pace it might reach the 50% mark by the end of the month.
It normally ends the month with 65-99%.
If you look really closely on the right hand side you can see the freefall has slowed by a little bit. If you look at the left hand side, though, you can see it shouldn't have started for another month. (365 days of data)
I don't want to get everyone too excited about #silver, but you see that little highlight? That's the first day of positive momentum since August 28th. Things are looking up.
A few more of those and we can get the weekly to go green too. That would be exciting.
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TTF/JKM can fall more before it goes to oversold on the daily/weekly levels. I know we aren't at the bottom yet, because no one has dropped by to let me know how stupid I am for not selling the top.
It's just crazy to me that this crash is happening while reserves bleed so hard.
On a long enough timeline, gold miners go to zero priced in gold. I can't decide if that's funny or not.
