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Some reflections on the collapse of Zapata and the role of debt, lock-ups, and Sabine Hossenfelder.
open.substack.com/pub/waxedm…
Another misrepresentation from @NiccoloDeMasi. A speedup relative to a previous implementation of a quantum algorithm is not the same thing as a speedup relative to state-of-the-art classical methods.
$IONQ
IonQ CEO, Niccolo de Masi, was on @CNBCWEX this morning:
"We also announced on Monday this past week a partnership with Nvidia, AstraZeneca, and Amazon AWS. And in that partnership, we talked about 20x speedup in the workflow for computational drug design.
And 20x speedup is very real. That's turning months of work into days."
A very rough comparison of some public roadmaps for error-corrected quantum processors. The RSA-2048 region is based on the recent paper from @CraigGidney. Note that there's a number of assumptions here, and that operation speed is not shown.
I have a certain respect for retail investors who talk up quantum stocks. They are putting their own money on the line. They have skin in the game.
Executives, consultants, commentators, and journalists on the other hand generally don't bear the costs of their mistakes.
Niccolo de Masi has been telling investors that the next IonQ system will be hundreds of millions of times more powerful than the current system.
This is a Theranos-level misrepresentation. Hilbert space dimensionality and computational power are two different things.
Another example.
“If you see fraud and do not say fraud, you are a fraud.” -@nntaleb
Max Radin retweeted
I'm often asked if I'll redo the 2019 quantum factoring estimate. Denser storage by yokes, smaller magic factories by cultivation, slimmer approx arithmetic by Chevignard et al… surely the cost is lower now?
Yes, it's lower now.
security.googleblog.com/2025…
arxiv.org/abs/2505.15917
Sadly, Zapata has collapsed to the vacuum state and will be shutting down. It's been a pleasure working with everyone on the team.
sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edg…
The group elements are E, C2(x), C2(y), and C2(z) = C2(x) C2(y). The video shows that these operations permute four different cat positions. (Head can be at the near or far side, and body curled to left or right.) This means a cat is a four-dimensional representation of D2.
Imagine performing σ(xy) = C2(x) σ(xz). For the unglued cat, this leaves all of the four positions unchanged. So there are still only four positions, and the character for σ(xy) is four. Looking at the character table for D2h tells us that we must have Ag + B1g + B2u + B3u!













