S. Nicolas retweeted
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.
Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.
So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.
If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.
This should set off alarms inside the Hatfield-Dowlin Complex.
Before Oregon becomes last year’s version of Penn State, we need to have an honest conversation about what’s going wrong and, more importantly, what can actually be done about it while there is still time to save the season.
The offensive issues are the most alarming. As reported by @DuckSports, Oklahoma State senior linebacker Tate Romney said after the game that their defense noticed during the week that Oregon’s offensive line had stance tendencies that helped them identify run versus pass before the snap.
That should sound eerily familiar to Oregon fans. After Indiana beat Oregon last season, multiple Indiana players told Yahoo Sports they were able to identify what Oregon was likely running based on formations, alignments and how players were positioned before the snap. Now Oklahoma State players are saying something very similar.
At some point, this stops feeling like coincidence.
And before somebody replies with, “Everybody knows tendencies” or “Defenses always have an idea what’s coming,” that’s not really the point here. These players are talking after the game about Oregon giving them useful information before the ball is even snapped. They aren’t just saying they guessed right a few times. They’re basically bragging about how Oregon helped them diagnose what was coming.
Meanwhile, Oregon fans are sitting there watching a roster with superior talent get dog walked and wondering how the hell this keeps happening. Again, and again, and again.
Teams don’t need Oregon’s entire playbook. If a linebacker can look at an offensive lineman’s stance and increase his confidence that a run or pass is coming, Oregon has already given him an advantage before the play starts. That is a self-scouting and preparation problem.
How does Oklahoma State find that on Oregon’s film during the week and Oregon not correct it before Saturday?
That question deserves a real answer. At the next press conference, Oregon's beat writers and media shouldn't let Lanning off the hook here. Ask the question and press for an actual answer. @AaronJFentress @johncanzanobft
Drew Mehringer’s previous Power Five play-calling experience also deserves to be part of the conversation. His only previous season as a Power Five offensive coordinator came at Rutgers in 2016. Rutgers finished 128th out of 128 teams nationally in total offense, 127th in scoring, 122nd in passing and was shut out four times.
He was 28 years old. That matters, and I don’t think it’s fair to pretend a coach can’t improve dramatically over ten years. People get better at their jobs, and the Rutgers roster was obviously nothing like the roster Oregon has today.
But Oregon also isn’t a program that should need two or three seasons to find out whether someone has developed into a championship-level play caller. This roster is ready now.
That doesn’t mean I think Dan Lanning should panic and fire both coordinators three games into the season. There is a massive amount of room between firing everybody and simply hoping the problems fix themselves.
Oregon replaced both lead coordinators this offseason with internal promotions. Drew Mehringer and Chris Hampton were already important members of Lanning’s staff, and Lanning obviously knows both of them far better than any of us do. There were reasons he trusted them with these jobs.
But replacing Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi at the same time was still a major gamble for a team that expects to compete for a national championship immediately. Being a good position coach or co-coordinator is not the same thing as being responsible for the weekly game plan, identifying your own tendencies, anticipating what an opponent is going to attack, making adjustments and calling a game under pressure.
The defensive side is a little different, and I don’t think Hampton and Mehringer should just be thrown into the same bucket. Hampton has legitimate coordinator success on his resume, including what he did at Tulane.
Still, Oklahoma State just put up 554 yards. Oregon has spent years assembling one of the most talented defensive rosters in college football. When a roster like that looks confused, gets hurt repeatedly by the same concepts or struggles to adjust, that deserves serious scrutiny too. And because defense is Dan Lanning’s background, that responsibility doesn’t stop with Hampton.
I’m also not pretending I can diagnose every busted coverage or front adjustment from my couch. That’s actually part of why I think the solution here is pretty straightforward.
Go add experience right now.
Not a new offense. Not a new defense. Not some panic move where half the staff is fired on Monday morning.
Bring in experienced coaches who can immediately help with self-scouting, tendencies, game planning and in-game adjustments. Give Mehringer and Hampton another set of eyes from somebody who has already done these jobs at the highest levels. If those veterans eventually need to take on more responsibility, then Lanning can make that decision after they’re actually inside the building and understand what Oregon is doing.
There’s recent precedent for this. Nebraska brought Dana Holgorsen into the program during the 2024 season. Within days he was deeply involved in the offense, and shortly after that he took over play-calling duties. Nebraska didn’t have to throw away its entire offense or fire everyone involved to make it happen.
Oregon can do something similar.
The NCAA rules aren’t really the obstacle here either. Oregon would need to formally bring the person onto the institutional staff, but once that’s done, that coach can provide technical and tactical instruction. This isn’t a situation where Oregon has to wait until December because some rule says an outside coach can’t join the staff in September.
The more interesting part is how quickly something like this could actually be executed, and this is where the agent side of college football matters a lot.
Dan Lanning is represented by Jimmy Sexton and CAA. Jimbo Fisher is also a Jimmy Sexton client. Gus Malzahn has been represented by Sexton. Hugh Freeze has too.
So if Lanning and Rob Mullens decide they want to know whether Jimbo Fisher would consider coming to Eugene for three months to help stabilize the offense, this does not require Oregon to launch some three-week national search.
Lanning can call his own representation. Sexton can call another one of his clients. Oregon can probably know within hours whether there is any interest.
That’s literally part of what these agents do. They quietly figure out whether an opportunity makes sense before anything becomes public.
There are similar connections elsewhere. Brian Kelly and Justin Wilcox have both been represented through Athletes First, Kelly through Trace Armstrong and Wilcox through David Dunn. The coaching world is incredibly connected. Oregon doesn’t need to send out a job posting and wait for resumes.
They can call the agent and ask a very simple question: would your client consider this if the role and money were right?
If the answer is no, move on. If it’s yes, start working.
That’s why I don’t think this necessarily takes weeks. If Oregon decided today that it wanted to add veteran help, there is a realistic path to having somebody in Eugene within three or four days.
The first day is figuring out who you want and whether that coach is interested. The second day is working through compensation, responsibilities, contract length and authority. Then legal, HR and compliance get the person formally brought onto the staff. By the third or fourth day, that coach could realistically be inside the Hatfield-Dowlin Complex watching film, sitting in meetings and attacking Oregon’s self-scout.
That doesn’t mean Jimbo Fisher walks into Eugene on Wednesday and installs his offense by Saturday. Obviously that would be ridiculous.
The entire point is that you don’t install his offense.
You keep Oregon’s terminology, Oregon’s protections and the concepts Dante Moore already knows. Then you bring in somebody who has spent decades solving offensive problems and let him look at the offense the way an opposing defensive coordinator would.
What are we tipping? Which formations have become predictable? What are defenses keying on? Are the offensive line stances giving away run or pass? Are there protection tells? What concepts fit Dante best? What are we calling too often? What aren’t we calling enough? What are defenses consistently doing to us on third down, and why aren’t our answers against pressure working?
That kind of experience can provide value almost immediately without changing the offense.
From there, Lanning decides how much responsibility that coach earns. Maybe he stays in a senior advisory role and helps Mehringer with the weekly plan. Maybe he gets heavily involved with situational football and halftime adjustments. Maybe things still don’t improve and eventually Lanning decides somebody else should call the plays.
You don’t have to answer all of those questions before the guy even gets on a plane. The first objective is getting another experienced football brain into the room and attacking the problems that are already showing up on film.
Jimbo Fisher would be my first offensive phone call. Brian Kelly would absolutely be another. Mike Gundy deserves a call too, and if Gus Malzahn would even consider coming out of retirement for a three-month sprint, I’d call him as well.
Maybe every one of them says no. Fine.
Make them say no.
On defense, Justin Wilcox feels almost too obvious not to call. He’s a former Oregon defensive back, an Oregon graduate and an Oregon native. He has been a defensive coordinator at Boise State, Tennessee, Washington, USC and Wisconsin, then spent nine years running a Power conference program at Cal.
He understands college football. He understands defense. He understands Oregon. And he’s currently available.
If Wilcox isn’t interested, then keep working down the list. Steve Wilks and Mike Zimmer are both worth serious conversations.
And yes, I’d make the crazy calls too. Sean McDermott. Mike Tomlin.
Are those likely? Of course not. But if Oregon can offer a short-term role, essentially no recruiting burden, a talented roster, a chance to work with Dan Lanning and a serious amount of money for a three-month commitment, there is zero downside to asking the question.
Make them tell you no.
Oregon has spent years building advantages other programs simply cannot match. Facilities, NIL, recruiting infrastructure, personnel departments, analytics, sports science, nutrition, money, whatever edge they can find.
If Oregon genuinely believes this roster can win a national championship, then coaching experience should be treated exactly the same way.
And Portland State being next actually makes the timing about as good as it could possibly be. You aren’t asking a new coach to walk in Tuesday and prepare Oregon for Ohio State four days later. Bring somebody in now. Let him learn the language. Let him watch film. Let him challenge assumptions and look for things the people who have been inside the same system for years may not notice anymore.
None of this has to embarrass Mehringer or Hampton either.
You can frame it as exactly what it is: giving two young coordinators every possible resource to succeed.
If they grow into the jobs and Oregon takes off, great. If it becomes obvious that one of them needs help with play calling or game planning, Oregon already has an experienced alternative inside the building.
Either outcome is better than waiting until November to decide September was trying to tell you something.
My biggest fear is that Oregon beats the hell out of Portland State and everybody convinces themselves Oklahoma State was just some bizarre one-off. The next scoreboard does not erase what Oklahoma State found on film. It doesn’t erase what Indiana players said last season either.
At some point, you have to listen when opponents keep telling you the same thing.
Dan Lanning has built this program by being aggressive. Aggressive recruiting. Aggressive portal evaluations. Aggressive NIL. Aggressive fourth-down decisions. Aggressive investment anywhere Oregon can find an advantage.
This is not the moment to suddenly become passive.
There is too much talent on this roster and too much invested in this season to look back in November and realize the warning signs were staring everybody in the face in September.
Oregon doesn’t need to blow up its coaching staff. It needs to honestly evaluate where experience may be missing and go get it.
The rules allow it. The coaches are out there. The money is there. The agent relationships are already there.
And if Oregon decides today that it wants veteran help, there is a very realistic path to having that person inside the Hatfield-Dowlin Complex within a matter of days.
So make the calls.
Huge win for the community
After 12 years of being focused on just reviews, we're adding a second product: @judgeme Email.
Priced super low: 0-15 USD / month for features, 15K emails per month for free, then 15 cents per 1000 emails.
That's 10x cheaper than the competition. Even compared to Shopify's own Email app, we're 85% cheaper.
The product is in early stages, but we're adding features constantly. The price will never go up as we add value, as we optimize for market share, not profit.
After you install the app, you'll be able to request a call with our team to go over your email marketing needs and your setup.
Very excited to have this app live, and if you're a Shopify merchant, hope to see you soon!
apps.shopify.com/judgeme-ema…
S. Nicolas retweeted
3 months ago, I sold my 1st company, Skio, for $105M cash.
Now my 2nd company, Icon, just raised $30M to launch something the world has never seen.
For $1000, we make 6 human creator ads (no AI, 100% real).
We find creators, ship products, write scripts, & edit videos.
It's risk-free:
- Full refund if you don't love your ads.
- You don't pay until you review 6 scripts.
- Unlimited human revisions.
Today, Icon introduces the world's first Agency.
We're not building a normal agency:
- We bought a $12M domain.
- We're backed by Founders Fund and OpenAI + Google DeepMind leaders.
It’s impossible to hire a creative team like ours for even $30K/mo:
- Creative Directors who've worked with $100M brands (IM8, Obvi, Ridge). They update our format library daily based on winning ads (street interviews, skits, & 20+ more).
- 12+ scriptwriters with $80M in Meta adspend.
- 200+ in-house editors who've edited 100K ads.
One more thing...
We're giving away our internal Google Drive with 1000 winning ads that have driven $100M+ in revenue.
You can make $100K copying these ads if you know what you're doing.
Want the Google Drive?
1. Retweet this post.
2. Comment "icon".
3. DM me this post’s link & I'll DM you back with the Google Drive.
[Bonus] Get 3 free human creator ads if you do the above and we end up working together.
S. Nicolas retweeted
Every time I see a post about @trueclassictees I will subtweet how they owe me money for an unpaid invoice.
S. Nicolas retweeted
The conversion outage issue has been confirmed - apparently Meta's Data Center which houses their ad servers had a massive power outage. 😬
No timetable or details on resolution as of now. Stay tuned.
So USPS ground advantage shipping just went up 30% today. Stuff that used to cost $5 now cost $8.....holy cow.
S. Nicolas retweeted
Shopify appears to be down. Front end and back end. Seeing this on several stores.
@Shopify @ShopifyEng
S. Nicolas retweeted
Nine years at Meta.
I leave with deep gratitude. For the people. For the products. For the privilege of working alongside the sharpest marketing leaders and founders in the world on their biggest growth challenges.
What stays with me most is what I learned. About advertising and ad products. About building businesses and managing teams. About people. About myself.
Somewhere along the way, one lesson clicked harder than the rest. I could hire people smarter than me, with specialized skills I'd never have, and organize them around the highest-impact opportunities for advertisers and for Meta.
Executing on that one insight unlocked so much. Stronger teams. New performance advertising playbooks adopted globally. Measurement businesses could confidently act on. Sharper performance testing. Better results for the brands we served.
To the team I'm leaving behind: I'll be cheering you on, proudly and loudly, as you do even better things. You will.
To the people who taught me, backed me, partnered with me, and challenged me when I needed it: thank you. Most of what I'm taking with me, I learned from you. You know who you are.
As for me, there were posters on the walls over the years. Sayings that landed differently depending on the chapter. The one loudest right now: "What would you do if you weren't afraid?"
I'm going to spend some time with that one.
S. Nicolas retweeted
Let me re-phrase this. I TRIED to cancel Atria.
But the 'cancel subscription' brought me to this page.
This is inssane. You're telling me I have to do a 15 minute call to simply cancel a SaaS subscription?
That's unacceptable.
S. Nicolas retweeted
Replying to @malisauskasLT
If I called my cable company and said "Hey I didnt really watch TV for the last six months, so I'll need a full refund" they'd probably just hang up on me
S. Nicolas retweeted
After we've removed the Audience Network placement on the account level, most ad accounts performed just fine
Until a couple of weeks ago
We started noticing random spikes in CTR and CPM, both up and down, across all Meta placements (FB + IG + Threads)
No clear pattern
We've rebuilt accounts, launched fresh campaigns, ad sets, ads… everything
In some cases, we even tested brand new ad accounts and pixels
But for certain accounts, even that didn't help
I've been posting a lot about how the Meta Status page should probably be red right now because we've seen all sorts of delivery instability
Yet Meta comms remain completely quiet
And the fun part is:
Some ad accounts are not noticing any of this at all
We're just scaling those as business as usual





















