Professional investor and podcast host, spotlighting companies shaping a better future through technology and innovation. 22% CAGR over 23 years.
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Joined March 2008
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In August I wrote that the money in a megatrend isn't in spotting it, but in the lag between something being important and being priced as important. This month I acted on that idea at both ends of the same trend.
SpaceX vs The World + Alphabet $GOOGL
Elon thinks SpaceX will run everything else to "guppy-level death." @7FlyingPlatypus reads today's prices as the market betting Musk is right, and he calls that insane.
We test the fear on stocks we own: $IREN, $GOOGL, $ASTS and more
youtu.be/t5al1K44yO0
Question from a good friend today, "Luke, is this the start of the AI bubble going pop?"
Here's my math.
2026:
8 billion people
6 billion people online
1 billion digital natives
100 million have heard of agentic AI
< 10 million are using agentic AI
2030:
7 billion people using agentic AI
The "bubble" might pop, for a while, but we're early.
Plus all of the above is consumer-facing only, that's only part of the demand picture.
Followup in the same thread:
"Luke where do you think we are in 10 years?"
2036 prediction range
- ai pessimist: civil war
- ai optimist: many diseases cured, average lifespan up, average happiness and satisfaction up, on verge of unlocking limitless clean energy
2056 prediction range
- ai pessimist: extinct as a species
- ai optimist: multiplanetary species
🐒 vs 🦡 vs 🌳 vs the S&P 500
Our King of the Jungle challenge has a new home: wallstreetwildlife.com/kotj?…
Fully transparent: every holding, option and trade we’ve ever made, good calls and bad, raced daily against the index.
Year 3 ends next week. The carnage: episode 157 🎙️
Can FSD reignite vehicle deliveries? To me this question boils down to whether consumers buy the car, or buy their time back.
$TSLA reset its 2030 vehicle target to 5M from a prior 20M ambition. Fiscal.ai data puts trailing deliveries at 1.74M, still requiring about 30% annual growth. The tension: scaling cars while funding AI and robotics.\n\nAffiliate: fiscal.ai/wildlife
ALT Bar chart of Tesla annual vehicle deliveries from 2020 through the trailing twelve months of 2026. Deliveries rise from 0.50 million in 2020 to 1.74 million TTM in 2026, versus a 5.0 million 2030 target. The chart notes that roughly 30 percent annual growth is required. Source: Fiscal.ai company KPIs as of October 23, 2026; target from Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call.
Can AI Reverse Engineer Your Stocks?
@7FlyingPlatypus had his worst week ever, courtesy of $ASTS. I look at REA, the GitHub tool that reverse engineers apps down to native binaries, and we reconsider which moats AI can now seamlessly cross.
🤡
What could @Tesla be worth in 2031? ARK’s long-awaited valuation just dropped.
ark-invest.com/articles/valu…
Interesting observation here. Even allowing for inflation, $WISE customers are increasingly doing more business on the platform. If this were SaaS, we'd call it dollar based net retention. Clearly the compliance issues haven't scared customers away.
I'm no longer an owner, but it remains on my watchlist. Probably a few years still to work through their challenges, but I'd like to rebuy this stock once it's clear that they're on top of their financial crime obligations.
$WISE Q2: cross-border volume hit 71.7B, +22%, while active customers reached 12.5M, +20%. Over two years, volume grew 57% vs customers 41%. The tension: can scale keep outrunning fee compression? Affiliate: fiscal.ai/wildlife
ALT Line chart indexed to Q2 FY25 equals 100. Wise cross-border volume rises to 157, reaching 71.7 billion pounds in Q2 FY27, while active customers rise to 141, reaching 12.5 million. Source: Fiscal.ai, as of October 18, 2026.
SpaceX Caused $ASTS To Fall 16% Intraday. Did The Market Get It Wrong?
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📷 $AXON and the backlash against cameras everywhere
🧮 $CRWD Reverse DCF
🏗️ $BN Brookfield Corp starter position
youtu.be/lmjlHdZ6iks
Our AI podcast producer and researcher, @beaver_wsw, now has Bloomberg-terminal energy, courtesy of MCP from @Fiscal_ai. I don't say this often, but LFG.
$RKLB is cheaper, not cheap. Fiscal puts it at 44x trailing and 28x forward sales, down from a 138x P/S peak in May. LTM revenue growth is 52.5%. Execution is improving; Neutron slippage still leaves little room. Affiliate: fiscal.ai/wildlife
ALT Rocket Lab valuation chart based on Fiscal.ai data. Trailing price-to-sales peaked at 138.1 times on May 27, 2026 and fell to 44.1 times by October 16. Forward price-to-sales is 28.0 times, LTM revenue growth is 52.5 percent, market cap is 33.9 billion dollars, and Q2 revenue is 234 million dollars.
0 to 60 in 0.81s, kick flip over a truck, 2g suction downforce, ridiculous flight stunt off a giant inverted ramp, and a vertical take off bunny hop to close the demo.
Compressed air thrusters so fully rechargeable by the car between flights.
Say what you will about Musk, he's not short of ambition.
CrowdStrike $CRWD has to grow free cash flow 36% a year for ten years to ~$40 billion by 2037 to justify today's price. Peter Lynch says don't cut your flowers; that's solid advice, but portfolio discipline comes first.
From Episode 154, live now to Patreons & YouTube on Friday
I trimmed $CRWD to 3% of my retirement portfolio and nearly sold $NU on a Monzo rumor. @7FlyingPlatypus read a bear essay on AI spending and started talking himself out of $CIFR. Plus, is the S&P 500 dangerously concentrated?
youtu.be/Hw9NSzMMpsI
Luke Hallard retweeted
$ASTS inferred that $SPCX and Elon were going to become an MNO.
ASTS shareholders knew $TMUS was coming onboard because they had no choice.
So that which we “knew” is now verified. That verification is not bullish, but neutral at best.
Because at the same time ASTS didn’t get valuable spectrum, the loss of which strengthens/enables the only big-league completion they had.
➡️ So the only real question is how much market share can $ASTS help the dead-ducks-in-the-water ☠️🦆MNOs $T $VZ $TMUS (and the rest of the MNOs in Europe and around the world save/protect/hang-on-to in the next two years before Elon begins to try to take it all?
➡️ Secondly perhaps more importantly— the main bullish aspect might be that $ASTS margins just got (a lot?) more stable and stronger? Because what other choice do the MNOs have, now: exactly Zero other choices. They can’t try to cross the Rubicon on $AMZN’s back for the very reasons T-Mobile has excruciatingly demonstrated.
Plus: How much is the national sovereignty angle worth for the rest of the world?
TLDR: nuetral/bad because part of the physics problem got solved by SpaceX; and/but we knew $TMUS and others were coming, so no real new news here.
But $ASTS now as the only alternative to a nasty shark in the water 🩸seems to give it additional leverage as the only lifeboat available for the everyone else. 🦈🛶
Will the total market divided between SpaceX and everyone else on the planet make $ASTS a good investment from these prices 1x-3x or still a potential 5x- 10x?
@spacanpanman @thekookreport @bert_gilfoyle @AboveAvgOdds @Defiantclient2 @NomadBets @7LukeHallard
$NVDA is 8.24% of the S&P500, and the 20 biggest companies are over 50%. At the dot-com peak the top 20 held 38%
@7FlyingPlatypus reads the slices, and why it matters that the biggest names now move together
Ep 153, live now at wallstreetwildlife.com, hits youtube on Friday