Ry🅰️n O'Connor (@AboveAvgOdds) header
Ry🅰️n O'Connor (@AboveAvgOdds) profile picture

Founder and PM | Crossroads Capital

Kansas City, MO
Joined April 2010
Photo by Ry🅰️n O'Connor (@AboveAvgOdds)Photo by Ry🅰️n O'Connor (@AboveAvgOdds)Photo by Ry🅰️n O'Connor (@AboveAvgOdds)Photo by Ry🅰️n O'Connor (@AboveAvgOdds)Photo by Ry🅰️n O'Connor (@AboveAvgOdds)Photo by Ry🅰️n O'Connor (@AboveAvgOdds)Photo by Ry🅰️n O'Connor (@AboveAvgOdds)Photo by Ry🅰️n O'Connor (@AboveAvgOdds)Photo by Ry🅰️n O'Connor (@AboveAvgOdds)Photo by Ry🅰️n O'Connor (@AboveAvgOdds)
Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
$ASTS 👀
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
Gavin Baker says the Anthropic S-1 was clearly an upside surprise, and he cannot believe half the Fortune 500 has adopted Anthropic at 0.1% of their expenses “I do think the Anthropic S-1 was pretty clearly an upside surprise. The fact that they’ve only burned $10 billion, the profitability, the cash generation, the unit economics, they’re all very encouraging." "I put it on X, but I just cannot believe that whatever it is, half of the Fortune 500 has adopted Anthropic, and it’s 0.1% of their expenses. It’s just a wild stat.”
Gavin Baker says the Anthropic S-1 is going to break the brains of macro and value investors, who are very smart but ignorant of the fact that the majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. "But I do think the Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important, and I think it's going to break a lot of people's brains." "And the reason is, I think there are a lot of macro and value investors very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized." "Anthropic is generating cash." "And this fact is, I would say, kind of known in the world. I've actually never really spoken to Anthropic, but it just feels like there are enough signals that, if you read the tea leaves of what has been said in public, they're generating cash." "They're profitable. Open-source tokens are profitable. Anthropic is profitable. OpenAI, if they're not generating cash, they will be imminently. SpaceX, same thing." "When I hear these macro and value investors who are ignorant, they're very smart, but they're ignorant of the facts, making an assumption that tokens are subsidized and this is all going to collapse in some circular-financing bonfire, they're just wrong." "The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone. And I think the Anthropic S-1 is going to make that clear."
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
Most surprising line in the S-1: “Anthropic's revenue from Fortune 500 customers paying $100K+ a year averaged under 0.1% of those customers' total expenses in the September 2026 quarter. Over half the Fortune 500 is in that group.” Absolutely wild given ~$75b in revenue.
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
Love to see FirstNet proselytizing first responder dedicated networks and also $ASTS NTN solution at the global public safety operators conference teapawt.org/cytoplasmicana/status/…
FirstNet Authority leaders joined international counterparts to discuss the evolution of responder-dedicated networks worldwide at last week's Global Public Safety Operators Conference.
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
Tavily, acquired by $NBIS earlier this year, has just reached 3M developers, up more than 200% since January. For context, Tavily provides a search API built specifically for AI agents, allowing them to find, retrieve, and process real-time information from the web.
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
AI bears going to sleep after reading the Anthropic S1
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
$ASTS: This story is making the rounds so I am going to address it: floridatoday.com/story/tech/… On October 21, SpaceX VP Kiko Dontchev stated that SpaceX has a 6 week gap before the next Falcon 9 launch out of Florida, reason being for prep for Starship's debut in Florida. The 6 week gap aligns with Ben Cooper's manifest noting a "late November" launch for the Northrop Grumman Cygnus NG-25 mission, so this should be the next F9 launch being referenced by Kiko Dontchev. What this means for @AST_SpaceMobile: + BB14-16 are at Astrotech integrating for launch, and will be ready to go as soon as SpaceX Falcon 9 can launch them probably in December. + Why did AST ship if they don't have a launch? In my view it's one or both of two reasons: (1) AST was blindsided by SpaceX's sudden pause and/or (2) AST shipped to make room at their factory + This 6 week gap explains AST's silence on launch date PR. Their hands are literally tied. + Note that this Falcon 9 pause is not unique-to-ASTS as it impacts all Falcon 9 launches out of Florida, although you could make an argument that AST's payload is really the only one being impacted by this pause. That being said, I don't know the status of other Falcon 9 payloads that may or may not be impacted. Prep for Starship is a good excuse/reason though but yes it is unfortunate that AST's launch is being impacted. + How AST manages the narrative from here will be key, whether they do it with an interim update now or wait for the Q3 earnings call on November 9. The best thing for us shareholders and sentiment would be if AST can signal that production is going well and batches are continuing to get done and stockpile for a more rapid launch cadence starting in December when Falcon 9 returns to operation in Florida. --> Note that if AST's production is going well in the background, then I think this pause from SpaceX helps explain the unusual gap between BB11-13 and BB14-16. And as mentioned in bullet 3 above, this explains the weird comms from AST surrounding BB14-16 batch. --> Astrotech should have plenty of room to accept more BlueBirds if we can ship another batch or two while we wait for SpaceX to resume F9 operations in Florida. In adjacent/related news, our boots on the ground are reporting that more shipping containers are arriving in Midland soon, which is a positive sign for more shipments coming in the near term: teapawt.org/DanteePacheco/status/2…
They ordered more boxes, they will be in midland soon!!
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
Nintendo raised the Switch 2's price last month, but Samsung's upgraded 8nm node could make a cheaper Lite model possible. 🔗 wccf.tech/1lg4p
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
Cliff Sosin (@CliffordSosin) is one of my favorite people to call, ask some big questions, and then shut up and listen. This conversation is a version of one of those calls. We discuss: - The limits of intelligence - Owning the complements to it - Meta, the frontier labs, and the AI build-out - Capital markets - Why he's comfortable with 80% of his portfolio in Carvana. TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 10:41 The Limits of Intelligence 18:03 Investing Beyond Cheap Intelligence 24:03 Will AI Become Commoditized? 35:10 Who Profits From AI? 43:00 AI Agents Reshape Competition 52:06 America's Capital Markets 58:04 Transforming Companies With AI 68:19 AI and Portfolio Concentration 73:16 Education in the AI Era
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
Replying to @SemiAnalysis_
In one year Anthropic went from burning cash and posting a $2.1B operating loss in H1 2025 to free-cash-flow positive in H1 2026 (+$3.4B FCF) while revenue grew 14x to $16.3B and they flipped to operating profitability in Q2. They’ve raised $141B total and still sit on $132B in cash and short-term investments having burned only $10B historically.
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
The most mind blowing stat we've seen so far is this: "As of June 30, 2026, we had raised an aggregate of $141.1 billion of capital and had cash and cash equivalents of $112.4 billion and short-term investments of $19.3 billion." That means to date, they have burned 9.7b, they are growing at a rapid pace, and are profitable on an operating income basis as of the June quarter! This is likely the most efficient scaling of a business in the history of capitalism. teapawt.org/AnthropicAI/status/211…
Anthropic has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC related to its proposed IPO. Read more: anthropic.com/news/s1-sec Legal disclaimer: A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This post does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
I am shocked, absolutely shocked, that Anthropic ARR has likely gone vertical in October after they cut token prices. Except the exact same thing happened for the entire AI market, which is why GPU rental prices have surged while token prices declined. $100b plus in year-end ARR looks possible again.
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
Gavin Baker says the Anthropic S-1 will break a lot of investors' brains "The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized." "Anthropic is generating cash. They're profitable. Open source tokens are profitable. OpenAI, if they're not generating cash, they will be imminently. SpaceX, same thing." "These macro and value investors are ignorant. They're very smart, but they're ignorant of the facts. They're making an assumption that tokens are subsidized and this is all going to collapse in some circular financing bonfire." "They're just wrong. The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone." "It's saying I'm very bearish on the world economy because oil is at $500 a barrel. If oil was at $500 a barrel, that'd be a good reason to be bearish. It's just not. They're just wrong. The central fact is wrong."
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
Avride has been named Autonomous Vehicle Solution of the Year in the 2026 AutoTech Breakthrough Awards! From robotaxis on Dallas roads to delivery robots on sidewalks and campuses, we’re building autonomy for the real world. Multiple applications. A growing impact.
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
While Singleton’s share repurchases get a lot of attention, the pure growth during Teledyne’s first ten years is astonishing. Revenue: $4.5 million -> $1.1 billion Net Income: $175k -> $32 million EPS: $0.13 -> $8.55 ~150 acquisitions
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
$ASTS: 🚨BLUE ORIGIN ON TRACK TO RESUME NEW GLENN PAD OPS IN NOVEMBER @outerspacetoday: Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin is targeting a return to New Glenn launch-pad operations in November, following a catastrophic rocket explosion that damaged its Cape Canaveral launch complex in May. According to Aviation Week, Blue Origin has completed reconstruction of its 430-foot Vehicle Access Tower at Launch Complex 36, a major milestone toward resuming launches. The May 28 explosion occurred during a preflight engine test, destroying the rocket and damaging critical ground infrastructure. Blue Origin subsequently traced the failure to an oxygen-valve issue in one of its BE-4 engines. Rather than rebuilding the original launch configuration, the company is introducing a new system that integrates rocket stages horizontally before lifting the vehicle onto the launch pad. Blue Origin is still targeting a return to flight before the end of 2026, although no launch date has been confirmed. The recovery is critical to New Glenn's growing commercial and government launch commitments, including NASA's Artemis lunar program. Original Paywalled article: aviationweek.com/space/launc…
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
Replying to @nebiusai
@nebiusai could probably help SpaceX to become the cloud by partnering and providing the full platform to serve diversity of customers… not just rent out a full cluster to one customer :)
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Ry🅰️n O'Connor retweeted
Brazil literally took away spectrum from SpaceX AND Omnispace to give it to AST. Love to see it.
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AST SpaceMobile Advances Brazil Expansion with Anatel’s Approval for S-band Spectrum and Secondary Use of the 700 MHz Band, Agreements with Four Regional Operators and Planned Ground Infrastructure businesswire.com/news/home/2…
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