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AltayCap

@AltayCapital

Value investor. Istanbul. Nothing I post is investment advice. All my writeups are free. No paywalls. https://teapawt.org/t.co/vNBoJqnyTK

 Switzerland
altaycap.substack.com/
Joined March 2022
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Big (130%+) upward revision of H1 profit for 1960.T Sanyo Engineering & Construction. I actually added to this position after my 'Stack article. Malaysian datacenter work was cited as one reason for revision.
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It should be much easier to avoid outright scam companies with AI. Just ask your fav ai to investigate corporate governance issues and bad behavior. Learned this company's founder sold 2 racehorses to the company (price was 10% of mcap), then they wrote 100% down as a loss.
AltayCap (@AltayCapital) profile pictureAltayCap
@AltayCapitalOct 14
Nanocap HK listed operator of 10 pachinko halls in Japan trades at 0.22x p/b and 1.4 p/e but issued lots of new shares in Dec and Feb. 20%+ diluted at 0.2x p/b lol. No dividend either. Lots of terrible co's in HK. Why own something like this? Okura 1655. $14m mcap
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Nanocap HK listed operator of 10 pachinko halls in Japan trades at 0.22x p/b and 1.4 p/e but issued lots of new shares in Dec and Feb. 20%+ diluted at 0.2x p/b lol. No dividend either. Lots of terrible co's in HK. Why own something like this? Okura 1655. $14m mcap
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Totally uninvestable. They also randomly put $4m (entire mcap is $14m) into a SpaceX fund with high fees pre ipo in June and are up $1m on it. Terrible governance and whoever buys this is gonna get shystered by management.
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Other obvious red flags: Founder bought a much larger competing pachinko chain in 2021. Founder sold 2 of his competition race horses to his public company for 212m jpy (almost 10% of mcap). Co wrote down 100% of value in few years. Founder dumped his race horses on public co.
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If anyone is curious just how wild pachinko machines are when winning, this 30s video is worth watching. It's also much much louder in person. Maximum dopamine. This can run for 30+ mins too!
╵᷅ժ ̀っつん (@q6c5Hw5puPqo1I5) profile picture╵᷅ժ ̀っつん
@q6c5Hw5puPqo1I5Aug 7
合法ドパガキ演出はこちらです
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@DaBao_ gotta tag since he truly hates HK stocks
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Caught an idol performance at the Hachinohe morning market. Was the only white person there!
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Here's my silly 9 games thing. Played many MMOs but Ultima Online was by far my favorite. Was my first experience getting scammed online. Eventually got so good I made like $8k on one summer selling in game gold on eBay when I was like 14 or 15. Good times.
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Zephyr (@zephyr_z9) profile pictureZephyr
@zephyr_z9Sep 26
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Lots of durable value stocks in Japan. Here's one: profitable for 70 years straight (since 1957), 9x ev/ebit, 3.3% dividend, 12 p/e, 0.8x book. Maezawa Kyuso 6485.T No strong opinion, just found it neat that it's been profitable so long + decent dividend!
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$BKNG discourse regarding agents: If the interface to book changes, OTAs lose. Boutique hotels don't need to be tech savvy. They will run some white label SaaS product that interfaces with agents and handles booking. OTAs are bad for society. Huge take rates (20%+) due to rent seeking. No real innovation / value add to society. Disruption here is good. Disruption will be slow because I imagine bkng contracts will stifle adoption and agent usage is still nothing and won't be anything material for at least a decade. If bkng trades at 30 p/e, it would be an easy short. But today's valuation isn't too demanding. But still tempting to short.
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Given how universally negative replies are here, BKNG is looking like a decent short term sentiment short. Everyone is bullish! People saying I'm drinking the agents koolaid when I said BKNG is cheap AND potential disruption is a decade away!
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New writeup on the 'stack. Free like always. Applied (TYO 3020) is a very cheap company with solid 17.6% RoE despite sitting on half their market cap in net cash. This is a name I've posted about on X several times since 2024. Posted it last night.
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David called it out as stupidly cheap in early 2025 too. It's up 55%+ since his post! I've owned this one since early 2023 and recently added a bit. teapawt.org/orrdavid/status/190351…
David Orr (@orrdavid) profile pictureDavid Orr
@orrdavid22 Mar 2025
Replying to @orrdavid
I want to find an excuse to buy this one, but the volume is just too damn low. My god is this a cheap stock.
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AltayCap retweeted
David Orr (@orrdavid) profile picture
David Orr
@orrdavidSep 5
Great companies are built by doing things differently, taking risks. $IBKR
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Kadoya Sesame Mills (2612.T) is limit up today after a paid services said it was going to go private. Company said they were considering it but haven't announced anything yet. Sadly I didn't hold onto it despite minimal downside, and decent upside.
AltayCap (@AltayCapital) profile pictureAltayCap
@AltayCapital11 Sep 2025
Replying to @japan_guru_x
My gut says Mitsubishi will takeover 2612 Kadoya too. Massively net cash. Trading around book. Mitsubishi owns 26.8% already. What's the downside to holding something like this? Some opportunity cost for sure. Durable/safe biz that never loses money. On margin looks good.
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Seems like im the only one blown away by these numbers. $ttwo had an incredibly storied history with many successful games and over a decade of high margin gta5 online numbers, but even pre Zynga writedown barely had any profit. Will gta6 be different?
AltayCap (@AltayCapital) profile pictureAltayCap
@AltayCapitalApr 16
Take Two (think Grand Theft Auto) has accumulated deficit of $7.3 bn. Zelnick + 1 other exec got $72.3m in 2023. Retained earnings peaked @ $2.3bn. Zelnick + the other exec were paid ~$339m since 2016, or 1/7th of the entire firm's peak cumulative profit. Good deal for them.
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GTA 6 will likely be different, but a company that historically failed to convert huge successes into profits for shareholders is not ideal. I have a tiny short position.
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This could be a HUGE boost to Japan's governance reforms, with potentially big implications for M&A Japan eyes tax breaks for non-core business sales in governance reform push, sources say reuters.com/world/japan-eyes…
EXCLUSIVE Japan eyes tax breaks for non-core business sales in governance reform push, sources say

EXCLUSIVE Japan eyes tax breaks for non-core business sales in governance reform push, sources say

Japan's government ‌is considering tax breaks on gains from sales of non-core businesses, a move that could accelerate long-delayed corporate restructuring and spur industry consolidation, two people...

reuters.com
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Had 10 plates of Kura sushi in the U.S. today, came out to $42. The same 10 plates are about $9-$10 in Tokyo. Yen seems undervalued, but macro/fx is impossible to predict. Can't imagine how crazy the prices must feel to Japanese on holiday to U.S.
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