AltayCap

$4628 Sk Kaken thesis: 1. The stock is currently a modest value trap. 10x earnigns with a 2% dividend that has been going up with Japan's shareholder pressure campaign. I'll arbitrarily assume that'll normalize to a 3% dividend on average - sometimes it'll be a bit worse, sometimes a bit better, but that's a fine guess. On top of that, the cash pile will grow with earings which you can discount say 70%, so another 3%. Total is a low downside risk 6%/year expected return. Not great, but honestly not that bad. 2. Founder/family control is the blocker. Shikoku Kousan owns 31.88%, and Fujii Minoru, Fujii Kunihiro, and Fujii Mitsuhiro own another roughly 9.3%, so the Fujii-side block is about 41% excluding treasury shares. The company also has 2.18m treasury shares, about 13.9% of issued shares, with no votes. 3. The relevant entity is 四国興産有限会社 / Shikoku Kousan, located in Takarazuka, Hyogo. It is listed as established on September 1, 1998, so as of June 16, 2026, it is 27 years and about 9.5 months old. That is much younger than SK Kaken itself, which was founded in 1955 and incorporated in 1958. 4. The patriarch is almost certainly Fujii Minoru, the SK Kaken founder. He is 93, turning 94 on September 1, 2026. - Heads you get a safe 6%/year turn. Tails, the patriarch passes away and you get a 15%+/year expected return. If you assign even 30% odds to tails, this is a fantastic risk adjusted bet. If the patriarch was even 10 years younger, that looks far more questionable. If anyone else has these age-as-a-catalyst plays, please comment or DM me.