Economist at Bank of England. CEPR fellow. LSE Guest lecturer. EER associate editor. Views are my own. When not here I'm often here https://xitter.cf/t.co/Axj7hlrmvk
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Joined October 2011
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VAR Toolbox v4.0 is out 🚀
github.com/ambropo/VAR-Toolb…
A collection of MATLAB codes for VAR analysis—estimation, identification, IRFs, variance and historical decompositions.
v4.0 is a major overhaul: new identification schemes, LPs now in the toolbox, and a long-promised handbook.
Short thread with details below 👇
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
Hey @AnthropicAI employees, would any of you like to put your money where your mouth is and join this bet?
Still very much looking for counterparties on the fast-growth (=real GDP growth > 15% by 2033) side
benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/
Some real diversity of opinion at Google DeepMind: @alexolegimas joins the bet while his colleague @SamuelAlbanie takes the other side increasing his existing stake!
Total size of pot now $425,000!
benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
Happy to announce the release of our first curated dataset from @GLL_Brown @Brown_Economics @Watson_School @RhodesCenter We logged every US tariff rate: threats, announcements, signed into law since January 2025. 749 of them, timed to the minute, with the exact quote and source. Only 30% are executive orders. The rest is the noise markets trade on. Free, updated weekly:
globallinkages.org/datasets/…
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
What do tariffs and fiscal populism do to exchange rates, the dollar, and central banks? Four new podcasts from our 2026 Venice EP: PEGI conference on Globalisation and Fiscal Populism, with @timsvengali Tim Phillips in conversation with the authors. @cepr_org @CESifoNetwork @sciencespo Listen: economic-policy.org/video-po…
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
Please spread the word. Bilkent Economics is hiring.
econjobmarket.org/positions/…
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
Come join our macro group @UniBonn! We're hiring two postdocs for three years, starting September 2027. Empirical and theoretical macroeconomists (broadly defined) welcome.
Apply by 15 Nov 2026: econjobmarket.org/positions/…
#EconTwitter #EconJobs @christianbaye13
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
Here are my keynote slides globallinkages.org/pdfs/bc38… from the recent conference by @arebucci1
carey.jhu.edu/events/envisio…
Many insightful panels on how to develop tools and frameworks, backed by evidence, for global policymakers who are trying to navigate through geopolitical shocks. Understanding Macroeconomics of Geopolitics is first order for this goal. My keynote summarizes the research we have been doing at @GLL_Brown @RhodesCenter @Watson_School @Brown_Economics on these issues---How are supply chain trade, investment and capital ownership changing at the firm level, globally, and what are the inflationary consequences of these changes for the United States and other countries?
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
I mean, 3 out of 5 @RevEconStudies Tourists from @LSEEcon is not a bad result... @amenjalal_ @AnanyaKotia @AdriCouturier did a fantastic market and this tour is well deserved. Write down their names, you will hear them often in the next few years.
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
New report from the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee: steady euro-area growth, but changing drivers. Excluding Ireland, GDP grew 1.2% y/y in 2026Q2, back in line with its 2011–19 average. Unemployment is 6.4%, close to its historic low
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
Our new report on the euro area business cycle is out! See Giovanni’s thread for the main findings. @cepr_org
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
Whose wages will 🚀 and whose will 📉 bc of AI? Important, but hard to know ex ante.
But what about AI impact on *the poor* vs. *the rich* (in terms of financial wealth)?
Returns climbing daily, perhaps in part bc of AI... Time for:
💰💰💰💰💰 MEETS 🤖🤖🤖🤖🤖
1/N
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
After another summer of extreme heat, we are reminded of the mortality consequences of climate change.
In our new paper, we show that rising global temperatures have large and persistent effects on mortality - far beyond the direct effects of local heat exposure.
Adrien has a great thread summarizing our findings below 👇
How large are the mortality costs of climate change? And mostly due to heat?
Large, and mostly indirect.
New paper with @drkaenzig and Krzysztof Lisiecki: "Global Temperature and Global Mortality"
nber.org/papers/w35832
Ungated PDF: tinyurl.com/2b4lrcfh
A thread.
1/5
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
I just started a new Substack newsletter, Macroeconomics from Europe. The idea is, well, to offer a macroeconomic perspective on European issues. Here is the first post, hope you'll have a look!
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
Dear Kristalina, I am delighted to be appointed as the @IMFNews's Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department as of 4 January 2027. In this role, I will devote all my energy to fostering global cooperation and financial stability.
I'm delighted to announce the appointment of Isabel Schnabel as IMF Financial Counsellor, effective Jan. 4, 2027. Her distinguished record, including at the ECB, and leadership in research and policymaking will be invaluable to the Fund. imf.org/en/news/articles/202…
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
If AI raises the capital share of income, will workers ultimately benefit?
Recent analyses using a workhorse macro model concluded: YES.
I wrote a paper explaining why these conclusions are somewhat misleading. The future of wages might not be so rosy.
dropbox.com/scl/fi/28uq0gptp…
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
A few thoughts on the macroeconomic policies that could foster innovation and growth in the European Union, written for the Europe 2050 project @ojblanchard1 @cepr_org. Key points:
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
Great stuff from @LukaszRachel who puts our bet in historical context.
Systematic analysis of per-capita GDP growth rates for:
- 211 countries across the whole world since 1962, i.e. including growth miracles like China and not just frontier countries like the U.S.
- 11,109 country-year pairs
Even with this sample Pr(growth > 15% above prior peak) = 0.9% only!
And for frontier countries like the U.S., there is one single country-year pair. But that one is Ireland in 2015 which shouldn't really count (measurement issue due to multinationals).
Summary: basically, it has never happened before.
Of course that doesn't necessarily tell you about the future and for that you want to rely on other arguments aleximas.substack.com/p/will…
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
Hi @elonmusk would you perhaps be interested in participating on the fast-growth side of this bet?
benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/
xitter.cf/ben_moll/status/209291…
Thanks to @willmacaskill, @SamuelAlbanie, @tomcohen for taking the other side of this bet at 4:1 odds and to @andrewho03 for joining on my side.
Here are the final terms we agreed on benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/
More (within) ~7 years from now 😃
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
Just how unprecedented would growth need to be for @ben_moll and the fast growth side to lose this bet on AI?
Lecture 1 of my econ of growth module @UCL always has some stylized facts on growth. Let’s see what these say. 🧵
Some real diversity of opinion at Google DeepMind: @alexolegimas joins the bet while his colleague @SamuelAlbanie takes the other side increasing his existing stake!
Total size of pot now $425,000!
benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi retweeted
Interview in Børsen today about Warsh, the Fed, and fiscal pressures on US inflation. Will Warsh give in to pressures from Trump to keep or cut the rate, or will he follow Powell's path and raise interest rates?
borsen.dk/nyheder/perspektiv…
