M. Eng. Electronic โก ใฐ๏ธ Financial data & analysis. Value investing. Growth? at a reasonable price ๐ฆ ๐ง๐ป
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Joined February 2023
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A MONTH later....
- Micron $MU : from $724.66 ---> $1,141.75 [+57.5%] ๐
- SK hynix : from โฌ1,080 ---> โฌ1,580 [+46%] ๐
- Sandisk $SNDK : from $1,407.61 ---> 2,200.67 [+56%] ๐
Sorry not sorry for the former Memory Bulls turned... clowns, and a real sorry for the Memory Panicans ๐
NASDAQ -4% (so far)๐๐๐
Algos playing with pension/sovereign funds hardcore mode๐คก I hope Retail is not so dumb to be falling on this fud ๐
Alex A.C. retweeted
The implicit assumption in the question is that higher rates help fix inflation in all contexts.
In reality, certain conditions/causes for inflation are not fixed by higher rates.
"Therefore, even if credit issues are being raised in the market, we are not experiencing any impact from them. Customer DEMAND IS ACTUALLY GROWING EVEN STRONGER than in the previous quarter" - $SNDK ๐
Fundamentals ACROSS industry stronger as ever. No fear guys
$MU $SKHY
์๋์คํฌ( $SNDK) FY27 1๋ถ๊ธฐ ์ด๋์ฝ Q&A ์ค
Q. [BofA) / ์์ ๋ชจํ]
๋ฐํ ์๋ฃ์์ ์ ๋์ ์ธ AI ๊ธฐ์
๋ค๊ณผ์ ํ์๊ฐ ์ถ๊ฐ์ ์ธ ์์ ์ฆ๊ฐ ๊ฐ๋ฅ์ฑ์ ์์ฌํ๋ค๊ณ ์ธ๊ธํ์ต๋๋ค.
์ฌ๊ธฐ์ ๋งํ๋ AI ๊ธฐ์
๋ค์ AI ์ฐ๊ตฌ์(AI Labs)์
๋๊น, ์๋๋ฉด ๋ค์คํด๋ผ์ฐ๋(Neocloud) ๊ธฐ์
๋ค์
๋๊น?
๋ํ ์ต๊ทผ ๋ค์คํด๋ผ์ฐ๋ ๊ธฐ์
๋ค์ ๋๋ฌ์ผ ์ ์ฉ์ํ ์ฐ๋ ค๊ฐ ์๋์คํฌ ์ฌ์
์๋ ์ด๋ค ํํ๋ก๋ ์ํฅ์ ๋ฏธ์น๊ณ ์์ต๋๊น?
A. [๋ฃจ์ด์ค ๋น์์ / CFO]
ํ์ฌ๊น์ง ๊ทธ๋ฌํ ์ํฅ์ ์ ํ ํ์ธ๋์ง ์์์ต๋๋ค.
์คํ๋ ค ๊ณ ๊ฐ๋ค๋ก๋ถํฐ ๋งค์ฐ ๊ฐ๋ ฅํ ์์๊ฐ ๋ํ๋๊ณ ์์ต๋๋ค.
์์ ๋ง์๋๋ ธ๋ฏ์ด, ๋น์ฌ์ ์ต๋ ๊ณ ๊ฐ๋ค์ ์ดํด๋ณด๋ฉด ์ฌ์ค์ ๋ชจ๋ ํฌ์์ ๊ฒฉ๋ฑ๊ธ(Investment Grade) ๊ธฐ์
์ด๋ฉฐ, ๋งค์ฐ ๊ฐ๋ ฅํ ํ๊ธํ๋ฆ์ ์ฐฝ์ถํ๊ณ ์์ต๋๋ค.
๋ฐ๋ผ์ ์์ฅ์์ ์ ์ฉ ๋ฌธ์ ๊ฐ ์ ๊ธฐ๋๊ณ ์๋๋ผ๋ ๋น์ฌ๋ ๊ทธ๋ก ์ธํ ์ํฅ์ ์ ํ ๊ฒฝํํ์ง ์๊ณ ์์ต๋๋ค.
๊ณ ๊ฐ ์์๋ ์คํ๋ ค ์ง๋ ๋ถ๊ธฐ๋ณด๋ค ๋์ฑ ๊ฐํด์ง๊ณ ์์ต๋๋ค.
$NBIS, $NVDA
Alex A.C. retweeted
Cloud growth is accelerating across Big Tech:
$AMZN CEO: "AWS grew 39.3% year-over-year, accelerating for the sixth straight quarter, our fastest growth in nearly 5 years. Backlog is $578 billion, growing triple digits year-over-year and well diversified."
$MSFT CFO: "Azure revenue was ahead of expectations and increased 48%, even with the 3P capacity delays noted earlier, driven by Foundry and improved CPU monetization."
$GOOGL CFO: "Cloud revenues were up 103% to $30.7 billion, driven by strong growth in GCP, with strength in AI, including both AI infrastructure and AI solutions, and core GCP"
Data centers additions forecast accelerating, and you are bearish Semis, guys?? ๐
$MU $SKHY $WDC $AVGO $MRVL
Nomura: Based on our latest tracking, incorporating project delays, cancellations and additions, we now have 51 GW-scale data center projects in our tracking base.
Our latest calculation indicates 26GW/40GW/28GW incremental deployment in 2026F/2027F/2028F, from 27/32/23 GW in June update.
We estimate 26GW/40GW/28GW could translate into the demand for 5-8mn AI chips.
$NVDA $AMD $GOOGL $META $MSFT $SPCX $AMZN
Alex A.C. retweeted
AMD's fungible chiplet architecture winning hard
I'm really surprised that LBT was so optimistic about consumer demand
Next year will be rough too
I think Intel badly underestimated how quickly higher memory prices would hit PC demand and trigger an inventory correction.
Those risks were already visible by the Q2 earnings call. Management acknowledged them, but still expected client revenue to hold roughly flat in Q3, supported by CPU inventory replenishment. That assumption now looks too optimistic. They should have set more conservative expectations for the client business.
Still, Lip-Bu did make some encouraging comments.
โWe expect the industry to remain supply constrained throughout 2027 and into 2028.โ
โWe now expect industry server CPU units to grow more than 30% in both 2026 and 2027.โ
โGrowth would be higher in both years if additional industry supply were available.โ
Alex A.C. retweeted
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan on CPUs:
โThe resurgence in demand for CPU is a meaningful tailwind for us along our transformation journey."
"Increasingly, energy efficiency is becoming the most important metric for the AI infrastructure build-out."
"While GPUs are great at thinking tasks, deterministic CPUs are more efficient at doing tasks. While a GPU reasoning query can run as high as multiple watt-hours of energy, a single CPU query could cost only joules of energy."
"Applying even conservative estimates to the total number of digital agents and agents served per CPU, it is easy to anticipate a massive dollar and unit TAM for CPUs over the coming five years."
"By our estimates, server CPU TAM, largely driven by agentic workloads, could increase as much as five times from where it is today, from $40 billion to more than $200 billion over five years. This makes the opportunity for Intel enormous.โ
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan:
โI also want to acknowledge headwinds limiting our progress to meet this extremely high AI-driven demand."
"First, Intel 3 yield and cycle time continue to improve, but I am demanding significant execution from the team."
"Second, even as our Intel 3 wafer output ramps quickly, an industry-wide shortage of advanced organic substrates for our EMIB packaging is also impacting our ability to scale output."
"Finally, early this month, an unfortunate and tragic accident led to an extended shutdown in our Israel factory.โ
Alex A.C. retweeted
Remember $NBIS is trading for less than one time our projected 2027 ARR.
If we are too high by 50%, nebius is still trading less than two times next yearโs exit.
Not many opportunities to intersect that deep of value, elite management, and an insatiable demand environment.
ASE showcased its panel-level packaging (PLP) solution for AMDโs Venice CPU, with initial production targeted for Q1 2027, likely at limited scale at its Kaohsiung facility. ASE and its subsidiary SPIL have worked with AMD to implement the second generation of their Fan-Out Embedded Bridge (FOEB) technology in Venice. The current 310 ร 310 mm panel accommodates 25 Venice interposers after edge loss, compared with 22 on a traditional round 300 mm carrier wafer, roughly a 14% increase in gross package count. This modest improvement in package output per carrier represents a starting point for panel-level interposers with Veniceโs 2.7x reticle size, rather than evidence of a dramatic reduction in cost. (1/2)๐งต
Source: OCP ASE Booth
$AMZN Q4-2026 Guidance
"Operatingย incomeย isย expectedย toย beย betweenย $28.5Bย andย $33.5B,ย comparedย withย $25.0Bย inย Q4-2025"
With the potential drop for tomorrow, and in the low range of Guidance, Amazon would be a P/E 18 stock ๐ง
Remember that thx. to AWS, its margins are improving
โIn the case of renewal of GPUs or other IT equipment, we gave a real life example in our Q1 where weโre selling or renewing 4-year GPUs at 20% premiums to their original contract priceโ - $ORCL ๐ฅ๐ฅ
4 years old GPUs.... at +20% vs previously. Take note frens $NBIS
Oracle CFO Hilary Maxson says Oracle is renewing 4-year-old GPUs at 20% premiums to their original contract price
โOf course thereโs a question of recontracting and the necessity for the renewal of GPUs at the end of our various contracts. Mahesh walked through the differentiation we have in terms of technology and how weโll continue to drive value for our customers over time. Weโre building a business for today and tomorrow, and we expect to recontract at similar margin rates or better than what we have today.โ
โIn the case of renewal of GPUs or other IT equipment, we gave a real life example in our Q1 where weโre selling or renewing 4-year GPUs at 20% premiums to their original contract price. We put that information into the slide here. We think thatโs a powerful example of the potential upside from the GPUs we have in our portfolio today. We wonโt count on it, but we do think that these are valuable assets both for today and into the future.โ