M. Eng. Electronic ⚡ 〰️ Financial data & analysis. Value investing. Growth? at a reasonable price 🦔 🧔🏻
EU
Joined February 2023
- Tweets54.5K
- Following147
- Followers4.6K
- Likes97.1K
Alex A.C. retweeted
The implicit assumption in the question is that higher rates help fix inflation in all contexts.
In reality, certain conditions/causes for inflation are not fixed by higher rates.
Alex A.C. retweeted
Cloud growth is accelerating across Big Tech:
$AMZN CEO: "AWS grew 39.3% year-over-year, accelerating for the sixth straight quarter, our fastest growth in nearly 5 years. Backlog is $578 billion, growing triple digits year-over-year and well diversified."
$MSFT CFO: "Azure revenue was ahead of expectations and increased 48%, even with the 3P capacity delays noted earlier, driven by Foundry and improved CPU monetization."
$GOOGL CFO: "Cloud revenues were up 103% to $30.7 billion, driven by strong growth in GCP, with strength in AI, including both AI infrastructure and AI solutions, and core GCP"
Alex A.C. retweeted
AMD's fungible chiplet architecture winning hard
I'm really surprised that LBT was so optimistic about consumer demand
Next year will be rough too
I think Intel badly underestimated how quickly higher memory prices would hit PC demand and trigger an inventory correction.
Those risks were already visible by the Q2 earnings call. Management acknowledged them, but still expected client revenue to hold roughly flat in Q3, supported by CPU inventory replenishment. That assumption now looks too optimistic. They should have set more conservative expectations for the client business.
Still, Lip-Bu did make some encouraging comments.
“We expect the industry to remain supply constrained throughout 2027 and into 2028.”
“We now expect industry server CPU units to grow more than 30% in both 2026 and 2027.”
“Growth would be higher in both years if additional industry supply were available.”
Alex A.C. retweeted
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan on CPUs:
“The resurgence in demand for CPU is a meaningful tailwind for us along our transformation journey."
"Increasingly, energy efficiency is becoming the most important metric for the AI infrastructure build-out."
"While GPUs are great at thinking tasks, deterministic CPUs are more efficient at doing tasks. While a GPU reasoning query can run as high as multiple watt-hours of energy, a single CPU query could cost only joules of energy."
"Applying even conservative estimates to the total number of digital agents and agents served per CPU, it is easy to anticipate a massive dollar and unit TAM for CPUs over the coming five years."
"By our estimates, server CPU TAM, largely driven by agentic workloads, could increase as much as five times from where it is today, from $40 billion to more than $200 billion over five years. This makes the opportunity for Intel enormous.”
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan:
“I also want to acknowledge headwinds limiting our progress to meet this extremely high AI-driven demand."
"First, Intel 3 yield and cycle time continue to improve, but I am demanding significant execution from the team."
"Second, even as our Intel 3 wafer output ramps quickly, an industry-wide shortage of advanced organic substrates for our EMIB packaging is also impacting our ability to scale output."
"Finally, early this month, an unfortunate and tragic accident led to an extended shutdown in our Israel factory.”
Alex A.C. retweeted
Remember $NBIS is trading for less than one time our projected 2027 ARR.
If we are too high by 50%, nebius is still trading less than two times next year’s exit.
Not many opportunities to intersect that deep of value, elite management, and an insatiable demand environment.
Alex A.C. retweeted
Joining forces with @tradexyz
Welcome to our community.
trade[XYZ] and ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, are joining forces to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States.
In just over a year, our markets on Hyperliquid have surpassed $650 billion in volume. They provide continuous price discovery for stocks, indices, and commodities, and have become trusted reference points for retail and institutions alike when traditional markets are closed. Much of the world trades them. Until now, Americans could only watch.
We intend to change that. Subject to CFTC approval, trade[XYZ] and ICE plan to establish a new, dedicated U.S. market, with novel exchange and clearing infrastructure built on Hyperliquid. Planned contracts span equities, indices, commodities, FX, and crypto, with access through participating brokers and platforms. We’ll share more on products, eligibility, and timing as approvals progress.
ICE brings more than 25 years of experience operating regulated markets, clearing, and managing risk. trade[XYZ] brings the product development, market design, and technology behind the most liquid and robust markets on Hyperliquid.
Innovation and the protections of U.S. regulation shouldn’t be a trade-off. Together, we plan to prove it.
ICE is making a strategic investment in trade[XYZ] and joins us in building towards the future of Hyperliquid. A small group of market luminaries is joining as well, beginning with Stan Druckenmiller. For more than four decades, few investors have anticipated the great turns in markets as often as Stan. We’re proud to have him with us for the next one.
We’re building the U.S. market in parallel with our existing HIP-3 markets, which we’ll continue to expand and innovate on. We expect both to flourish. They each have a long road map ahead, from new asset classes to new ways to trade them.
To the Hyperliquid community, whether you were here before us or came because of us, thank you. You took a chance on new markets and you made them matter. You’ll forever be a part of this story.
Anything. Anytime. On ICE[XYZ].
Alex A.C. retweeted
$META is making its ad engine dramatically more powerful with $NVDA help. And this could have a meaningful impact on its advertising economics.
Meta and Nvidia have been working together to optimize Andromeda, Meta's AI-powered ad retrieval engine.
The results are impressive:
> 1B+ ads processed per second on a single GPU server
> 100x less network traffic through pipeline consolidation
> 300x fewer FLOPs per inference through model redesign
> 5.3x faster MoE gating, reaching ~85% of peak HBM bandwidth
And this is on Hopper (GH200). Not Blackwell. Not Rubin.
But the most interesting part isn't the raw throughput.
Meta and NVIDIA have optimized a sophisticated Mixture-of-Experts model to run nearly as fast as a simple dot-product scoring kernel.
In other words, Meta can make its ad targeting significantly more intelligent without a proportional increase in serving costs.
For a company generating well over $100B annually from advertising, even a 1% improvement in monetization could translate into billions in additional revenue. And that's before considering infrastructure savings.
For NVIDIA, there's another important takeaway: its competitive advantage extends far beyond the GPUs themselves. Its engineers are working directly with customers to redesign the models, kernels, and execution pipelines running on its hardware.
And Meta says there's still substantial performance headroom, with further optimization already underway for Grace Blackwell.
The real opportunity in AI isn't just building new products. It's making existing businesses more profitable. And NVIDIA is positioning itself at the center of both.
Alex A.C. retweeted
Aletheia is the best research house. Their industry intelligence is truly impressive.
Aletheia: Anthropic has increased its AMD GPU orders for 2028 to 3 GW—three times its original deployment target of 1 GW.
Aletheia: OpenAI has increased its total planned AMD GPU deployments over 2026–2028 from 6 GW to 8–9 GW.
Alex A.C. retweeted
Goldman Sachs on HBM pricing:
"TrendForce expects blended HBM ASP to increase 122% YoY to $3.7/GB in 2027, driving HBM industry revenue growth of more than 230% YoY to exceed $200 billion. TrendForce said that pricing may vary materially by supplier and customer, with a wide variance where the high-end of the pricing for HBM4 could reach over $5/GB while the low-end closer to $3/GB for next year."
"TrendForce believes 8-hi HBM4 could command 5–10% premium over 12-hi on a per-bit basis due to higher base-die cost per memory unit, while pricing for HBM4E next year could be materially higher than HBM4 pricing. We believe TrendForce's view to be consistent with our expectations, as we currently estimate HBM ASP for next year to rise 100-160% YoY for the major suppliers."
$MU $DRAM $EWY
Alex A.C. retweeted
$SKHY during earnings call:
"We believe our share price today is undervalued, not adequately reflecting our earnings and cash flow. That is why we decided that share acquisition and cancellation would be an effective way of raising the per share value.
The acquisition will continue every quarter within the annual size, and the size of the quarterly acquisition will be determined by the board of directors considering such factors as the share price, valuation, cash flow, and so forth."
Couldn't agree more.
It was undervalued even in June.
Alex A.C. retweeted
$SKHY: "Demand remains so strong that customers' volume requirement is more than double that of what we can supply today."
Alex A.C. retweeted
Gavin Baker predicts cloud revenue growth will keep accelerating and more of the 2027 AI build-out than people think will be financed out of cash flow
“So all these clouds, they signed contracts at well below market values. And as those contracts reprice higher, as they bring on more compute with more spot, like we discussed, the same thing that CoreWeave is trying to do, I do think you’re going to see, like, there’s a pretty big acceleration in the clouds last quarter.”
“And forget relative to expectations, this or that, but I think you’re gonna see a pretty continuous acceleration in the sum of the big hyperscalers’ cloud revenue growth, the neoclouds. That number is just going to continue to accelerate.”
“And then it’s dropping down at very high margins so that operating cash flow is following. And then you’re gonna be able to finance probably more than people think of the 2027 build-out out of cash flow. I don’t know if we’ve seen the peak of external financing, but I think we’re getting close.”
Gavin Baker says Elon Musk giving every child in America a share of SpaceX is way better for America than a foundation, and more wealthy people should do what Elon, Michael Dell, and Brad Gerstner have done
“And maybe some of them will do what Elon did. You know, every child in America is going to have a share of SpaceX. That’s awesome. I think that’s way better for America than setting up some foundation that, you know, a board or a bunch of bureaucrats are going to decide how to allocate the money.”
“You know, just give people the money. Just let people make individual decisions. And I would encourage more companies and more wealthy people in America to do what Elon and Michael Dell and, of course, my friend Brad Gerstner have done.”
Alex A.C. retweeted
Cignal AI expects line systems to overtake coherent pluggables in spending on AI networks connecting multiple data-center sites by 2028.
$CIEN $NOK
Its October 21 forecast puts the line-system share at
29% in 2026
57% in 2030
These are the systems that carry and amplify the optical signals along the fiber routes between sites.
The total market for this specific application is forecast to reach $9.1B in 2030.
Applying the 57% share gives roughly $5.2B for line systems, my calculation from Cignal’s estimates.
I think that puts a lot more weight on the equipment along the route when evaluating the opportunity for Ciena and Nokia.
There’s also a component readthrough for $LITE.
Cignal identifies Raman amplification as a major cost driver and its pump lasers as one of the tightest parts of the supply chain. Lumentum offers those lasers and the amplifiers built around them.
As clusters spread across more sites, the distance between them can change how the optical budget gets divided.
In this specific forecast, the majority eventually goes into the line systems.
Alex A.C. retweeted
BREAKING: Verizon CEO admits he assumes everything SpaceX says it will do, it will do, and execute flawlessly, and says he takes its terrestrial moves "quite seriously"
Dan Schulman (CEO): “I also operate under the assumption that everything SpaceX says they will do, they will do, and that they will execute flawlessly. That’s my operating assumption on it. I think to assume anything else, makes no sense from my perspective."
"And everything that we’ve seen so far, all of their announcements, everything we’re hearing in the market, and I’ll talk about that in just a second, is so far the path that we’ve basically predicted that they would do."
"We always knew that they needed a terrestrial network to have any chance at providing a competitive service. I don’t really need to re-review the satellite beam physics, but just suffice to say that without a terrestrial network, their addressable market for broadband services is relatively small.”
"It’s in very rural areas, and their service just can’t compete with a terrestrial network. In suburban and urban areas where like 98% of our revenues are, we’re somewhere between 100 to 1,000 times more efficient than they are. And when you think about wireless, it’s even more difficult with them to compete on a satellite basis."
"And so I think that SpaceX realizes this, and they’re exploring a potential path to creating a terrestrial network. It’s not surprising they said it on their call, so I think we should take it quite seriously.”
Elon Musk explains how to build AI satellites on the moon from lunar silicon and aluminum, and says 500 to 1,000 terawatts a year cannot be launched from Earth
“Well, the lunar soil is 20% silicon or something like that. So you can mine the silicon on the moon, refine it, and create the solar cells and the radiators on the moon. So get the radiators out of aluminum. So there’s plenty of silicon and aluminum on the moon to make the cells and the radiators. The chips you could send from Earth because they’re pretty light. But maybe at some point you make them on the moon, too."
"Like I said, it does seem like a sort of a video game situation where it’s difficult but not impossible to get to the next level. I don’t see any way that you could do 500 to 1,000 terawatts per year launched from Earth.”
Alex A.C. retweeted
$GLW
🚨 CORNING'S AI FIBER BUSINESS IS NOW ITS PROFIT ENGINE: OPTICAL EARNS 1.6X WHAT GLASS DOES, AND EVEN THE LOW END OF THE Q4 GUIDE CLEARS THE STREET
CORNING, N.Y., Oct. 27 - Corning ($GLW) reported third-quarter 2026 results before the open. Core sales grew 19% to $5.08 billion, its fastest growth since the Springboard plan began, and core EPS grew 36% to $0.91, against a $0.88 consensus.
- Optical Communications sales $2.38 billion, up 44% from a year earlier and 15% from Q2
- Enterprise Networks up 84%, with Gen AI product sales more than doubling
- Core gross margin 40.5%, up 150 bp; core operating margin 22.7%, up 310 bp
- Q4 guide: core sales $5.2 billion to $5.3 billion, core EPS $0.96 to $1.00, against a $0.93 consensus
- Four long-term, multibillion-dollar customer agreements signed in Q3, including Verizon and AT&T
CEO Wendell Weeks said Gen AI sales doubled in the quarter, "outpacing GPU unit growth."
I put this quarter's segment table next to Q3 2025. A year ago Glass Innovations, the old display and specialty glass businesses, earned $363 million and optical earned $295 million. This quarter optical earned $532 million and glass earned $328 million. Optical also supplied about 90% of Corning's sales growth, both from a year earlier and from Q2.
A year ago glass paid the bills and fiber was the growth story. Now fiber is both.
Alex A.C. retweeted
I think it's very important to start distinguishing vocabulary between what's known as the neocloud sector.
The mistake many are still making is mixing in together every company that buys, builds, or hosts GPUs and datacenters.
There are significant differences between players like $NBIS that are pulling together full stack software and hardware cloud and managed inference services and companies that are simply providing bare metal, or even some that are just accumulating energy.
There are a number of subcategories within this space that need to start being broken down; to be transparent the moats are completely different, as will be there access to financing through any squeeze in capital markets.
Will be posting more on this soon. @SMASIMHO has done a great job of pushing more individual language when it comes to Nebius in particular.
As we are seeing with the basket selling across the sector and even confusion surrounding posts by @elonmusk , it's never been more important to educate both retail and institutional investors (many of which are STILL just taking revenue and guessing on a multiplier to model out this buildout).
We have always believed, at Northwise, that not all of these players will make it and that there will be a period of consolidation. This can be seen in every sector to have ever existed. There's nothing wrong or unusual about it.
During every sectorial boom there is VC like period where investors bet on a quantity of horses rather than the pack leaders. Every time there is a shift, once investors begin to realize that there are clear quality leaders.
This Short term period of anxiety surrounding the markets is a phenomenal time to reevaluate our approach as independent viewers of the sector.
You'll see shortly how massive the capex is going to be in 2027-2028 in our eyes.
It's our responsibility to better educate why companies like Nebius are not going to struggle to raise tens of billions, but also acknowledge this is the exception not the indefinite norm.