AnotherBioInvestor

I´m at 60-80% it´ll pay 5 mln (gross) next year. RXRX just had a re-prio of their pipeline and REC-102 explicitly survived. I guess first patient dosed in P1 (trigger for 5 mln for CVR) realistically happening mid 2027, maybe a tad earlier? If I use the implied sharecount from the dividend, that´s ~0.83$/CVR gross. Other than that I have zero expectations. Just to avoid confusion, it trades ex CVR already.

$RLYB crawling towards merger closing. Took another look at valuation. At PIPE price with Tier1 investors, company was valued at ~535mln Equity Value with ~297 mln in cash is my guess (PIPE + Avenzo bringing decent cash, >100 mln in June) -> 240 mln EV. At current RLYB price of 15.6$ , NewCo is valued at 365mln market cap for an EV of only ~70 mln. 32% discount to market cap, 70% discount to EV compared to merger valuation. (All numbers ex div) EGFR/Her3 bispecific (AVZO-1418) with updated Ph1 data on Nov 18. Just in October $BMY had pretty strong data for this MoA (see picture - maybe even too strong?). Let´s see, will be interesting as the stock will be quite a low floater after dividend of 13.9$ is out of the stock. Think very decent risk/reward with large discount to PIPE. What´s the worst case here, losing 1 buck? With 1.3$ upside to just the price investors paid in PIPE to invest 215mln $

$XBI always amazing how biotech gets pulled into any high beta drawdown no matter how unrelated. Even down more than $QQQ as I´m typing and that´s with all the pharma stocks in there. Pretty remarkable. Anyway, buying a bit here or there, but lots of stocks didn´t move too much on a two-day-basis tbh. Apart from the stuff I wrote about, like $NRIX here, $KYTX appears cheap to me, $BEAM now flat after great regulatory news. Also gambling a bit in more spec stuff ($LXEO $QURE & more stuff wating to gap down 50% into your face). Reducing my $XBI hedges a bit but feel bad about that. Which might be a good sign?

$AVR Add $EW reaching 5B$ runrate and increasing guidance to the pile of bullish developments over last year

Nah. We´re still probably 5-8 months from full enrollment and then a further 12-14 from readout, still early. What I will say is that my enthusiasm for sure has not waned. I mean we had a huge M&A comp with MiRus, insider buying a nice chunk above 9$ and a pretty insane comp package with 21.5$ / 41 $ / 61.5$ stock VWAP as a necessity to trigger the PSUs. teapawt.org/AnotherBio/status/2057… teapawt.org/AnotherBio/status/2062… teapawt.org/AnotherBio/status/2102…

Was MdG last year. Guess he has a beer and jumps on the plane to Florida to be a few days early, so he can chill a bit in the sun and watch the bids come in 🙃

special div was upped to 3.535$/share estimate as of now

Was at Equity Forum Frankfurt last year. Pretty funny, like about 15 people in the room (space for ~150-200) for one of the most hyped biotechs. Really no idea what they´re doing there

Was up 50%+ already for a couple of weeks? Pretty happy so far. Materially reduced cost basis & little to no headache. But sure, no outperformer till date. Pretty confident the stock will work again, timing will depend largely on enrollment progress is my guess.

The company expects it to be not subject to withhlding tax / regular dividend treatment if the dividend is paid after the merger which is what is happening? If however it were not treated as a return of capital (which triggers no us taxes), only a part of the dividend would be subject to taxation afaik. But yeah, company says it should be treated as a return of capital if paid after closing and they´re paying after closing.

Hahahaha I think there are 2 possibilities: 1) Adar1 and Perceptive gave the blessing for this deal and we will see a decent financing and recovery 2) They did not and we ded I´m mostly waiting for now. In theory you must be braindead to do such a deal against your two largest, very respectable shareholders as such a ShitCo, but it IS biotech lol. FWIW I like that the deal is a late stage asset with somewhat fast path to market. There are some quirks in the data, but then again they bought it for just a couple million $? Looks like an interesting long shot to me and the stock is cheap. But if they did the deal without backing from Adar1+Perceptive, they will probably have a hard time raising at decent terms. So we´re back to 1) or 2)

For sure and that´s why I usually pitch baskets. I will and never have put any of your inevitable misses against you. It´s biotech, part of the game (of probabilities) and one should size accordingly. Anyway, best of luck with North. Hope you succeed, regardless of my position. Man, immediately getting a slap on the head if I get pumpy once. Didn´t want to put you in an awkward position

Don´t row back on me lol teapawt.org/Biohazard3737/status/2…

True. In the end, they need a strong PIPE (implying decent asset selection / investor interest) which will dominate the outcome and public perception anway. Unique thing about TIL is that it is the shell with the largest discount to book if I´m not completely off, so the margin of safety is larger than on other names already implying 70%+ PoS for a decent merger. Shitty asset / transaction always a risk in these names anyway. But we´ve seen the most horrible shells getting strong deals (thinking NXTC / CYCN / AEMD kind of stuff) and clean, large shells doing rather boring stuff (FULC RLYB maybe) and I haven´t found a reliable way to predict quality. But a financial margin of safety sure doesn´t hurt

7) Monitoring / having a 10bps starter in some others but they are either tiny or a huge piece of shit (mostly both lol), maybe interesting at a later date.

6) $ARTV from yesterday. I guesstimate they will have 4.6$/share in net cash mid year 2027 but I might be very wrong on the cost of monitoring existing patients (to prevent further deaths). Still, it is a large cash shell so impact will not be that huge. The very large caps though often don´t have that strong of a reaction (see FULC), so maybe you´re better off waiting for better prices or even buying after an announcement? Hope they will pay a large dividend as well, in which case the risk to buying this here sub 4.3$ is probably negligible. Obv shell value has not that much of an impact on a ~235 mln$ market cap. Tend to think I´m a bit early too this, but I like to be involved early to get to know the stock / tape and we have seen some very quick transactions recently (sub 60 days from strategic alternatives announcement until DA)

5) $TXMD still in legal limbo, but even an adverse outcome against Mayne is priced in imo and a shell value of 15-20 makes this obviously even better if they RM. Wrong on this timeline wise so far, but I think the case still holds. teapawt.org/AnotherBio/status/2087…

4) $SNGX is almost certainly in advanced discussions (Aug3: "While we are in some later-stage discussions, as of the date of this letter, we have not entered into any definitive agreements"). Will bring 5-15 cents of net cash into a merger, but if you include the shell value... Let´s just say the market cap is 8 mln$ and you do the math! So you´re very screwed if they don´t do a RM but why wouldn´t they? Deal could also be bad if mgmt clings to its jobs (XBIO was a recent bust if you need a negative example). Very risky and illiquid but upside is.. do the math!

3) $ARTV from yesterday. I guesstimate they will have 4.6$/share in net cash mid year 2027 but I might be very wrong on the cost of monitoring existing patients (to prevent further deaths). Still, it is a large cash shell so impact will not be that huge. The very large caps though often don´t have that strong of a reaction (see FULC), so maybe you´re better off waiting for better prices or even buying after an announcement? Hope they will pay a large dividend as well, in which case the risk to buying this here sub 4.3$ is probably negligible. Obv shell value has not that much of an impact on a ~235 mln$ market cap.