Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd.
Joined April 2024
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Quant Chad retweeted
Polyguana is aware of the php2shell exploit, eMudhra (emSign) CA leak & Node.js CVE-2026-111497.
Don't care. Because
- we do NOT use PHP
- we do NOT use Indian root certificates (not even in our packages)
Points distributing as expected & Still the cheapest prices in prediction markets
NEW STUDY : Polymarket KOLs are bad traders and you will lose money if you follow them.
We all knew it, but it's nice to finally have proof.
A study by Prediction Market Census tracked 307 Polymarket influencers, their wallets and the call they made on social media.
Here's what they discovered 👇
1. Their calls are trash.
Researchers matched 162 public KOL trading calls to their earlier trades.
On those exact same bets:
- avg. KOL return: +12.3%
- avg. Follower entering when posted: −2.4%
If you see a KOL posting shilling a trade opportunity, it's already too late and they are using you as exit liquidity.
1. KOLs are WORST traders than average.
> 57.5% of KOL accounts lost money trading.
> 50.5% of non-KOL accounts with similar trading volumes lose money.
So remember. No competent trader is going to give you free alpha.
If they have alpha, they will keep it to themselves.
If they pretend to have alpha, they are farming you for refferal revenue.
that's actuall exactly what @ZEITFinance is doing with their worldviews app.zeit.finance/worldview/
This gem of an article went almost unnoticed. Go read it
frontofficesports.com/articl…
Kalshi just got scammed by a fake Indian Chief !
They wanted to sign a deal with a tribe to launch a Kalshi branded prediction market.
but the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR.
Kalshi is trying to gain the support of Native American by bribing they with juicy partnerships.
They thought they had struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, Chief of the Quassarte tribe.
Except Wilson Yargee was not the real chief.
the next the actual Chief of the Quassarte denounced the deal saying :
- His leadership NEVER approved the deal.
- He only discovered it through a CNN report.
- The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe.
Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power. Samuel Marshall Jr. (legit) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions.
Now the legality of the deal rests on this succession dispute :
> The legitimist faction behind Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief.
> The impostor faction, backed by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief.
Kalshi thought they were smart trying to buy the support of tribes before their supreme court case and now they are stuck solving Tribal succession disputes.
Well deserved.
Quant Chad retweeted
LMAO Kalshi just signed a deal with a fake tribal chief !
They tried to sign with a Native American tribe to launch a Kalshi partnered prediction market.
Except the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR.
Kalshi has been trying to court the support of Native tribes with the following deal :
- The tribes launch their own branded prediction market apps.
- Kalshi provides the exchange, liquidity and infrastructure.
- Tribes receive a percentage of trading fees.
They already signed 5 tribes and thought they had just signed a 6th when they struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, the chief of the Alabama-Quassarte tribe.
But the next day, Samuel Marshall, claiming to be the actual Chief denounced the deal saying :
- His leadership NEVER approved the deal.
- He only discovered it through a CNN report.
- The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe.
Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power.
Samuel Marshall Jr. (real) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions.
Now this dispute turns into a legal conflict :
> The legitimist faction behind Samuel Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief.
> The impostor faction, supported by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief.
Kalshi tried cynically buy the support of Native Americans tribes in their upcoming supreme court battle for the legality of prediction markets.
Now they are looking forward to a long legal process trying to adjudicate a Triblal succession dispute.
Quant Chad retweeted
Robinhood allegedly preparing a NINE-FIGURE grant program for Robinhood Chain.
That's >$100M for builders.
Most of it likely going to Prediction Markets.
that's *at least* 100x the previous $1M grant program they announced in February.
This will make RobinHood chain's activity EXPLODE.
The initial hype and grant program made growth skyrocket when they launched the chain in July.
in only 2 months from launch RobinHood achieved:
- $53.3B in monthly DEX volume
- 10.8M daily transactions peak
- Over $1B in stablecoin supply
But since mid September, the momentum started fading :
- Daily transactions down 42%
- Active addresses down 31%
- Bridge TVL down from $855M in September to $648M now.
I see this play as a massive cash injection by Robinhood to try and regain their early momentum
If we go by the previous program the money will be distributed to teams building :
- Tokenized asset infrastructure
- AI-powered financial services
- Credit and lending protocols
- *Prediction market infrastructure*
This is an amazing opportunity for builders in the space.
Because let's be real, Polymarket/Kalshi never really went out of their ways to reward builders.
No real grants. No promotion. No technical support.
So If you are a Prediction Market builder I strongly recommend you look into the incoming RobinHood grant program.
the future of Prediction Markets might be on RobinHood chain.
Quant Chad retweeted
Haseeb is NOT telling you the full truth!
Here’s what actually happened behind closed doors with Shayne, Tarek, Peter Thiel, Mustafa, ICE, and one key player Bloomberg conveniently left out (you already know who).
This is total nonsense.
We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece.
Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living hand-to-mouth running the company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together.
After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception.
But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else.
It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal.
Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him.
Enough of this stupid FUD.
The end.
