Collin County, Texas might wind up being James Talarico's Waterloo. It's a 'burb county at the north end of the DFW metroplex. Plano and McKinney are the big cities there. It's a red county that's been lightening in hue as Democrats move there from other states. In 2016, Trump won the state by 9, but he won Collin County was 16.4%, R+7.4. In 2018, Cruz won the state by 2.6%, Collin County by 6.1%, R+3.5. In 2020, Trump won the state by 5.6%, Collin County by 4.3%, D+1.2. In 2022, Abbott won the state by 10.9%, Collin County by 10%, D+0.9. In 2024, Trump won the state by 13.7%, Collin County by 11.1%, D+2.6. Now here's why Collin is the bellwether. Roughly 5% of Collin County votes early by mail. That's not their preference in how they vote. They have a propensity for in person early voting much more than Election Day. @Geiger_Capital has been all over this. Outside of the COVID year of 2020, at least 85% of their population voted early in person, and that early vote was within a point of the final Election day tally. Unlike other counties, in Collin, going back a decade, you really can glean what'll happen on Election Day from early voting data. Now take current polling. If Talarico is up two statewide, and Collin County matches their shift to the left of where the state goes, Talarico has to win here. At absolute minimum, he has to tie Paxton. If Paxton is up a couple in polling, Talarico still has to win the county if you account for the Democrat lean. If Paxton wins Collin County outright, even by a small margin, he'll win the state. Enter @theoelections. In 3 days of early in-person voting, although Texas doesn't release data by party ID, they do release voter rosters, and from that, you can extrapolate. If someone on the roster that has early voted in Collin also voted in 1, 2, 3, or 4 Republican primaries since 2020, that accounts for 36.4% of what's coming so far. Voters that also voted in 1, 2, 3, or 4 Democratic primaries since 2020 account for 31%, or a R+5.4% edge after three days. Those that have not voted in any partisan primary since 2020 (a mix of Indies and/or new residents), are 28.2%. Could a big chunk of those Republican voters cross over for Talarico over Paxton? Sure, it's possible. But it doesn't seem very likely if they have the propensity to have voted in repeated primary cycles. Will every indie/newbie vote for Talarico? Sure, it could happen, but statistical probabilities would tell you the most likely outcome is that 28% will split. The bottom line is if proven Republican voters are ahead of proven Democrats, and that continues through next week going into Election Day, Talarico will not win Collin County. And if he's not getting the turnout he needs in an increasingly friendly county, he's not going to get that turnout in bluer areas as well and Paxton will become senator. The blue wave is simply not there.